Amid negotations and escalations in the process of moving USMCA through Congress, Trump has decided to go after one on America's closest trade partners: "On June 10th, the United States will impose a 5% Tariff on all goods coming into our Country from Mexico, until such time as illegal migrants coming through Mexico, and into our Country, STOP. The Tariff will gradually increase until the Illegal Immigration problem is remedied, at which time the Tariffs will be removed. Details from the White House to follow."
The White House warning that it will hike Mexico tariffs to 25% by October 1, if the border crisis persists, as Trump is activating a scorched earth approach whereby he will "punish" any offshore nation that he believes is transgressing, by imposing tariffs.
Meanwhile, moments after Trump's shock tweet, the Mexican deputy foreign minister Seade said that if President's threat to impose tariffs is carried out, "it would be disastrous", and Mexico would "respond strongly", adding that "we will not remain with out arms folded" before the tariff deadline "to see if it is serious."
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DAILY BUSINESS REPORT - Financial Updates, International Markets and Business News
May 31, 2019
May 30, 2019
Japan Is About To Sell Its First Ever Junk Bond... With A 1% Coupon
While corporate bond yields have been plumbing ever lower lows in the yield-starved "New Normal", prompting even the world's largest bond fund Pimco to warn that this is the riskiest credit market ever, Japan is about to deliver the proverbial "hold my beer" moment to the entire world.
Aiful, the consumer lender which almost went bankrupt a decade ago, is preparing to sell Japan’s first ever yen-denominated "high yield" - and in this case we use the term very, very loosely - in the public markets, showing how desperate for yield local investors are, and how much risk they are willing to take in exchange for virtually no return, as negative interest rates have now become the new normal.
What is most remarkable about the bond sale in the country where the 10Y yield has been trading mostly in negative territory for over half a decade, is that the 18 month yen junk bond is set to price on Friday with a coupon of, wait for it, 1%.
Another unique aspect of the upcoming issuance is that it is taking place in the first place. As Bloomberg notes, the junk bond offering will be historic for Japan's bond market, where companies haven’t felt compelled to sell below investment grade notes as they’ve traditionally had close ties with banks, who tend to be more forgiving than bondholders in tough times.
Read the entire article
Aiful, the consumer lender which almost went bankrupt a decade ago, is preparing to sell Japan’s first ever yen-denominated "high yield" - and in this case we use the term very, very loosely - in the public markets, showing how desperate for yield local investors are, and how much risk they are willing to take in exchange for virtually no return, as negative interest rates have now become the new normal.
What is most remarkable about the bond sale in the country where the 10Y yield has been trading mostly in negative territory for over half a decade, is that the 18 month yen junk bond is set to price on Friday with a coupon of, wait for it, 1%.
Another unique aspect of the upcoming issuance is that it is taking place in the first place. As Bloomberg notes, the junk bond offering will be historic for Japan's bond market, where companies haven’t felt compelled to sell below investment grade notes as they’ve traditionally had close ties with banks, who tend to be more forgiving than bondholders in tough times.
Read the entire article
May 29, 2019
Russian Central Bank Eyes Gold-Backed Crypto
First there was Tether; a controversial dollar-backed cryptocurrency by crypto exchange firm, Bitfinex. Then came Petro, the industry’s first oil-backed crypto issued by the Venezuelan government last year. And now we might be about to see the first gold-backed cryptocurrency—by a central bank, no less. According to Russian news agency, TASS, Russia’s central bank, the Bank of Russia will consider issuing gold-backed cryptocurrencies - a rather strange move considering how cryptocurrencies are generally anathema to central banks.
Shot in the arm
But before crypto bugs can start doing a round of high fives, the head of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, has revealed that the cryptocurrencies are not meant for retail use but rather for conducting big mutual settlements for entities with global jurisdictions.
In other words, only the heavyweights will get to lay their hands on them. Further, she says that she still believes that it’s better for countries to develop international settlement systems such as the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) framework that use their own national currencies noting the said framework has demonstrated good dynamics.
Finally, she admonishes that the latest twist should not be interpreted to mean that the bank supports a scenario where cryptocurrencies eventually replace fiat in the monetary system.
Read the entire article
Shot in the arm
But before crypto bugs can start doing a round of high fives, the head of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, has revealed that the cryptocurrencies are not meant for retail use but rather for conducting big mutual settlements for entities with global jurisdictions.
In other words, only the heavyweights will get to lay their hands on them. Further, she says that she still believes that it’s better for countries to develop international settlement systems such as the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) framework that use their own national currencies noting the said framework has demonstrated good dynamics.
Finally, she admonishes that the latest twist should not be interpreted to mean that the bank supports a scenario where cryptocurrencies eventually replace fiat in the monetary system.
Read the entire article
May 28, 2019
American Soil Is Being Globalized: Nearly 30 Million Acres Of U.S. Farmland Is Now Owned By Foreigners
All across America, U.S. farmland is being gobbled up by foreign interests. So when we refer to “the heartland of America”, the truth is that vast stretches of that “heartland” is now owned by foreigners, and most Americans have no idea that this is happening. These days, a lot of people are warning about the “globalization” of the world economy, but in reality our own soil is rapidly being “globalized”. When farms are locally owned, the revenue that those farms take in tends to stay in local communities. But with foreign-owned farms there is no guarantee that will happen. And while there is plenty of food to go around this is not a major concern, but what happens when a food crisis erupts and these foreign-owned farms just keep sending their produce out of the country? There are some very serious national security concerns here, and they really aren’t being addressed. Instead, the amount of farmland owned by foreigners just continues to increase with each passing year.
