November 13, 2012

Greeks Get Time but Not Money

Yves here. This post by Delusional Economics continues with his cataloguing of the slide of the Eurozone into an economic and political abyss. What is striking is the contrast between his matter of fact tone (which at this point is fully warranted, these self destructive actions have become depressingly routine) and the horror of what is happening, that millions of people are faced with desperation and are prepared to take desperate measures in retaliation.

By Delusional Economics, who is determined to cleanse the daily flow of vested interests propaganda to produce a balanced counterpoint. Cross posted from MacroBusiness.

So here we go again. Greece needs even more money, and once again the EU needs to decide what to do about it.
Eurozone governments will not agree to disburse more money to debt-ravaged Greece on Monday, despite the country approving a tough 2013 budget, because there is not yet a consensus on how to make its debts sustainable into the next decade.

Finance ministers gathered in Brussels should, however, give Athens two more years to make the budget deficit cuts demanded of it, a concession that will require funding of around 32 billion euros, according to a draft document prepared for the meeting.
Yes, I know it’s not a surprise, but it does present immediate problems because the European commission is stalling until the release of the final report , the Bundestag, amongst others, is yet to vote on the next tranche and Greece has a €5 billion bond redemption on Friday.
The latest news from the Eurogroup meeting is:
.. [the] Eurogroup ended with eurozone finance ministers agreeing to extend Greece’s fiscal adjustment period by two years but deciding to put off until next week final decisions on the disbursement of the next Greek bailout tranche and the method to make the country’s debt sustainable.

The ministers are due to meet again on Tuesday, November 20 to wrap up the loose ends regarding the Greek program.

Eurogroup chief Jean-Claude Juncker and European Monetary and Economic Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn praised the Greek government for passing the latest package of fiscal and structural reforms but International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde suggested that some “chapters” remain to be settled.
I’m not sure how you can decide on more time without deciding how exactly it will be funded, but there you have it.

Greece will be allowed to issue more short-term debt to roll over Friday’s paper but there is much to decide. This is yet another “can kick” into the new year. Options available for such a kick are the aforementioned additional time and money, the lowering of the interest rate and/or lengthening of maturity on Greece’s €53bn bi-lateral loan and/or allowing Greece to buy back its own debt with a loan from the ESM. All technically doable but as we’ve seen from Europe many times before ideology and politics tend to create significant roadblocks for any course of action . As usual we just have to wait for the next instalment of the slow moving train wreck.

Also announced yesterday was the Greek bank recapitalisation plan:
Greek banks will use a mixture of common shares and convertible bonds in order to meet international capital adequacy requirements, according to a long-awaited plan to recapitalize the country’s troubled lenders.

The plan, released Monday, says the banks must use common shares to achieve a core Tier 1 ratio of 6%, but can use convertible bonds to top up their capital needs beyond that and in order to reach a minimum 9% level.

The shares, which will be offered in rights issues that are expected to take place early next year, will be offered at a 50% discount to their 50 day average market price. The bonds will carry a 7% annual coupon, that will rise by 50 basis points per year and which will be converted to shares at the end of five years.

Under the terms of the plan, Greece’s bank rescue fund, the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund, will underwrite the coming rights issues and effectively take control of the four big banks, which combined account for three quarters of the banking system’s assets.
Unsurprisingly Greek bankers don’t appear too happy with the plan, as Kathimerini reports:
Senior bank officials told Kathimerini that the terms do not allow for any optimism in terms of attracting private investors to participate in the recap process. Any banks that fail to collect at least 10 percent of the capital required from private investors will come under the full control of the state’s Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF). Therefore current shareholders will definitively lose their assets as they will have no right to pay back the state capital and regain control.
Actually given the state of the banking system and the economy anything short of full nationalisation seems pointless, but finding 10% private investors is likely to be difficult so that maybe the final outcome anyway.

In other news, Angela Merkel has visited Portugal amidst growing political disquiet and the Spanish government appears to have finally conceded to the EC that its estimates are far too optimistic:
Spain’s deficit targets need to take into account Europe’s recession, the country’s economy minister said on Monday.

“We need to take into account that Europe is in recession and in these circumstances we must look not just at nominal targets but at structural ones,” Luis de Guindos said in Brussels.
And like Portugal before it, public backlash on the social fallout from the economic retrenchment is forcing the hand of the government:
Spain’s largest banks said Monday they had agreed to a two-year freeze on evictions of homeowners “in extreme financial need,” amid a public uproar following the suicides of two homeowners facing expulsion.

The decision by the Spanish banking association AEB, for what it called “humanitarian reasons,” came as leaders of the governing Popular Party and the opposition Socialists were to begin working on a bipartisan deal to change Spain’s mortgage laws, some of which date back to the early 1900s.
And on it rolls ….

Source

November 12, 2012

Basel III, Fiscal Cliffs and Economic Mysticism

In this issue of The Institutional Risk Analyst, we examine the strange worlds of Basel III and US fiscal policy. These are but two examples of questions which ought to be simple matters of addition and subtraction, but instead operate in the realm of mysticism - that is to say, economics.

Last week US regulators finally capitulated and announced a delay in the implementation of the Basel III bank capital rules. We hear that a serious reassement is underway. The reasons for the delay are many, but more than practical concerns about how to implement the complex rules is the realization that higher capital rules and other regulatory initiatives will likely put the western economies into a prolonged recession.

For several decades now the US and other industrial nations have been engaged in a collective delusion. The fantasy says that public and private debt can be employed to maintain nominal economic growth without any downside effects such inflation or falling real incomes. The corollary to this democratically agreed escape from reality is that global financial institutions can be managed in a safe and sound manner even as the governments which regulate (and sponsor) them behave more and more recklessly when it comes to fiscal policy.

The conflict between the policies of the G-20 central banks and the Basel III capital rules is striking and, to us at least, an obvious example of how the scientific is instead mystical. Nobody ever asks, for instance, whether implementing Basel III will not work against the purposes of QE3 and the other anti-deflation policies being pursued by the US central bank. Even as the G-20 governments pursue fiscal and monetary policies that can only undermine the soundness of banks and other entities, we try to comfort ourselves by taking tough about bank capital.

Former FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair, for example, often asks us if we don't need to increase US bank capital levels. Our answer is not really. The US banking system is de-leveraging at an alarming rate and causing effective capital levels to rise. With the grey market, non-bank financial sector running off and most banks also making fewer loans than are required to keep pace with credit redemptions, the overall credit picture in the US is deflationary. To paraphrase the great American economist Irving Fisher, without private credit growth you cannot create jobs.

Indeed, the capital levels in the US banking system are already so high in historical terms that the SEC is increasingly at odds with US bank regulators over releasing loan loss provisions as default rates decline. Adding to bank capital levels will only intensify the debate over whether banks are artificially understating earnings by keeping capital levels above the level required to absorb likely losses. But bank earnings are just the first concern.

The more profound question that nobody seems to discuss is whether higher bank capital levels would have made any difference in the dark days of 2008, when the lack of liquidity in the financial markets almost cratered the global banking system. The answer to that question is no. In that timeframe, let us recall, bank capital securities were trading at a fraction of book value. Preferred bank paper, for example, was trading at less than 10% of par value, even though virtually all of these securities were money good. But nobody wanted them at any price.

Moving bank capital up to 7 or 10 or 20 or 50 percent of total assets would have provided no additional buffer to protect depository institutions from what was essentially a liquidity shock, a disaster caused by reckless housing policies in Washington. In such a situation, only 100% capital levels would have sufficed to protect the banking system, but then we'd have no credit growth. Perhaps the real, unspoken truth about Basel III is that higher capital levels are meant to restrain credit creation and nominal growth in America.