Prior to seeing the headline to this article, how much U.S. farmland would you have guessed that foreigners now own?
Personally, I had no idea that foreigners now own nearly 30 million acres. The following comes from NPR…
Read the entire article
Prior to seeing the headline to this article, how much U.S. farmland would you have guessed that foreigners now own?
Personally, I had no idea that foreigners now own nearly 30 million acres. The following comes from NPR…
Read the entire article
May 27, 2019
Is 2019 About To Repeat 2018? 3 Similarities, 3 Differences... And JPM's Ominous Conclusion
For several months at the start of 2019, analysts, pundits and the media argued that the year was shaping up as a mirror image of 2016, and specifically a repeat of the Shanghai Accord in January 2016 which resulted in a global credit explosion emanating from China and meant to arrest the global bear market. To be sure, in January of 2019 we saw a similar "gargantuan" credit tsunami out of China after the injection of an unprecedented 4.64 trillion yuan in January.
However, several months later, it appears that China's determination to reflate at all costs fizzled, Europe failed to piggy back on China's spike in the credit impulse, and suddenly comparisons to 2016 were quietly scrubbed. This is how Horseman Global's Russell Clark explained the shift in sentiment:
Markets turned around in 2016 when it became obvious that the Chinese policy of cutting capacity and pushing up commodity prices was the real deal. This was Chinese policy to create inflation internally to the benefit of corporates and the financial sector. However, it seems these polices have been reversed, and share prices of Chinese steel companies and banks are beginning to reflect these problems again. If the US dollar stays strong, and China cannot create inflation internally, then they are going to be forced to devalue. Many of the long positions of the fund began to reflect this at the end of April, including mining stocks and currencies.
As a result, Clark writes that "the likelihood of sustained inflation is beginning to disappear" and "deflation again looks more likely, just as it did from 2011 to 2016."
Read the entire article
However, several months later, it appears that China's determination to reflate at all costs fizzled, Europe failed to piggy back on China's spike in the credit impulse, and suddenly comparisons to 2016 were quietly scrubbed. This is how Horseman Global's Russell Clark explained the shift in sentiment:
Markets turned around in 2016 when it became obvious that the Chinese policy of cutting capacity and pushing up commodity prices was the real deal. This was Chinese policy to create inflation internally to the benefit of corporates and the financial sector. However, it seems these polices have been reversed, and share prices of Chinese steel companies and banks are beginning to reflect these problems again. If the US dollar stays strong, and China cannot create inflation internally, then they are going to be forced to devalue. Many of the long positions of the fund began to reflect this at the end of April, including mining stocks and currencies.
As a result, Clark writes that "the likelihood of sustained inflation is beginning to disappear" and "deflation again looks more likely, just as it did from 2011 to 2016."
Read the entire article
May 24, 2019
Vicious Cycle: The Pentagon Creates Tech Giants & Then Buys Their Services
The US Department of Defense’s bloated budget, along with CIA venture capital, helped to create tech giants, including Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google and PayPal. The government then contracts those companies to help its military and intelligence operations. In doing so, it makes the tech giants even bigger.
In recent years, the traditional banking, energy and industrial Fortune 500 companies have been losing ground to tech giants like Apple and Facebook. But the technology on which they rely emerged from the taxpayer-funded research and development of bygone decades. The internet started as ARPANET, an invention of Honeywell-Raytheon working under a Department of Defense (DoD) contract. The same satellites that enable modern internet communications also enable US jets to bomb their enemies, as does the GPS that enables online retailers to deliver products with pinpoint accuracy. Apple’s touchscreen technology originated as a US Air Force tool. The same drones that record breath-taking video are modified versions of Reapers and Predators.
Tax-funded DoD research is the backbone of the modern, hi-tech economy. But these technologies are dual-use. The companies that many of us take for granted–including Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft and PayPal–are connected indirectly and sometimes very directly to the US military-intelligence complex.
Read the entire article
In recent years, the traditional banking, energy and industrial Fortune 500 companies have been losing ground to tech giants like Apple and Facebook. But the technology on which they rely emerged from the taxpayer-funded research and development of bygone decades. The internet started as ARPANET, an invention of Honeywell-Raytheon working under a Department of Defense (DoD) contract. The same satellites that enable modern internet communications also enable US jets to bomb their enemies, as does the GPS that enables online retailers to deliver products with pinpoint accuracy. Apple’s touchscreen technology originated as a US Air Force tool. The same drones that record breath-taking video are modified versions of Reapers and Predators.
Tax-funded DoD research is the backbone of the modern, hi-tech economy. But these technologies are dual-use. The companies that many of us take for granted–including Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft and PayPal–are connected indirectly and sometimes very directly to the US military-intelligence complex.
Read the entire article
May 23, 2019
World Trade War I: US Asks South Korea To Join Anti-Huawei Campaign
The bilateral trade war between the US and China is gradually becoming a global trade war of global geopolitical and commercial dominance between the US and Chinese spheres of influence.
Shortly after the two largest mobile phone companies in the UK decided against launching Huawei-built 5G phones this morning, and roughly around the time a bevy of Japanese tech and telecom companies including ARM Holdings, Panasonic and SoftBank all imposed a boycott on supplying Huawei with mission critical components joining Australia, and New Zealand as major US allies to end commercial relations with Huawei following the US decision to crack down on the Chinese telecom giant (see "Huawei Feels U.S. Squeeze in U.K., Japan as Partners Curb Business") the White House is now pressuring another critical Chinese trading partner - South Korea - to cease ties with Huawei.
According to the Chosun Ilbo newspaper, the US recently asked South Korean government to support and join its anti-Huawei campaign.
Forcing Seoul to pick sides in a fight it would rather stay out of - especially since both sides still bear a distinct grudge from the Korean war - the US delivered a message several times to S. Korea’s Foreign Ministry that "using Huawei products may cause security problems" and as a result, the US requested S. Korea’s "active" support of US policy toward China as South Korea is seen as an American ally.
Read the entire article
Shortly after the two largest mobile phone companies in the UK decided against launching Huawei-built 5G phones this morning, and roughly around the time a bevy of Japanese tech and telecom companies including ARM Holdings, Panasonic and SoftBank all imposed a boycott on supplying Huawei with mission critical components joining Australia, and New Zealand as major US allies to end commercial relations with Huawei following the US decision to crack down on the Chinese telecom giant (see "Huawei Feels U.S. Squeeze in U.K., Japan as Partners Curb Business") the White House is now pressuring another critical Chinese trading partner - South Korea - to cease ties with Huawei.
According to the Chosun Ilbo newspaper, the US recently asked South Korean government to support and join its anti-Huawei campaign.
Forcing Seoul to pick sides in a fight it would rather stay out of - especially since both sides still bear a distinct grudge from the Korean war - the US delivered a message several times to S. Korea’s Foreign Ministry that "using Huawei products may cause security problems" and as a result, the US requested S. Korea’s "active" support of US policy toward China as South Korea is seen as an American ally.
Read the entire article
May 22, 2019
Yuan, Futures Slide On Reports Trump Administration Expands China Tech Blacklist
US equity futures are sliding as Asian markets open after a NYTimes report that the Trump administration is considering limits to a Chinese video surveillance giant’s ability to buy American technology.
Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology, a company controlled by the Chinese government, is now the world's largest supplier of video surveillance equipment, with internet-enabled cameras installed in more than 100 countries.
The move would effectively place the company on a United States blacklist, and as NYT notes, it also would mark the first time the Trump administration punished a Chinese company for its role in the surveillance and mass detention of Uighurs, a mostly Muslim ethnic minority.
And this escalation has sparked selling in stocks...
Congress and the administration have responded with other measures that may clamp down on Hikvision’s business. Congress included a provision in its 2019 military spending authorization bill that banned federal agencies from using Chinese video surveillance products made by Hikvision or Dahua.
Read the entire article
Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology, a company controlled by the Chinese government, is now the world's largest supplier of video surveillance equipment, with internet-enabled cameras installed in more than 100 countries.
The move would effectively place the company on a United States blacklist, and as NYT notes, it also would mark the first time the Trump administration punished a Chinese company for its role in the surveillance and mass detention of Uighurs, a mostly Muslim ethnic minority.
And this escalation has sparked selling in stocks...
Congress and the administration have responded with other measures that may clamp down on Hikvision’s business. Congress included a provision in its 2019 military spending authorization bill that banned federal agencies from using Chinese video surveillance products made by Hikvision or Dahua.
Read the entire article
May 21, 2019
Beijing Warns Of "Unwavering Resolve" In Huawei Fight, Accuses Washington Of "Bullying & Blackmail"
As the anti-American sloganeering reaches an unprecedented level of froth (there's now an unofficial trade war 'fight song') across China, the Commerce Department has softened its anti-Huawei stance, calling for a 90-day reprieve to allow American broadband companies more time to work out a 'Plan B'.
The delay will cover continued operation of existing networks and equipment, as well as support to existing handsets and other limited actions, according to Bloomberg.
But that's not even the biggest trade headline of the morning, as analysts wonder how Beijing will retaliate for the war on Huawei. Anyone who thinks Beijing won't respond is being naive, China's ambassador to the EU warned Tuesday. China will provide a "necessary response" to Washington's "wrong behavior."
"This is wrong behavior, so there will be a necessary response," Zhang Ming, China’s envoy to the EU, said in an interview in Brussels on Monday. "Chinese companies’ legitimate rights and interests are being undermined, so the Chinese government will not sit idly by."
Read the entire article
The delay will cover continued operation of existing networks and equipment, as well as support to existing handsets and other limited actions, according to Bloomberg.
But that's not even the biggest trade headline of the morning, as analysts wonder how Beijing will retaliate for the war on Huawei. Anyone who thinks Beijing won't respond is being naive, China's ambassador to the EU warned Tuesday. China will provide a "necessary response" to Washington's "wrong behavior."
"This is wrong behavior, so there will be a necessary response," Zhang Ming, China’s envoy to the EU, said in an interview in Brussels on Monday. "Chinese companies’ legitimate rights and interests are being undermined, so the Chinese government will not sit idly by."
Read the entire article
May 20, 2019
Huawei will not bow to US pressure: founder
Chinese telecoms giant Huawei is ready to deal with Washington’s crackdown and will reduce its reliance on US components, its founder told Japanese media.
President Donald Trump effectively barred Huawei from the US market on Wednesday and added it to a list which would restrict US sales to the firm amid an escalating trade war with Beijing.
“We have already been preparing for this,” Huawei founder and CEO Ren Zhengfei told a group of Japanese journalists Saturday in his first interview since Trump’s move.
Ren said Huawei would continue to develop its own components to reduce its dependence on outside suppliers.
Huawei is a rapidly expanding leader in 5G technology but remains dependent on foreign suppliers.
It buys about $67 billion worth of components each year, including about $11 billion from US suppliers, according to The Nikkei business daily.
The usually elusive Ren, 74, has come out of the shadows in recent months in the face of increasing pressure on his company.
Read the entire article
President Donald Trump effectively barred Huawei from the US market on Wednesday and added it to a list which would restrict US sales to the firm amid an escalating trade war with Beijing.