When you look at credit loss rates during from 2008 to 2012, the picture is likewise one of capital adequacy, at least in the US. Most US banks had more than ample capital and earnings to absorb even the record loss rates recorded in 2008 and 2009. The fact of the leverage ratio in the US kept banks safe and sound, not the ridiculous Basel II rule. Mega kudos to Chairman Bair and her colleagues at the FDIC, all of whom fought to retain the leverage ratio. The Basel II rules, let us not forget, actually enabled the bad acts of securities fraud that are the root cause of the financial crisis. Just take a look at the Q3 2012 disclosure from JPMorgan Chase and Bank America regarding putback claims on toxic RMBS (See Alison Frankel, Reuters, "Banks should fear ominous new rulings in Fannie/Freddie MBS cases.")

If the Fed and other regulators really wanted to protect the US banking system they would junk the Basel III rule and go back to a modified Basel II regime with the leverage ratio and revised risk-based asset weightings as the central features. But of course none of the economists who populate the Fed, BIS and other agencies can bring themselves to admit that their beloved bank capital construct is really the problem. Most people who work in Washington, never forget, cannot function in the private sector. Defending incomprehensible bank regulatory regimes like Basel II/III is a matter of livelihood for thousands of economists, consultants, lobbyists and bureaucrats.

The other point that needs to be made is the relationship between bank regulatory actions and the global economy. The cover of Barron's this week asks: "Are we headed for a recession?" No, we are already there, thank you. The regulators in the US and abroad have been decreasing leverage and funding sources available to banks for several years, this in order to placate politicians who like to talk tough about bank capital. The lack of credit currently available to business and consumers virtually assures a recession in 2013. But this situation is just part and parcel of the schizophrenia seen in American politics between fiscal policy and bank regulation.

The extent of the self-delusion regarding US fiscal policy extends to some of the most respected Americans. In a comment in the New York Review of Books, former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker says that "At the beginning of this century, we actually had a balanced federal budget," mouthing the canards of former Treasury Secretary Robert "Deficit Hawk" Rubin and his policy stooge Larry Summers. But this is completely wrong.

Presumably former Chairman Volcker understands the difference between raising revenue to eliminate a deficit and merely borrowing money from the Social Security trust fund to finance a deficit. At the start of the 2000s the cash surplus from Social Security was financing the federal budget deficit, a situation that is now reversed. The federal budget deficit actually grew in those years. Today Treasury is compelled to borrow cash in the public debt markets in order to redeem earlier borrowing from the Social Security trust fund in order to pay recipients.

Paul Volcker knows better - or should. But like most partisan Democrats, Chairman Volcker is trying to rationalize an economy that is shrinking and a federal debt load that must inevitably lead to default. Indeed, a default is already in process via inflationary Fed policies, the ultimate tax on working people. Democrats like Paul Volcker support higher taxes for the 1%, but they will never admit that the biggest tax on the 100% is galloping inflation c/o the Fed to accommodate growing federal debt.

Paul Volcker earned his reputation by taming inflation for a little while a few decades ago, but now price increases are killing the US economy -- and all of our dreams for a better future. When will Volcker and his peers among Fed Chairman admit that the central bank is the main culprit in this growing national economic crisis? Is not the Fed the enabler for a national Congress literally out of control? The only sane choice is default and debt restructuring, but you will never hear Volcker or Greenspan or Bernanke ever speak such truth in public. Instead they take the cowardly path of default quietly, via the printing press.

In a presentation to the annual Bank Credit Analyst conference in New York last month, former Office of Management and Budget Director David Stockman noted that in 2002 the Congressional Budget Office projected that US public debt would reach $2.7 trillion by the end of this year. The actual public debt figure for 2012 under President Barack Obama will be close to $12 trillion. Clearly the CBO estimates are not reliable predictions of the behavior of Congress. See the table below:

The CBOs's Budget Forecasts for 2012 - A Decade Gone Wrong



Source: Congressional Budget Office

It is interesting to note that a decade ago, US nominal GDP was projected by CBO to reach $17.5 trillion by 2012, but the actual figure is just $15.5 trillion. Total tax revenues likewise were expected to be $3.5 trillion or 20% of GDP compared to the actual revenue number of about $1 trillion less or about 16% of GDP. The explosion in public debt has not delivered even the nominal economic growth or expansion of tax revenues expected by US policymakers a decade ago. If you deflate the results with the true inflation rate (call inflation 2x the official stats) the results are abysmal and explain why real American income levels are falling. What else do you need to say to refute the neo-Keynesian socialist model which prevails inside the FOMC and White House?

In the face of such poor economic results, is there any wonder that a growing number of Americans and people around the world are losing confidence in the United States? There are a number of reasons for this situation, but the fundamental problem seems to be a complete inability of Americans to deal with reality. Reflecting our colonial, libertine roots, Americans want gratification today and have no interest in sacrifice. Thus our national debate on issues like fiscal policy or job growth or even bank capital has a fantasyland, mystical quality that defies rational explanation.

In his recent contribution to The New York Review of Books, "What Can You Really Know?," the renowned physicist Freeman Dyson discusses the dichotomy between science and philosophy. "At some time toward the end of the nineteenth century, philosophers faded from public life," writes Dyson. "Like the snark in Lewis Carroll's poem, they suddenly and silently vanished. So far as the general public was concerned, philosophers became invisible."

The decline of the importance of philosophical distinctions in public life may be interpreted as a decline in values more generally, making it nearly impossible to have a sane discussion about things like public spending or even bank capital. These public issues should be entirely cut and dry. Yet somehow the rise of the economist as the apologist for partisan political leaders renders even issues involving public spending or measuring bank capital entirely opaque.

The road to salvation for the US, it seems, requires a serious discussion about what parts of the public policy are rational and therefor based in scientific certainty and those parts which are speculative, subjective and therefore in the realm of politics and economics. It may be attractive politically for public exemplars like Paul Volcker to pretend that the federal budget was balanced in 2000, but spouting such nonsense does nothing to advance the public interest.

Likewise, when we pretend that Basel III will make banks safer and sounder, yet pursue policies in housing or public spending that undermine our economic stability and the soundness of the banking system, we are wandering in mystical realms. Economics, never forget, used to be considered a branch of sociology, not a hard science upon which to base rational public policy. Only when Americans become attuned to such distinctions and are able to separate truth from politically motivated fantasy will we truly begin to make progress as a nation.

November 9, 2012

Explosion in Uncovered Employment During the Recovery

Covered employment is the set of working employees that have unemployment benefits.

Self-employed persons such as myself have to pay into state unemployment insurance programs but we are ineligible to receive benefits (we are not covered).

Similarly, people selling trinkets on Ebay as well as those involved in multi-level marketing schemes and calling it their only job are not covered either.

Covered employment was one of the topics that came up in my November 2 interview on Capital Account with Lauren Lyster.

In the interview I noted that covered employment has crashed and reader Tim Wallace frequently sends me charts to prove it. Here are the latest charts from Tim.

Uncovered Employment Since January 2009


I added data points to Tim's chart. Let's do the math.

According to the BLS, the economy added 4,951,000 since January 2009. In the same timeframe, uncovered employment rose by 6,573,468! The difference is 1,622,468.

Got that?

133% of the jobs created since January 2009 are not covered. Employment rose by less than 5 million while uncovered employment rose by over 6.5 million.