“We have already been preparing for this,” Huawei founder and CEO Ren Zhengfei told a group of Japanese journalists Saturday in his first interview since Trump’s move.
Ren said Huawei would continue to develop its own components to reduce its dependence on outside suppliers.
Huawei is a rapidly expanding leader in 5G technology but remains dependent on foreign suppliers.
It buys about $67 billion worth of components each year, including about $11 billion from US suppliers, according to The Nikkei business daily.
The usually elusive Ren, 74, has come out of the shadows in recent months in the face of increasing pressure on his company.
Read the entire article
May 17, 2019
Trade Optimism Fizzles As China Says No Plans For More Talks
Well, it looks like President Trump finally did it. He finally pushed Beijing so hard on Huawei that they had no choice but to respond.
The Chinese weren't kidding when they warned that Washington's latest aggression toward Huawei - adding the Chinese telecoms giant to a blacklist that will make it extremely difficult, if not impossible, for Huawei to buy components from American companies - might crash trade talks.
Because after the Commerce Department formally added Huawei to the blacklist, the Chinese media and Chinese officials turned up the rhetoric, warning that there are no plans for another round of talks. Markets didn't take this well: Chinese stocks plunged 2.5% overnight on Friday - a big drop, though still not as bad as the 3% decline from last Monday,the market's worst day in three years. European shares didn't fare much better because, as one analyst explained to Bloomberg...
"The China state media commentaries fueled concerns that the U.S.-China trade disputes will prolong, deterring risk-taking," said Koji Fukaya, chief executive officer at FPG Securities Co. in Tokyo. "This issue will probably be one of the major market drivers for a while as U.S.-China trade war influences global economic conditions."
Read the entire article
The Chinese weren't kidding when they warned that Washington's latest aggression toward Huawei - adding the Chinese telecoms giant to a blacklist that will make it extremely difficult, if not impossible, for Huawei to buy components from American companies - might crash trade talks.
Because after the Commerce Department formally added Huawei to the blacklist, the Chinese media and Chinese officials turned up the rhetoric, warning that there are no plans for another round of talks. Markets didn't take this well: Chinese stocks plunged 2.5% overnight on Friday - a big drop, though still not as bad as the 3% decline from last Monday,the market's worst day in three years. European shares didn't fare much better because, as one analyst explained to Bloomberg...
"The China state media commentaries fueled concerns that the U.S.-China trade disputes will prolong, deterring risk-taking," said Koji Fukaya, chief executive officer at FPG Securities Co. in Tokyo. "This issue will probably be one of the major market drivers for a while as U.S.-China trade war influences global economic conditions."
Read the entire article
May 16, 2019
China's Huawei, 70 Affiliates Blacklisted By US Commerce Department
Reuters reports that the U.S. Commerce Department is adding Huawei Technologies Co Ltd and 70 affiliates to its so-called "Entity List" - a move that will make it much more difficult for the telecom giant to buy parts and components from U.S. companies. U.S. officials said the decision would also make it difficult for Huawei to sell some products because of its reliance on U.S. suppliers.
Department of Commerce Announces the Addition of Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. to the Entity List
WASHINGTON – Today, the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) of the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that it will be adding Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. and its affiliates to the Bureau’s Entity List. This action stems from information available to the Department that provides a reasonable basis to conclude that Huawei is engaged in activities that are contrary to U.S. national security or foreign policy interest. This information includes the activities alleged in the Department of Justice’s public superseding indictment of Huawei, including alleged violations of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), conspiracy to violate IEEPA by providing prohibited financial services to Iran, and obstruction of justice in connection with the investigation of those alleged violations of U.S. sanctions.
The sale or transfer of American technology to a company or person on the Entity List requires a license issued by BIS, and a license may be denied if the sale or transfer would harm U.S. national security or foreign policy interests. The listing will be effective when published in the Federal Register.
Read the entire article
Department of Commerce Announces the Addition of Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. to the Entity List
WASHINGTON – Today, the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) of the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that it will be adding Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. and its affiliates to the Bureau’s Entity List. This action stems from information available to the Department that provides a reasonable basis to conclude that Huawei is engaged in activities that are contrary to U.S. national security or foreign policy interest. This information includes the activities alleged in the Department of Justice’s public superseding indictment of Huawei, including alleged violations of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), conspiracy to violate IEEPA by providing prohibited financial services to Iran, and obstruction of justice in connection with the investigation of those alleged violations of U.S. sanctions.
The sale or transfer of American technology to a company or person on the Entity List requires a license issued by BIS, and a license may be denied if the sale or transfer would harm U.S. national security or foreign policy interests. The listing will be effective when published in the Federal Register.
Read the entire article
May 15, 2019
China 'Green Shoots' Are Dead - Retail Sales, Industrial Production, & FAI Slump
On the back of one better than expected soft survey PMI print, the world became convinced that as green shoots emerged, China was about to be reborn into magnificent credit-fuelled expansion and would save the world.
Tonight, that narrative died - everything missed expectations:
Retail sales rose just 7.2% (against +8.7% in March) - lowest since May 2003 (the 7.2% year-on-year rise in retail sales is actually weaker than all the estimates. The lowest was 7.5%, and the median was 8.6%)
Industrial Production growth slumped from a hope-filled +6.5% YTD YoY in March to 6.2%.
Fixed Asset Investment slowed to just 6.1% YoY.
Not green shoot-y!
Read the entire article
Tonight, that narrative died - everything missed expectations:
Retail sales rose just 7.2% (against +8.7% in March) - lowest since May 2003 (the 7.2% year-on-year rise in retail sales is actually weaker than all the estimates. The lowest was 7.5%, and the median was 8.6%)
Industrial Production growth slumped from a hope-filled +6.5% YTD YoY in March to 6.2%.
Fixed Asset Investment slowed to just 6.1% YoY.
Not green shoot-y!
Read the entire article
May 14, 2019
Gold, Bitcoin, & The Gigantic Global Debt Bubble
Today’s the first day in a long time financial markets appear willing to at least consider the reality of the geopolitical situation on the ground for what it is, as opposed to what most people would like it to be. As I’ve noted for months, the “trade war” is just one battle in a much larger, increasingly unstable struggle between the U.S. and China for global power and leverage to shape the next paradigm of world history.
A failure to appreciate how big this really is explains why investors have been so willing to swallow unrealistic happy talk from both sides. The risk that needs to be discounted in the market isn’t a risk of higher tariffs, but the risk of WW3. The U.S. and China were never going to sign a trade deal and blissfully return to the ways things were. That world is over. We now find ourselves in the very early days of a historic struggle to influence the future.
The Global Debt Bubble
At the core of everything unsustainable and destabilizing about the “old world” we live in, lies the ever expanding global debt bubble. In early 2018, I wrote an opinion piece for The Hill titled, Bitcoin Isn’t the Bubble — the Global Financial System Is, in which I noted:
While we’re on the topic of bubbles, it seems the truly gigantic bubble in the world isn’t bitcoin, but rather the global debt market. This leviathan now stands at around $233 trillion, or 318 percent of global GDP. Even more troubling, an estimated $11 trillion of government debt now trades at negative yields. This means whoever is buying this paper is doing so despite the fact they are guaranteed to lose money on the “investment.” Much of this buying has been propelled by central banks which can print their own currency and buy debt indiscriminately. This is not characteristic of a healthy financial system (particularly so many years into a global recovery), but rather a zombie one that’s been artificially propped up since the financial crisis.
Read the entire article
A failure to appreciate how big this really is explains why investors have been so willing to swallow unrealistic happy talk from both sides. The risk that needs to be discounted in the market isn’t a risk of higher tariffs, but the risk of WW3. The U.S. and China were never going to sign a trade deal and blissfully return to the ways things were. That world is over. We now find ourselves in the very early days of a historic struggle to influence the future.
The Global Debt Bubble
At the core of everything unsustainable and destabilizing about the “old world” we live in, lies the ever expanding global debt bubble. In early 2018, I wrote an opinion piece for The Hill titled, Bitcoin Isn’t the Bubble — the Global Financial System Is, in which I noted:
While we’re on the topic of bubbles, it seems the truly gigantic bubble in the world isn’t bitcoin, but rather the global debt market. This leviathan now stands at around $233 trillion, or 318 percent of global GDP. Even more troubling, an estimated $11 trillion of government debt now trades at negative yields. This means whoever is buying this paper is doing so despite the fact they are guaranteed to lose money on the “investment.” Much of this buying has been propelled by central banks which can print their own currency and buy debt indiscriminately. This is not characteristic of a healthy financial system (particularly so many years into a global recovery), but rather a zombie one that’s been artificially propped up since the financial crisis.
Read the entire article
May 13, 2019
Why One Bank Thinks That Much More Market Pain Will Be Needed To Close Any Trade Deal
Futures are sharply lower again after the weekend failed to provide any substantive evidence that the "constructive" tone suggested by both Steven Mnuchin and Liu He on Friday was present, and in fact, soundbites from both president Trump and Chinese media indicated that the latest trade war escalation may last well into 2020 without a resolution, with China potentially waiting to see if Joe Biden is be elected president, helping to resolve the trade war.
Yet while we now know how and why the trade talks unraveled so fast thanks to a detailed expose by the WSJ, which reports that "U.S. and Chinese governments both sent signals ahead of their trade talks in Washington last week that a pact was so near they would discuss the logistics of a signing ceremony" but "in a matter of days, the dynamic shifted so markedly that the Chinese deliberated whether to even show up after President Trump ordered a last-minute increase in tariffs on Chinese imports because the U.S. viewed China as reneging on previous commitments", the question remains what this means for markets.
While there have been various "hot takes" on what the latest escalation means for risk assets, with many suggesting that a "no deal" outcome potentially triggering a plunge in the S&P below 2,600 and forcing the Fed to cut rates, one of the better assessments of the future state of capital markets as a function of the ongoing trade war, comes from Bank of America's chief economist Ethan Harris, who in "Once more to the brink" writes that his "long-standing view on the trade war is that the Trump Administration wants deals and will compromise, but only after it extracts the maximum concessions." To Harris, this is a pattern of big demands and moderate concessions that we have seen play out repeatedly. And this case is no different: both the US and China want a deal, "but motivating the inevitable compromise requires some combination of market, economic and political pain."
Specifically, we have seen this framework play out in the past year in two ways:
Read the entire article
Yet while we now know how and why the trade talks unraveled so fast thanks to a detailed expose by the WSJ, which reports that "U.S. and Chinese governments both sent signals ahead of their trade talks in Washington last week that a pact was so near they would discuss the logistics of a signing ceremony" but "in a matter of days, the dynamic shifted so markedly that the Chinese deliberated whether to even show up after President Trump ordered a last-minute increase in tariffs on Chinese imports because the U.S. viewed China as reneging on previous commitments", the question remains what this means for markets.