BLS Employment History

Let's look at actual levels of employment (covered or not) since 1948. The chart compares October of 2012 with October in prior years, not seasonally adjusted.


Employment is on an upswing but it's all self-employed or other jobs not covered by unemployment insurance benefits.

The labor force itself is flat, but it should be growing.

All of these factors severely distort the reported unemployment rate.

Structural Factors

As I have noted many times before, the falling unemployment rate is via several structural factors that actually show an underlying weak economy.
Realistically, unemployment is much higher than stated.

November 8, 2012

Obama Wins A Second Term: Now What?

I'm certainly glad the election is finally over. While I have loved politics my entire life, this presidential election has gone on for over three years, including the GOP primaries, and I've had my fill of meaningless slogans and counter-slogans, lies and counter-lies. I had to quit watching political news the last few weeks, as I thought I would become physically sick if I watched any more establishment political "experts" give their required opinions and propaganda bites.

The 2012 presidential election has been like a ballgame hyped and built up over three years. We are programed to cheer and act out our sheep-like roles in partisan politics when, like the game, unless we have money bet on the outcome the actual winner will have absolutely no impact on our lives.

This was destined to be a close, statistically tied election, as get out the vote efforts included repetitive harping on its life-changing importance and the evils of the opposition candidates and party. The bottom line is that voting percentages generate credibility for the failed American political system.

"There's not a dime's worth of difference between the Democrat and Republican parties." George Wallace, 1966 Alabama governor and presidential candidate.

Note it now takes 71 cents to equal the purchasing power of a dime in 1966 – if you believe the false inflation statistics out of Washington. Actually, I could buy a soft drink for a dime in 1966 whereas today it is closer to $1.50. Check house prices even with the pullback or college tuition if you want an accurate inflation estimate.

It is reasonable to expect from Obama's second term more of the same as the first four years. The two main US political parties promote nearly identical policies; nothing will change from earlier Bush and Clinton administration policies. Of course, there will be a burst of optimism from Democrats and the usual rallying cries for everybody to come together to meet the challenges of the moment. This is just the usual garbage fed to the voting public after every presidential election.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but both presidents and the representatives we reelect to Congress only represent the powerful banking and economic interests that control the federal government and use it to further their power elite agenda. Real, productive citizens can only look to their government representatives to solve minor bureaucratic issues on lost checks, eligibility for this program or that or to listen only to their complaints and agenda.

In reality, the Senate and House of Representatives by necessity – except in the case of those few with actual philosophical convictions on the right or the left – only represent and govern based on the financial handouts and doors opened by powerful interests. This is the only way they can be reelected.

Why Romney Lost

Romney lost for two main reasons: First, as he correctly noted during the campaign, 47 percent of American families are dependent on government handouts and they voted for what was in their own best interests. Democracy is mob rule and the 47 percent, although with the best of intentions, are still only a mob out to get what they can from others who have earned or produced the wealth in the private sector.

"There are 47 percent who are with [Obama], who are dependent upon government, who believe they are victims, who believe the government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you name it." – Mitt Romney

Still, there is a positive outcome with this depressing statistic. First, many government employees and those on the dole understand the problems of bureaucracy far better than Americans in the private sector because they are caught in the government trap themselves. They often have the courage to even vote against their best interests because they see what it has done to them personally.

Every TSA agent and government employee in non-essential services outside of the armed forces, real police and fire protection and real teachers – not the hundreds of thousands of unionized, make-work employees who use the system – are simply parasites.

Second, the GOP leadership antagonized the 10 percent of the Republican Party electorate who supported Ron Paul for President. Of course, the establishment is still deathly scared of the Ron Paul movement and their harsh treatment and the subsequent blowback on November 6 guarantees any discussion here will be verboten and seldom mentioned for obvious reasons. While some voted for Romney, a few – as the returns show – voted third-party and many like me just sat home on election day disgusted at the entire political charade. Romney lost because he needed a majority of this 10 percent to win yet those controlling his campaign simply threw this voting block away because it threatened powerful central banking, neocon and moneyed interests supporting the GOP.

While Romney would have made a better president than Obama in at least his rhetoric, as he pays lip service to conservative Republican values, in reality his neocon controllers would probably have made him a disaster in foreign policy.

And so over the next four years the people will be provoked and buy more guns they will never have the courage to use to defend themselves against an all-powerful government. The GOP will raise more money using faux social issues and an agenda they never really have any interest in standing up for. Obama will be painted as an evil, Muslim-born in God-knows-where socialist when in actuality he has no more power than Romney would have had to restore the America we loved and respected.

The game will go on until the time is up for our nation. In the meantime, austerity measures will dramatically increase, benefits and promises will be lost by the poor and remaining middle class citizens who really need them and taxes will rise, as will the risk of gold and wealth confiscation. Obama will be blamed, just as Romney would have been blamed had he been elected president, for this is how our regulatory/debt democracy works today in the 21st century. A failed system of central bank control leading a failed economy, a failing currency and a controlled system totally divorced from control or limitation by the citizens of America.

The Solution is to Change the Political Structure

The solution is a return to a limited, decentralized confederation form of government like our first legitimate American government, the Articles of Confederation. One that is responsible to the people and ultimately controlled by the voters with the iron-clad political tools of initiative and referendum like exists in Switzerland today, where voters have the right to reject legislation and laws or enact laws outside the power of controlled legislative, judiciary and executive branches of government. Until we return to the Articles of Confederation, America and our liberties are doomed to extinction by the hidden control of international banking and economic elites.

After the election you can expect appeals from "so-called" conservatives or libertarians wanting your hard-earned money to support this or that cause. They will claim time is running out, the next election is the most important in your lifetime, etc. Time is not running out; it ran out long ago, and voting for either party or most candidates is just an exercise in futility supporting the corrupt system that rules over you. We are serfs and mere subjects to a system and few understand or even recognize the control over us.

If you want to be a free people again educate yourself on the Swiss system of government and work for a return to the government for which our patriot founding fathers risked their lives and property, the Articles of Confederation. Supporting anything less is just deceiving ourselves and screwing our posterity. We may deserve the kind of government we have allowed to take over our country but our posterity deserve better.

The GOP Ron Paul for President campaigns in 2008 and 2012 clearly showed how the controlled, two-party system in the United States will allow no real opposition to its approved candidates in either party. You can bet your worthless vote that new Republican Party rules at the 2012 GOP convention and at the state level in the future will control any viable opposition candidates. The only current outlets for alternative political action are in doomed-to-fail third-party activities that are little more than allowed but controlled political opposition.

To restore the original American Republic, we must change the controlled monopoly political system of government that controls and destroys internally or externally all opposition. New candidates or even attempts at party control accomplish little when the same powerful interests control the political structure. We must work to remove the system in place and restore the limited government of our founding fathers, for they had devised a system that would work well today with our ease of transportation and communication.
Remember, our children and grandchildren deserve a better, more prosperous world and nation than we have left them at this point. It is time we as a generation man up for liberty to redeem ourselves in the tear-filled eyes of future generations. The American people must work peacefully to restore the Articles of Confederation now or else suffer the permanent consequences of the fall of America.

Source

November 7, 2012

Bill Black: Wall Street Urges Obama to Commit the Great Betrayal

Greetings from the Third Annual Kilkenomics Festival in Kilkenny, Ireland. The Irish bubble (as a percentage of GDP) was twice as large as the U.S. bubble. I’m returning to the U.S. to provide economic commentary for al Jazeera’s election night coverage. (Yes, I voted via absentee ballot.)