While there have been various "hot takes" on what the latest escalation means for risk assets, with many suggesting that a "no deal" outcome potentially triggering a plunge in the S&P below 2,600 and forcing the Fed to cut rates, one of the better assessments of the future state of capital markets as a function of the ongoing trade war, comes from Bank of America's chief economist Ethan Harris, who in "Once more to the brink" writes that his "long-standing view on the trade war is that the Trump Administration wants deals and will compromise, but only after it extracts the maximum concessions." To Harris, this is a pattern of big demands and moderate concessions that we have seen play out repeatedly. And this case is no different: both the US and China want a deal, "but motivating the inevitable compromise requires some combination of market, economic and political pain."
Specifically, we have seen this framework play out in the past year in two ways:
Read the entire article
May 10, 2019
US Hikes China Tariffs After Talks Result In No Progress; China Vows To Retaliate
After much theatrics and 11th hour negotiations, the US more than doubled tariffs to 25% on more than $200 billion in good imports from China just after midnight on Friday in what has been dubbed the "most dramatic step yet" in Donald Trump’s crusade to extract trade concessions from Beijing, deepening a nearly two-year old conflict that has roiled global markets and impacted the world economy.
While the White House said in a statement that talks are set to resume Friday, setting the stage for a tense final day of negotiations between Liu He, China's vice premier and Robert Lighthizer, the US trade rep, Bloomberg reports that according to "close observers" there is little hope for any meaningful breakthroughs, especially since Liu does not have the authority to make any meaningful commitments, while an alleged phone call between Trump and president Xi yielded no positive results. It was also unclear, Bloomberg adds, whether China had resolved the internal debates that had led to last week’s rescinding of prior commitments to enshrine reforms agreed in Chinese law.
News that the US would hike tariffs, and set off a sequence of events that would most likely result in further escalation pushed US equity futures, treasury yields and the USDJPY lower around midnight.
In response to the tariff hike, China immediately said in a statement it "deeply regrets the latest tariff hike" and that it will be forced to take countermeasures against the US actions, but didn’t specify how, even as it said that it sill hopes the two sides can resolve issues via ongoing consultations.
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While the White House said in a statement that talks are set to resume Friday, setting the stage for a tense final day of negotiations between Liu He, China's vice premier and Robert Lighthizer, the US trade rep, Bloomberg reports that according to "close observers" there is little hope for any meaningful breakthroughs, especially since Liu does not have the authority to make any meaningful commitments, while an alleged phone call between Trump and president Xi yielded no positive results. It was also unclear, Bloomberg adds, whether China had resolved the internal debates that had led to last week’s rescinding of prior commitments to enshrine reforms agreed in Chinese law.
News that the US would hike tariffs, and set off a sequence of events that would most likely result in further escalation pushed US equity futures, treasury yields and the USDJPY lower around midnight.
In response to the tariff hike, China immediately said in a statement it "deeply regrets the latest tariff hike" and that it will be forced to take countermeasures against the US actions, but didn’t specify how, even as it said that it sill hopes the two sides can resolve issues via ongoing consultations.
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May 9, 2019
Amazon Hit By "Serious" Hack, Resulting In "Extensive" Fraud, Cash Stolen From Merchants
We recently documented how Amazon has come under fire from its merchants for allegedly trying to undercut them on pricing and products. Now, the e-commerce giant is under scrutiny for a different reason: security. Amazon is now saying it was hit by an "extensive" fraud last year, revealing in court documents that hackers were able to transfer funds from merchant accounts over the course of six months, according to Bloomberg.
The "serious" online attack included hackers breaking into about 100 seller accounts and moving cash from loans or sales into their own bank accounts. The hack took place between May 2018 and October 2018, according to Amazon’s lawyers.
Amazon said it was still looking into the compromised accounts and that it believed hackers changed the details on its Seller Central platform to bank accounts in their name. Amazon believes that the accounts were compromised by phishing techniques that looked for login information. Amazon has reportedly concluded its investigation of the incident.
Lawyers for the online retailer asked a judge in London to approve searches of account statements at Barclays and Prepay, two banks that "have become innocently mixed up in the wrongdoing." Amazon says that it needed the documents “to investigate the fraud, identify and pursue the wrongdoers, locate the whereabouts of misappropriated funds, bring the fraud to an end and deter future wrongdoing."
The filing doesn’t denote how the suspected wrongdoers were able to add new bank account information to merchant accounts. Amazon has issued more than $1 billion in loans to merchants and one of the units named in the filing was Amazon Capital Services U.K., a division of the company responsible for making these loans.
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The "serious" online attack included hackers breaking into about 100 seller accounts and moving cash from loans or sales into their own bank accounts. The hack took place between May 2018 and October 2018, according to Amazon’s lawyers.
Amazon said it was still looking into the compromised accounts and that it believed hackers changed the details on its Seller Central platform to bank accounts in their name. Amazon believes that the accounts were compromised by phishing techniques that looked for login information. Amazon has reportedly concluded its investigation of the incident.
Lawyers for the online retailer asked a judge in London to approve searches of account statements at Barclays and Prepay, two banks that "have become innocently mixed up in the wrongdoing." Amazon says that it needed the documents “to investigate the fraud, identify and pursue the wrongdoers, locate the whereabouts of misappropriated funds, bring the fraud to an end and deter future wrongdoing."
The filing doesn’t denote how the suspected wrongdoers were able to add new bank account information to merchant accounts. Amazon has issued more than $1 billion in loans to merchants and one of the units named in the filing was Amazon Capital Services U.K., a division of the company responsible for making these loans.
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May 8, 2019
Behind The Recent Crypto Surge? Chinese Banks Are Quietly Running Out Of Dollars
Cryptocurrencies have had a good run in recent weeks, as a sudden renewed demand has lifted all boats and taken Bitcoin back near $6000 this morning...
The catalyst has remained unclear - anticipation of an ETF? Growing institutional interest? Short-squeeze? Manipulation? Or, just plain old safe-haven flows as various nations around the world collapse into totalitarianism?
We may have found one, rather large, answer - from China, where, as SCMP reports, authorities have quietly begun 'soft' capital controls on foreign currency withdrawals
Chinese banks have increased their scrutiny of foreign-currency withdrawals and quietly reduced the amount of US dollars people are allowed to withdraw, tightening the country’s capital controls as the nearly year-long US-China trade war bites.
The issue was thrust into the spotlight on Friday when a viral video clip showed a bank cashier unable to answer a furious customer demanding to know why she was not allowed to withdraw US$200 from her dollar-denominated account, even though she was within her quota.
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The catalyst has remained unclear - anticipation of an ETF? Growing institutional interest? Short-squeeze? Manipulation? Or, just plain old safe-haven flows as various nations around the world collapse into totalitarianism?
We may have found one, rather large, answer - from China, where, as SCMP reports, authorities have quietly begun 'soft' capital controls on foreign currency withdrawals
Chinese banks have increased their scrutiny of foreign-currency withdrawals and quietly reduced the amount of US dollars people are allowed to withdraw, tightening the country’s capital controls as the nearly year-long US-China trade war bites.
The issue was thrust into the spotlight on Friday when a viral video clip showed a bank cashier unable to answer a furious customer demanding to know why she was not allowed to withdraw US$200 from her dollar-denominated account, even though she was within her quota.
Read the entire article
May 7, 2019
The Dow Made A Miraculous 400 Point Recovery, But Now Renewed Trade Fears Are Sending Markets Plunging Once Again
If your head is spinning from the wild fluctuations that have shaken global financial markets, you are definitely not alone. On Sunday, President Trump angrily threatened to hit China with enormous new tariffs, and it looked like hopes for a trade deal between the United States and China had collapsed. Overnight, Chinese stocks had their worst session in three years, and many expected U.S. stocks to experience a similar plunge. But then on Monday we learned that the Chinese had decided to move forward with trade talks this week anyway, and global financial markets started rebounding in a major way. In fact, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded more than 400 points…
The Dow closed just 66 points lower on Monday, recovering from a plunge of as much as 471 points. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also erased their sharp losses, ending just 0.5% lower.
The comeback signals investors don’t believe President Donald Trump’s surprise threat to impose higher tariffs on China will spark a painful deepening of the trade war. Optimists are even hoping an historic trade deal will still be reached.
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The Dow closed just 66 points lower on Monday, recovering from a plunge of as much as 471 points. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also erased their sharp losses, ending just 0.5% lower.
The comeback signals investors don’t believe President Donald Trump’s surprise threat to impose higher tariffs on China will spark a painful deepening of the trade war. Optimists are even hoping an historic trade deal will still be reached.
Read the entire article
May 6, 2019
Trade Deal Dead: Trump Says 10% China Tariff Rising To 25% On Friday, Another $325BN In Goods To Be Taxed
So much for months and months of constant leaks, headlines, tweets, and press reports that US-China trade talks are going great, and are imminent amid an ocean of "optimism" (meant solely to sucker in amateurs into the most obvious bull headfake since 1987).
Just after noon on Sunday, President Trump tweeted that 10% tariffs paid by China on $200 billion in goods will rise to 25% on Friday, and that - contrary to what he himself and his chief economist, Larry Kudlow has said for months, talks on a trade deal have been going too slowly.
And, just to underscore his point, Trump also threatened to impose 25% tariffs on an additional $325 billion of Chinese goods “shortly.”
With the tariff rate on numerous goods originally set at 10% and set to more than double in 2019, Trump postponed that decision after China and the US agreed to sit down for trade talks; following Trump's tweet it is now confirmed that trade talks have hit an impasse and that escalation will be needed to break the stalemate.
It was as recently as Friday that Vice President Mike Pence told CNBC that Trump remained hopeful that he could strike a deal with China (at the same time as he was urging for a rate cut from the Fed).
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Just after noon on Sunday, President Trump tweeted that 10% tariffs paid by China on $200 billion in goods will rise to 25% on Friday, and that - contrary to what he himself and his chief economist, Larry Kudlow has said for months, talks on a trade deal have been going too slowly.
And, just to underscore his point, Trump also threatened to impose 25% tariffs on an additional $325 billion of Chinese goods “shortly.”
With the tariff rate on numerous goods originally set at 10% and set to more than double in 2019, Trump postponed that decision after China and the US agreed to sit down for trade talks; following Trump's tweet it is now confirmed that trade talks have hit an impasse and that escalation will be needed to break the stalemate.
It was as recently as Friday that Vice President Mike Pence told CNBC that Trump remained hopeful that he could strike a deal with China (at the same time as he was urging for a rate cut from the Fed).
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May 3, 2019
China And Russia: Whoopin' Uncle Sam At His Own Game
Country A builds factories and plants, it employees zillions of people who manufacture things, it launches massive infrastructure programs, paves millions of miles of highways and roads, opens new sea lanes, vastly expands its high-speed rail network, and pumps profits back into productive operations that turbo-charge its economy and bolster its stature among the nations of the world.
Country B has the finest military in the world, it has more than 800 bases scattered across the planet, and spends more on weapons systems and war-making than all the other nations combined. Country B has gutted its industrial core, hollowed out its factory base, allowed its vital infrastructure to crumble, outsourced millions of jobs, off-shored thousands of businesses, plunged the center of the country into permanent recession, delivered control of its economy to the Central Bank, and recycled 96 percent of its corporate and financial profits into a stock buyback scam that sucks critical capital out of the economy and into the pockets of corrupt Wall Street plutocrats whose voracious greed is pushing the world towards another catastrophic meltdown.