The Safety Net is the Glory of America and the Unending Wall Street Nightmare

Wall Street’s leading “false flag” group, the Third Way, has responded to the warnings that Robert Kuttner, AFL-CIO President Trumka, and I have made that if President Obama is re-elected our immediate task will be to prevent the Great Betrayal – the adoption of self-destructive austerity programs and the opening wedge of the effort to unravel the safety net (including Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid).

Romney favors the same betrayal, but it would be political suicide for a Republican national leader to lead the attack on the nation’s most popular programs. Huge majorities of Americans oppose cuts in the safety nets. A majority of Republicans oppose such cuts and Democrats overwhelmingly oppose the cuts.
The American people love the safety net because they know it is essential to a humane America. They know that it has transformed the nation. Before Social Security, older Americans were frequently reduced to poverty and dangerously inadequate health care that made the remainder of their lives dangerous and miserable. The safety net does not cover only the elderly and the sick. My father, for example, died when I (the eldest of three children) was 19 and a sophomore at the University of Michigan.

Even though in-state tuition was inexpensive in those days I would have had to drop out of school. Survivors’ benefits allowed me to obtain a superb education and pay back the nation with service and decades of greater taxes because education increased y income. Food stamps and unemployment insurance frequently provide the temporary support that prevent tragedy and allow Americans to obtain useful education and jobs. The safety net has made America a nation we are proud of and a nation that makes it possible for Americans to recover from hard times and tragedy and to on to lead lives that are vastly more productive and enjoyable.

One of the most important reasons that more Americans support the Democratic Party than the Republican Party is that the Democratic Party is viewed as the Party that created and guards the safety net. The elements of the safety net are the crown jewels of Democratic Party policy successes.

Only a Democrat can make it politically safe for Republicans who hate the safety net to unravel it (a process that would occur over a number of years) by legitimizing the claim that the safety net must be cut. Obama may not intend to unravel the safety net. He may have been convinced by Wall Street that it is necessary to begin to unravel the safety net in order to save it. But the result would be to declare open season on the safety net by legitimizing the false Republican memes that the safety net is unsustainable and harms the nation.

The Republican Party’s and Wall Street’s greatest frustration is that they have been unable to unravel or discredit the safety net. The Democratic Party has its Wall Street wing, but the Republican Party has been Wall Street’s principal representative for decades. The Republican Party has been unable to deliver Wall Street’s unholy grail – privatizing Social Security.

Wall Street salivates at the prospect of any privatization of social security. This would lead to them being able to charge tens of billions of dollars in fees annually and the banks that administered the privatized program would be systemically dangerous institutions (SDIs) because the consequences of allowing bank failures to cause tens of millions of Americans to lose their retirement savings would require either that all such deposits be federally insured or that the failing banks be bailed out by the federal government.

Privatization, therefore, is a convenient fiction. The banks’ profits will be private; any catastrophic losses will be borne by the public. The SDIs’ already massive political power, often exerted through front groups like Third Way,” will burgeon.

This article is the first of a two piece series. It shows how Third Way lobbies for Wall Street and is used to discredit Democratic polices. The other piece discusses some of the key flaws in Third Way’s studies.
The Wall Street response (via Third Way) to our warning of the Great Betrayal repeats its central assertion that there is no alternative – the safety net must be cut. The Wall Street Wing of the Democratic Party alleges that if Obama wields the knife he will do less damage to the safety net than would Romney. That, of course, does not respond to our point. Once Obama endorses Wall Street’s false claim that the safety net is unsustainable and a grave danger to our economy he legitimizes future Republican assaults on the safety net. Third Way admits that these assaults would wield a chainsaw. Indeed, if Wall Street (via Third Way) is correct that the safety net is destroying our nation’s ability to make productive investments then Republicans should take a chainsaw to the safety net. Third Way, therefore, has implicitly admitted and even supported our analysis.

The Wall Street response to our warnings of the coming Great Betrayal did not attempt to rebut the point I (and many others before me) made about Wall Street’s quest for the riches it would obtain when Social Security privatization began. Third Way cannot rebut the point because it proposes that we should begin to privatize Social Security. The Third Way is faithful to the interests of Wall Street.

The Wall Street response makes three additional points. First, it argues that austerity “could” be implemented after the economy recovered. Except that that is not what would happen and it is not what Third Way has proposed when it put forward Wall Street’s views on the need for immediate austerity.

Indeed, it has been demanding immediate austerity for years – even when the U.S. was struggling to eke out a recovery from the depths of the recession. In October 2011, in a position paper urging Congress’ “Super Committee” to cut the safety net, Third Way made plain its support for “immediate” austerity, when it bemoaned the prospect that: “Super committee failure would not only be a setback for immediate deficit reduction, but future efforts as well.”

Similarly, in February 2011, Third Way applauded Obama’s proposed budget’s embrace of “austerity” and then pushed for cutting the safety net.

Third Way applauds President’s “tough but necessary” Budget (February 14, 2011)

Budget Blueprint Balances Growth Investments with ‘new era of austerity;’ Third Way says Congress and White House must tackle entitlements next to “win the future, not cede it.’

Third Way Statement on Congressional Passage of Economic Package & Payroll Tax Extension (February 17, 2012)

Today, both parties bucked the trend in Washington to come together behind a deal that’s the right thing for the American economy. This agreement will help prevent a stall in the still fragile recovery. We applaud the conferees for their willingness to work through contentious issues and make appropriate adjustments to reach a principled, bi-partisan compromise. We are glad a deal was reached, though we continue to believe that the package should have been fully paid for given growing national debt.

Third Way wanted the “package … [to be] fully paid for given growing national debt.” It wanted austerity now even though it new that was a self-destructive policy. Third Way doesn’t simply want austerity now – it wants austerity now through big cuts in the safety net.

STATEMENT: On Standard & Poor’s Downgrading U.S. Credit to AA+ (August 06, 2011)

The markets have spoken and anyone who continues to insist that entitlements or taxes are off the table is condemning the US to second rate economic status and a permanent downgrade.

America’s credit rating is at a crossroads. We can choose to heed this message by finishing the deficit reduction job with a balanced plan that is composed mainly of entitlement cuts, closing tax loopholes and defense cuts, or we can squabble while our global standing continues to sink. The markets have spoken and anyone who continues to insist that entitlements or taxes are off the table is condemning the US to second rate economic status and a permanent downgrade.

The reality is that the ratings cut had no effect on federal interest rates because the financial markets, correctly, view the U.S. as posing no risk of failing to pay its debts. Third Way’s trustees know this because their Wall Street firms engage in billions of dollars of Treasury bond trades on a daily basis and demonstrate their real view that Treasury bonds pose no credit risk.

Third Way’s insistence on austerity now is particularly bizarre because it knows that austerity would be self-destructive.

How’s that austerity thing workin’ for ya?

Since the 2009 depths of financial crisis devastation, President Obama’s stimulus programs have produced modest-but-steady U.S. job growth, while Eurozone adopted austerity-only measures—favored by many U.S. conservatives—have faltered.

The data cited in the Third Way report show that austerity has not “faltered” – it has failed abjectly and forced the Eurozone back into a gratuitous recession. It has helped push Greece and Spain into great depression levels of unemployment.

Second, Third Way implies that I wrote near the “election eve” to try to defeat Obama. I voted for him in this and the prior election. Obama has told us he will try to commit the Great Betrayal as soon as possible. We have to organize now to be able to act immediately to prevent it. Again, the point we made in our warnings is not that Obama wants to unravel the safety net or that the initial concessions to the Republicans will destroy the safety net. The point we made is that by accepting the false Wall Street (via Third Way) and Republican claims about the safety net Obama would be legitimizing continued assaults on the safety net by Republicans and Democrats that would eviscerate it.

Third, Third Way warns that if Obama does not commit the Great Betrayal the Republicans will destroy the economy.

The alternative to a grand bargain is a grand throwdown, one like the debt ceiling debacle of 2011. Only this time, the threat of default would be joined by the double threat of sequestration and tax hikes on the middle class.

Giving in to Republican extortion would only prompt repeated Republican extortion. President Clinton followed the correct strategy against similar attempts at extortion by refusing to give in to it. The extortion strategy blew up in the Republican’s faces. They remember what happened. Third Way’s proposed appeasement strategy would encourage relentless Republican extortion.

THE THIRD WAY: WALL STREET’S TOOL FOR DISCREDITING THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY

Third Way “lauds” criminal immunity for Wall Street Frauds

Pete Peterson, a Republican Wall Street billionaire, has long led an unholy war to eviscerate the safety net. He has pledged a billion dollars to the effort and funded many groups. The “Third Way” was founded and run by Jonathan Cowan, one of his “acolytes.” Third Way’s Board of Trustees is dominated by Wall Street executives. Third Way refuses to disclose its donors.

Third Way represents the Wall Street. The Wall Street wing of the Democratic Party has pushed successfully for the worst domestic failures of the Obama administration, including continuing the Bush administration policy of granting the elite banksters whose frauds drove the crisis de facto immunity from criminal prosecution. Third Way has been conspicuously silent in pushing either administration to prosecute these elite financial frauds. Its Board of Trustees is peppered with senior executives of SDIs that the federal government has charged – but only in civil cases – engaged in fraud. Third Way’s applauded the administration’s grant of immunity from criminal prosecution for the massive foreclosure frauds (hundreds of thousands of frauds) committed by several major banks in a November 9, 2012 press release entitled: “Third Way Lauds Landmark Foreclosure Deal.”

Third Way is also useful to Wall Street’s pursuit of other major priorities, including austerity, unraveling the safety net, and gaining access to tens of billions of dollars in freebie profits from beginning to privatize social security. Here is a sampling of how Wall Street and Republican use Third Way to try to discredit the Democratic Party, candidates, and policies. The repeated motif is that critics of the Democratic Party’s policies cite pro-Wall Street statements by Third Way officials to “prove” that even Democrats admit that the policies endanger the nation. Third Way’s specialty is spreading the faux “moral panic” that the safety net is the great threat to America.

Count the Republican Memes that Keller and the Third Way Endorse

The NYT’s Bill Keller authored a column (“The Entitled Generation”) on July 29, 2012. He excoriated baby boomers based on a study specially given to him in advance by Third Way. Here is how he described this organization run by Wall Street for Wall Street. “This brings me to a soon-to-be released study by the incorrigible pragmatists at Third Way, the centrist Democratic think tank.”

Keller proceeds to accept, with no demonstration of even the feeblest effort at critical analysis, Wall Street’s position as gospel. Remember, he is doing this in 2012, during an epidemic of fraud and failed models when every week brings the disclosure of a new scandal by our most elite financial institutions, including those that direct the Third Way. Keller implies that he has to accept Wall Street’s numbers because they are “arithmetic.” Keller must have amnesia about the entire financial crisis, which demonstrated that Wall Street’s “arithmetic” consisted of maximizing fictional accounting income through the famous four-ingredient fraud “recipe.” That recipe produces massively inflated asset values, fictional income, real bonuses, and catastrophic losses. Each of these results is a “sure thing.” Nobody does arithmetic worse than Wall Street.

Third Way is “centrist” on matters that involve Wall Street’s compensation only if Keller subscribes to the view that “what’s good for Goldman Sachs is good for America.” Keller fails to inform his readers that the Third Way is a creature of Wall Street and that the anti-safety net policies it is lobbying for would be worth hundreds of billions of dollars in increased profits (plus SDI status and even greater political dominance) to the Wall Street firms that dictate Third Way’s policies. Third Way is also a “think tank” only if one views Goldman Sachs’ reports as coming from a “think tank.” Keller then demonstrated why he didn’t believe his readers should learn that Third Way was a creature of Wall Street. He was already afraid that his readers would reject his swallowing the Third Way report’s claims hook, line, and sinker.

Indignant readers are already revving up to tell me that Social Security and Medicare are acred promises, that cutting them would be stone-hearted Republicanism. A.A.R.P., the lobby for people we used to call senior citizens until we realized that meant us, got hammered by the left earlier this year when its C.E.O. dared to convene a meeting of Washington insiders to even discuss the subject. No wonder A.A.R.P. shies away from supporting any entitlement reform.

But the traditional liberal alternatives — raise taxes on the well-to-do, cut military spending — are not nearly enough by themselves. The arithmetic simply doesn’t work, unless we face the fact that entitlements are a bargain we can’t afford to keep, not in full.

The quoted passages are revealing in several areas. Wall Street lobbyists like Third Way fear the public. AARP was not simply hammered by “the left.” It was hammered by its members, who overwhelmingly opposed AARP management’s trial balloon in favor of beginning to unravel the safety net. Bloomberg interpreted the management’s effort as supporting a reduction in the safety net.

As I explained, the “center,” including a majority of Republicans, opposes such a betrayal of the safety net by the U.S. and by the AARP. We can prevent the Great Betrayal.

I will respond in more detail to Keller’s claims about arithmetic in my second piece. Spoiler alert: we do not need to unravel the safety net and doing so would harm our nation. The Third Way’s “arithmetic” is wrong, but Keller simply accepted it on faith. When has Wall Street ever got its models and arithmetic wrong?
Keller’s lead-in to the conclusion of his article returns to the claim that beginning the unraveling of the safety net is the “centrist” position. Note how ultra-right his “center” moves in the process.

Centrists like those at Third Way and the bipartisan authors of the Simpson-Bowles report endorse a menu of incremental cuts and reforms that would bring down costs without hitting the needy or snatching away the security blanket from those nearing retirement.

Erskine Bowles is a member of the Wall Street wing of the Democratic Party. Alan Simpson is a former Republican Senator known for raging at anyone who defends the safety net, including bizarre personal verbal assaults on individual elderly citizens who oppose his proposals. Keller defines Simpson as a “centrist” and “liberals” as non-centrists. Keller needs a cartographer or some introduction to the political science literature on how vastly far to the right the Republican Party has moved over the last decade because his view of the “center” is warped. Eric Laursen has just published a book on this marginalization of the vast majority of Democrats who oppose unraveling Social Security. (“The People’s Pension: The Struggle to Defend Social Security Since Reagan” (AK Press).) Laursen explains how the right has created the bizarre state of being that the administration and most of the media treats groups that defend the safety net as extremists – within the Democratic Party – and defines people and groups like Peterson, Third Way, and Simpson as “centrists” despite the fact that the overwhelming majority of Americans support the safety nets. The supposed non-centrists include the Democratic base – the labor unions, nationally famous leaders like Warren, and other groups that are the most likely to vote for Democratic Party candidates.

Obama appointed Bowles and Simpson as co-chairs of the commission to recommend budget cuts knowing that both were Pete Peterson allies eager to impose austerity, begin to unravel the safety net, and begin to privatize Social Security. The Bowles/Simpson (BS) co-chairs pushed each of these three policies (though even they warned that what former President Clinton terms “austerity now” must be avoided because it would throw the nation back into recession). The BS co-chairs, however, were unable to convince the required number of members of their commission to support their recommendations. The co-chairs, therefore, simply went ahead and published a report making their recommendations.