Which of these two countries is going to lead the world into the future? Which of these two countries offers a path to security and prosperity that doesn’t involve black sites, extraordinary rendition, extrajudicial assassinations, color-coded revolutions, waterboarding, strategic disinformation, false-flag provocations, regime change and perennial war?
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Country B has the finest military in the world, it has more than 800 bases scattered across the planet, and spends more on weapons systems and war-making than all the other nations combined. Country B has gutted its industrial core, hollowed out its factory base, allowed its vital infrastructure to crumble, outsourced millions of jobs, off-shored thousands of businesses, plunged the center of the country into permanent recession, delivered control of its economy to the Central Bank, and recycled 96 percent of its corporate and financial profits into a stock buyback scam that sucks critical capital out of the economy and into the pockets of corrupt Wall Street plutocrats whose voracious greed is pushing the world towards another catastrophic meltdown.
Which of these two countries is going to lead the world into the future? Which of these two countries offers a path to security and prosperity that doesn’t involve black sites, extraordinary rendition, extrajudicial assassinations, color-coded revolutions, waterboarding, strategic disinformation, false-flag provocations, regime change and perennial war?
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May 2, 2019
Americans Can't Afford To Buy A Home In 70% Of The Country
Even at a time of low interest rates and rising wages, Americans simply can’t afford a home in more than 70% of the country, according to CBS. Out of 473 US counties that were analyzed in a recent report, 335 listed median home prices were more than what average wage earners could afford. According to the report from ATTOM Data Solutions, these counties included Los Angeles and San Diego in California, as well as places like Maricopa County in Arizona.
New York City claimed the largest share of a person's income to purchase a home. While on average, earners nationwide needed to spend only about 33% of their income on a home, residents in Brooklyn and Manhattan need to shell out more than 115% of their income. In San Francisco this number is about 103%. Homes were found to be affordable in places like Chicago, Houston and Philadelphia.
This news is stunning because homes are considerably more affordable today than they were a year ago. Although prices are rising in many areas, they are also falling in places like Manhattan. Unaffordability in the market has been the result of slower home building and owners staying in their homes longer. Both have reduced the supply of homes in the market.
And the market may continue to create better conditions for buyers. Affordability could improve because of the fact that homes are out of reach for so many seekers, according to Todd Teta, chief product officer at ATTOM Data Solutions. Today’s market is also more affordable than it was a decade ago, before the crisis. Home prices were about the same prior to the crisis, even though income adjusted for inflation was lower.
"What kept the market going was looser lending standards, so that was compensating for affordability issues," Teta said. Since then, standards have toughened (for now, at least).
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New York City claimed the largest share of a person's income to purchase a home. While on average, earners nationwide needed to spend only about 33% of their income on a home, residents in Brooklyn and Manhattan need to shell out more than 115% of their income. In San Francisco this number is about 103%. Homes were found to be affordable in places like Chicago, Houston and Philadelphia.
This news is stunning because homes are considerably more affordable today than they were a year ago. Although prices are rising in many areas, they are also falling in places like Manhattan. Unaffordability in the market has been the result of slower home building and owners staying in their homes longer. Both have reduced the supply of homes in the market.
And the market may continue to create better conditions for buyers. Affordability could improve because of the fact that homes are out of reach for so many seekers, according to Todd Teta, chief product officer at ATTOM Data Solutions. Today’s market is also more affordable than it was a decade ago, before the crisis. Home prices were about the same prior to the crisis, even though income adjusted for inflation was lower.
"What kept the market going was looser lending standards, so that was compensating for affordability issues," Teta said. Since then, standards have toughened (for now, at least).
Read the entire article
May 1, 2019
Chinese Drugmaker Discloses $4.4 Billion Accounting Fraud
It looks like China's unstoppable default tsunami is about to claim its latest corporate victim...and thanks to lax oversight that allowed the company to get away with what appears to be a staggering accounting fraud, thousands of unsuspecting investors might be left holding the bag.
According to Bloomberg, Kangmei Pharmaceutical Co., one of China’s largest listed drugmakers, revealed on Tuesday that it had overstated its cash holdings by $4.4 billion. Unsurprisingly, the revelation, which immediately exposed the company to be teetering on the brink of insolvency, sent its shares and bonds tumbling. Its shares, which are a constituent of MSCI's global index, plunged by the 10% daily limit. Its 2.4 billion yuan ($356 million) notes due in 2022 dropped by as much as 60 yuan (about $9).
It's just the latest example of why investors must be wary of Chinese companies due to lax regulations, even as its equity and bond markets are becoming increasingly internationalized. The company's revelation came four months after it revealed that Chinese authorities had launched an investigation into the company.
One of BBG's sources said the restatement is 'unprecedented' in the history of Chinese security markets.
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According to Bloomberg, Kangmei Pharmaceutical Co., one of China’s largest listed drugmakers, revealed on Tuesday that it had overstated its cash holdings by $4.4 billion. Unsurprisingly, the revelation, which immediately exposed the company to be teetering on the brink of insolvency, sent its shares and bonds tumbling. Its shares, which are a constituent of MSCI's global index, plunged by the 10% daily limit. Its 2.4 billion yuan ($356 million) notes due in 2022 dropped by as much as 60 yuan (about $9).
It's just the latest example of why investors must be wary of Chinese companies due to lax regulations, even as its equity and bond markets are becoming increasingly internationalized. The company's revelation came four months after it revealed that Chinese authorities had launched an investigation into the company.
One of BBG's sources said the restatement is 'unprecedented' in the history of Chinese security markets.
Read the entire article
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