Note that Keller admits, but only elliptically, that Wall Street’s (Third Way and BS) proposals are “snatching away the security blanket from those [not yet] nearing retirement.” That is a massive, destructive assault on the safety net and Keller’s readers deserve to be told so directly. Keller’s readers deserve to be told what Third Way and BS want to replace the safety net – privatized savings accounts – the holy grail of Wall Street and its false flag operation known as the Third Way.

But these passages from Keller do not represent the most extreme and destructive attack on the safety net, the American people, and the Democratic Party by Keller and the Third Way. Keller adopts Wall Street’s memes for destroying the safety net. Gutting the safety net becomes not a sad necessity, but the essential act necessary to save the nation. The great threat to our nation becomes the safety net. That means that the people who guard the safety net (like me) endanger the nation.

[The Third Way study] examined two categories of federal spending over the past 50 years, representing two of government’s fundamental missions. One was “investments,” … helping assure that our work force is educated to a high standard…. The other category was “entitlements,” a catchall word for the safety-net programs….

Keller adopts wholesale Third Way’s asserted dichotomy and Third Way’s warning that the increase in safety net payments relative to “investments” harms our nation.

By 2030, when the last of us boomers have surged onto the Social Security rolls, entitlements will consume 61 cents of every federal dollar, starving our already neglected investment and leaving us, in the words of the study, with ‘a less-skilled work force, lower rates of job creation, and an infrastructure unfit for a 21st-century economy.’

While the numbers in the Third Way report are not accurate, note that Keller adopts the Wall Street (and Republican Party) assertion in the Third Way report that safety net expenditures “crowd out” “productive” “investments” in the public and private sectors. The asserted dichotomy between “productive” “investments” and “unproductive” “safety-net” expenditures is false. I explained why the safety net often produces some of the most economically productive results of any private or public sector expenditure, as George Romney’s career showed. Health care expenditures often extend lives and “productive” work lives. More fundamentally, the entire dichotomy and claimed “crowding out effect” is false. Indeed, when we are below full employment (our most common condition), the safety net expenditures increase economic growth. What Keller and Wall Street (via their Third Way mouthpiece) are pushing in these passages is a variant of Romney’s “47 percent” claim that people who receive payments under the safety net are drones who harm the productive class.

Keller ends with this proposal: “We should make a sensible reform of entitlements our generation’s cause.” As a nation, we have immense needs because of how our working class and the poor have been hammered over the last three decades. Keller, and Wall Street (via the Third Way), however, urge us to make “our generation’s cause” the reduction of the safety net that has reduced massively the agony of the suffering of the poor and the working class and was essential to the economic recovery we have experienced. Keller and Wall Street claim that the “centrist” position is that the Democratic Party’s central mission is to lead an assault on the poor and the working class.

As extreme as Keller’s position is, Wall Street’s position (as expressed in the Third Way study) was more extreme. The report claims that: “Entitlements are a critical part of economic security, but without change, investments will all but dry up….”

Here is the Third Way’s summary of the report.

Public investments and entitlements are on a collision course.

Since the 1960s, LBJ’s Great Society and JFK’s New Frontier have competed for federal dollars. And as the cost of entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security has skyrocketed, we’ve spent less and less of our budget educating kids, building roads, and curing disease.

In this report, we argue that the only way for Democrats to save progressive priorities like NASA, highway funding, and clean energy research is to reform entitlements. The lame duck offers Congress a “Now or Never” chance to set the terms of a budget deal that saves money on entitlements, raises revenue, and protects investments. And the heart of the Democratic brand is depending on it.

Third Way has provided another proof of our family rule that it is impossible to compete with unintentional self-parody. Only Wall Street could argue that preserving the Democrats’ “heart” depends on cutting benefits to the poor and working class so that they could burnish their “brand” by spending the money instead on building roads or rockets. Some heart! Wall Street is describing its heartless “brand.”

Third Way Slimes Elizabeth Warren for Criticizing Wall Street Frauds

A second example of how proponents of unraveling the safety net use Third Way as a false flag scheme was illustrated by the Chamber of Commerce. They ran a huge ad campaign in mid-October designed to defeat Elizabeth Warren in her run for the Senate. The Chamber’s goal is to achieve Republican control of the Senate. The title of the ABC article about the Chamber’s ad campaign was: “U.S. Chamber of Commerce Calls Elizabeth Warren ‘Catastrophically Antibusiness’.”

The centerpiece of the ad and the title was the quotation that Warren was “Catastrophically antibusiness.” The person who made the statement that the Chamber quoted was one the Third Way’s founders and a principal spokesmen.

“If you listened only to Elizabeth Warren [at the Democratic Party’s national convention], the message was catastrophically antibusiness,” said Matt Bennett, co-founder of Third Way, a centrist Democratic group. That “further drives a wedge between business and Democrats that may not be fair but is the way business perceives things,’ he said. ‘And making voters into victims is not a winning strategy.

“As Bill Clinton used to say, you can’t love the jobs and hate the job creators,” said Mr. Bennett, who worked in the Clinton administration.”

Warren outraged the Wall Street wing of the Democratic Party by speaking truth to power about Wall Street:

Wall Street C.E.O.’s — the same ones who wrecked our economy and destroyed millions of jobs — still strut around Congress, no shame, demanding favors and acting like we should thank them.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/08/us/politics/democrats-juggle-a-mixed-message-on-economy.html?pagewanted=all

The same article noted that “moderates” were upset that Warren was allowed to speak to the convention during prime time, but the Democratic Party felt supporting her candidacy was one of the vital steps in preventing the Republicans from controlling the Senate.

To the chagrin of moderate Democrats, a prime-time speaker was Elizabeth Warren, the liberal scourge of Wall Street who is running in Massachusetts to unseat Senator Scott P. Brown, a Republican. Her scheduling slot reflected Democrats’ zeal to capture that seat and protect their slim Senate majority.
The Chamber ad attacking Warren identified Bennett, the Third Way’s co-founder, as the author of the quotation and described him as working for an organization of moderate Democrats. Note that Bennett also adopted the false Republican meme that only CEOs are “job creators.” The reality is that each of us, by creating private sector demand and by creating wealth through our labor we create jobs.

The Third Way willingness to attack one of the most praised public servants in the nation, in a Senate race vital to the Democratic Party, because she had the temerity to criticize the Wall Street CEOs who caused the crisis (often through frauds that made them wealthy), were bailed out by the government, and responded with insolence. Third Way not only applauds the administration’s refusal to prosecute the Wall Street frauds who drove the crisis – the Wall Street Wing demands that the Democratic Party not criticize the SDIs’ CEOs and claims that calling for the senior executives to be held accountable for their crimes and misconduct is impermissible because it will enrage business people and because any discussion of elite frauds would have to address the fact that they victimized the public. Wall Street demands that we do nothing that would cause the public to consider their victimization by elite frauds. The Third Way claims that discussing elite frauds and abuses runs afoul of the Third Way’s mantra that “making voters into victims is not a winning strategy.”

The reality is that the elite frauds victimized voters. Warren didn’t make the voters into fraud victims – the banksters did. She did not attack business – she attacked a rigged system that produces what economics and white-collar criminology calls a “Gresham’s dynamic” in which bad ethics drives good ethics out of the marketplace. George Akerlof was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics in 2001. His most famous article to date discusses markets for “lemons” (bad quality cars). Akerlof asked what happens if fraudulent sellers of goods are able to deceive their customers and secure a competitive advantage over honest businesses. He found that honest businesses and the customer were both victims of fraudulent CEOs.

[D]ishonest dealings tend to drive honest dealings out of the market. The cost of dishonesty, therefore, lies not only in the amount by which the purchaser is cheated; the cost also must include the loss incurred from driving legitimate business out of existence. George Akerlof (1970).

It is a pro (honest) business policy to enforce the law vigorously against such frauds. Warren did not advise voters to feel like helpless “victims.” She urged them to insist that government hold accountable the fraudulent CEOs who pose a lethal risk to honest firms. Third Way insists that we not reveal, prosecute, or even criticize the banksters’ frauds. The Third Way’s “don’t ask; don’t tell” position on elite financial fraud is beyond the pale on many dimensions, but it is revealing that its board of trustees, drawn overwhelmingly from big finance, does not believe that it would be in their firms’ interests to prosecute the elite financial frauds and break the Gresham’s dynamic that dooms honest firms. That position only makes sense if their firms believe that they would be prosecuted if the Obama and Bush administrations had enforced the criminal laws. The Third Way and the Chamber of Commerce are the entities pushing a “catastrophically antibusiness” campaign against (honest) businesses by championing the view that it is illegitimate to even criticize the banksters much less prosecute them. Their view is ultra-extreme, not “moderate” or “centrist.”

Fiat Justitia, Ruat Caelum

In case it is not obvious, the issue is not whether covering up the elite financial frauds is “a winning [political] strategy.” I don’t care whether it will cost the Democratic Party the loss of all financial donations from finance if we investigate and prosecute their frauds. I don’t care whether losing those donations from finance cause Obama to lose. The fact that the Third Way’s co-founder makes clear that he would prefer to cover up the elite banksters’ frauds that drove the crisis because he believes it is “a winning [electoral] strategy” tells me that the Financial Wing of the Democratic Party lacks the integrity necessary to run a financial institution or guide governmental policy.

Samuelson: Third Way “liberals” prove we need austerity and safety net cuts

The third way in which the Third Way was used by proponents of austerity and unraveling the safety net was the subject of one of my prior columns.

Samuelson, however, makes bizarre odes to Irish austerity, emphasizing the necessity of “persuading ordinary citizens to tolerate austerity (higher unemployment, lower social benefits, [and] heavier taxes) without resorting to paralyzing street protests or ineffectual parliamentary coalitions.” I love the fact that Samuelson not only wants to increase unemployment and taxes while cutting benefits – he demands that Americans become masochists and embrace the pain of hurling America into a gratuitous second recession. Why should we mimic Europe’s failed austerity strategy? Because Third Way has proven that even liberal Democrats know there is no alternative to self-mutilation of our economy.

Can’t we just tax the rich even more? Unfortunately, this won’t work either. Third Way — a liberal group, mind you — estimated the effects of top income tax rates of 49.6 percent and 41 percent and a top capital gains rate of 38.8 percent. The budget still doesn’t balance….

Samuelson misses the more basic point. Raising (net) taxes during a fragile recovery from the Great Recession will further cut already inadequate private sector demand and poses a grave risk of forcing the economy back into a self-inflicted recession. Calling a lobbying force controlled by Wall Street executives that is pushing to begin privatizing Social Security “liberal” is farcical.

Conclusion

The fact that Wall Street (via Third Way) is worried by our opposition to Obama engaging in the Great Betrayal by adopting austerity and cutting the safety net is good news. Wall Street knows that the public wants the President to protect the safety net from Wall Street’s depredations. If Obama is re-elected we will soon face the struggle to save the security net. If Romney is elected the effort may be delayed, but Republicans will recruit Congressional Democrats to co-lead a bipartisan effort against the safety net. In either case, we need to organize now to save the safety net.

 Source

November 6, 2012

The Solution to Unemployment Is Less Monetary Stimulation Not More

Young jobless 'scar' starts to heal as more begin work ... "Not only is youth unemployment costing us billions now, but the damage done to the future employment and earnings prospects of those affected will cost us billions for years to come, every year, long after the economy as a whole has recovered." Being cast out of the jobs market at such a young age can cause permanent damage. When employers start hiring again, there are more people competing for each job. – UK Telegraph

Dominant Social Theme: It took some time but the system is working and employing young people once again.

Free-Market Analysis: This is a hopeful article but one that leaves significant questions in its wake. One could ask, for instance, how is it that modern economies can from time to time generate such vast unemployment? And why, most recently, has this unemployment been so difficult to cure?
The Telegraph article above is hopeful about unemployment, stating that, "Total unemployment has been remarkably low during the most recent recession, peaking at 8.4pc compared with 10.7pc in the 1990s, but the hard times have fallen disproportionately on the young."

This has been the case in Spain, too, where 50 percent of youth are supposedly out of work along with 25 percent of the total population. This is a disaster by any measure as government unemployment figures almost inevitably understate the reality of the working environment.
US figures have been portraying a picture of less than 10 percent unemployment when the figure is probably 20 percent or even 30 percent. UK figures are probably similarly understating employment. Here's some more from the article:

The statistics are compelling. At the peak of the 1990s slump, 17.8pc of 18-24 year-olds were unemployed, and 20pc of 16-17 year-olds. This time, the comparable figures were 20pc and 39pc. Part of the rise can be attributed to the fact that more young people are now in further education, thereby reducing the size of the pool of workers against which those unemployed are measured. But the underlying story remains one of a disenfranchised generation.

Given the high cost of going to university, the options are hardly attractive. As James Carrick, an economist at Legal & General Investment Management, put it: "You've got a choice of no work or debt."

The latest recession has been particularly hard on the young due to a strange dynamic in the UK labour market. Rather that cut jobs, companies cut hours and froze pay. John Philpott, an independent labour market economist at The Jobs Economist, speculated that redundancy costs might have been the incentive. But, for whatever reason, it led to an effective recruitment freeze.

For the legions of young people leaving education, it meant there was no work to go to. In boom times, youth unemployment tends to be double general unemployment – it was running at about 10pc before the crisis against the wider economy's 5pc, Mr Philpott said – but since the recession the disparity has widened. While total unemployment peaked at 8.4pc, for those aged 16 to 24 it hit 22.3pc – reaching a record 1.04m.

The reality of unemployment is fairly simple. It has to do with overt money creation that foments first tremendous booms and then horrible busts.

But what is less appreciated, even among those who comprehend the distortive effects of monopoly central banking, is how deep the distortion runs. Over-printing of money creates great and apparently lasting economic changes.

The constant over-printing of money creates great industrial changes, undermining agrarian culture and swelling urban environments. From the point of view of a power elite, this trend is a positive one, as people in cities are less self-sufficient and easier to sway.

Urban living is modern living. The actuality of people's existence in an urban environment is one divorced from the underlying reality of existence and even of community. People involved in this sort of culture don't realize the risk they are running until the consequences make themselves uneasily apparent.

Modern economists do not recognize this, however, even as they do not recognize, or admit, that central bank money printing is a kind of price-fixing and therefore unsustainable. Rather than analyze the reality of overabundant money flows, they have spent time and energy giving this process a name.

Economists call the loss of skills that accompanies such a prolonged slump "hysteresis" – or permanently higher unemployment as the lost generation forever fails to make it onto the jobs ladder. NIESR and ACEVO estimated in their report in February that such "hysteresis" could cost the Government £2.9bn a year from 2013 in welfare and associated costs, and rob the economy of £6.3bn in lost output.

The article tells us that the government is "alert to the dangers" of hysteresis and has responded by introducing "the Youth Contract that incentivises employers to hire officially unemployed people aged between 18-24 for at least six months." The government is actually paying companies to hire young workers. "Under the scheme, for each job created companies can claim up to £2,275."

Once more, then, we are led to believe that government is responding to a "problem," even though the roots of the problem may be tracked back to the government itself and to central banking money printing with which it can be affiliated.

In an environment less subject to monetary stimulation there would no doubt be less "unemployment." One wonders how much "unemployment" there was among Native Americans or even the US agrarian South (leaving aside slaveholders, which is another issue entirely).

It is reasonable, though, to ask how societies can create themselves in such dysfunctional ways. A system that at times throws up 25 or even 50 percent unemployment is one that provides little long-term stability and even less security. Within this context, the old, sustainable, agrarian ways may be seen as – if not preferable – at least providing a sane alternative.

Once more, as always, it comes down fundamentally to money and the phenomenal power of its manipulation. If one controls the printing press, one surely has the power to reshape society itself, and often not for the good.

Conclusion: In this case, overt, extensive money printing unbalances the larger employment situation. It turns decentralized societies into centralized and more controllable ones. This benefits elite agendas but not the larger social sustainability.

Source

November 5, 2012

Bank of England Reports Whitewash Central Bank Reality

BoE's 'hierarchical' culture attacked in reviews ... The "centralised and hierarchical" governance structure of the Bank of England is damaging its effectiveness, according to three independent reports. Former investment banker Bill Winters questioned the "robustness" of internal BoE governance in his review. Its "vulnerable" forecasting processes also lack detail and have become "noticeably worse" since the onset of the financial crisis, the reviews said. But the central bank was praised for its "effective" actions at the height of the economic collapse. – UK Telegraph Dominant Social Theme: Investigations into the BOE show it could have done better, but did well enough ... Free-Market Analysis: News comes of the release of no fewer than three separate probes into the Bank of England's performance during the financial crisis that actually started in 2007 and expanded in 2008. The reviews do not apparently cover any of the critical 2007 area. They commenced in May by the Court of the Bank of England, "which manages the affairs of the bank but does not deal in monetary policy." One is always amazed by power elite damage control. Such reports constitute a kind of dominant social theme reinforcing the idea that monopoly central banking has difficulties but is ultimately a utile and appropriate system. But it is not so. Central banks are intrinsically flawed. It is impossible for any group of individuals to pre-set the price, quantity and value of money. When monopoly central bankers attempt to do so, there is always a distortion created in the money supply. Only competition between currencies or gold-and-silver as money can introduce the necessary market discipline. Here's more from the article: They focused on the Bank's handling of emergency lending at the height of the financial crisis, its forecasting record and its ongoing plans for providing support to the banking sector. The reports were completed in October and released today after being discussed at a meeting between BoE officials. Andrew Tyrie, the chairman of the House of Commons' Treasury Select Committee, said the reports were a step forward, but were too limited in scope and had taken too long, reflecting problems with governance at the bank. "What we needed was a full investigation and we needed it earlier," he told Radio 4's Today programme on Friday. Former investment banker Bill Winters, who sat on the Independent Commission on Banking, questioned the "robustness" of internal BoE governance in his review. Calling into question the bank's "centralised and hierarchical" system, he said that less senior BoE staff had "a tendency to filter recommendations in such a way as to maximise the likelihood that senior staff will find the recommendation palatable". He said: "While this makes it easier for the Governor, as ultimate decision-maker, to reach conclusions, it risks reducing the range of views he sees and, as such, might lead to a less effective overall outcome." This, of course, is not the real reason the reports will not make a difference and are not to be taken seriously. They are not intended to change British monetary reality. They are damage control. The idea of a "Court of the Bank of England" is itself an astonishing one. Knowing that central banking is an invasive and damaging institution, the powers-that-be apparently created the court as a kind of fail-safe. One can bet that the same individuals who benefit from monopoly fiat central banking are behind the court, as well. That way they control not only the damaging practice of printing monopoly fiat; they are also able to control the official reports on ramifications. We can see this process at work in the reports themselves. One review found that the BoE "achieved its purpose effectively" by providing enormous sums of money to various large banks to keep them afloat during the crisis. There are statements to the effect that the bank "did the right thing" by keeping secret who received bailout funds and that bank measures were "essential" in stabilizing the larger marketplace. This is the crux of the matter! The power elite that wants to create world government apparently does not want any discussion of fundamental bank privileges. In fact, what the modern system does is create huge flows of fiat money that end up building an entirely artificial system beholden to central bank facilities. When the system collapses, as it must, it is artificially propped up by the same bankers that have done the initial money printing. Those bestowing billions on failing entities don't want their actions made public or subject to scrutiny. The entire process of modern economics is a kind of "mob" operation that begins with a system set up to fail and then continues with regular cover-ups intended to mislead people about how the system actually operates. Conclusion: In fact, central banks should be entirely privatized and their various privileges removed. Let money compete. Then there won't be any necessity for such misleading reviews. Source

November 2, 2012

Why are there no famous financial whistleblowers in this crisis?

This column discusses one of the more subtle issues raised by the Department of Justice’s (DOJ’s) civil fraud action against Bank of America (B of A). The issue was so subtle that of the three articles about the lawsuit that I choose to review the night after the suit was filed, only the NYT article mentioned one of the most important aspects of the suit – the key role that the whistleblower played in making the action possible. The AP and the WSJ articles ignored the fact.

The lawsuit threatens to impose steep fines on the bank. The Justice Department filed the case under the False Claims Act, which could provide for triple the damages suffered by Fannie and Freddie, a penalty that could reach more than $3 billion.

The act also provides an avenue for a Countrywide whistle-blower, Edward J. O’Donnell, to cash in. Under the act, the government can piggyback on accusations he filed in a lawsuit that was kept under seal until now.

Mr. O’Donnell, who lives in Pennsylvania, was an executive vice president for Countrywide before leaving the company in 2009. The government’s case in part hinges on the credibility of his claims.
This is the first major action relating to the frauds that caused the crisis that the government has brought that is based principally on a whistle-blowers’s revelations. This is not simply worth mentioning, it is the most important aspect of the lawsuit. Indeed, as one can see on the face of the complaint, DOJ is “intervening” in a civil action brought by O’Donnell under the False Claims Act because its investigation has confirmed that his claims are meritorious and DOJ wishes to take the lead in the litigation.

Here are some of the essential discussions that the whistle-blower’s disclosures and DOJ’s continuing refusal to investigate (criminally) and prosecute the elite frauds should prompt.
  1. The fraud “epidemic” that the FBI correctly predicted in September 2004 would cause a financial “crisis” if it were not contained was accounting control fraud. Accounting control fraud epidemics also drove the Enron-era frauds and the S&L debacle. In a control fraud the officers who control a seemingly legitimate firm (typically the CEO) use the firm as a “weapon” to defraud. Accounting is financial control frauds’ “weapon of choice.”
  2. Banks will rarely make criminal referrals against their CEOs.
  3. We have fewer than two FBI white-collar agents per industry, so the FBI agents do not patrol a beat. They have to wait until they receive a criminal referral to know what they should investigate.
  4. Whistle-blowers can provide those referrals and when they do so the referrals are of immense value because of their insider perspective and because they can provide the FBI with the ability to investigate the frauds before they fail. This can massively reduce damages and allow far more effective investigative techniques.
  5. There have been a significant number of whistle-blowers during this crisis, but none has become famous. The Bush and the Obama administrations have failed to praise and make famous as an exemplar anyone who fought within the lenders to stop their endemic frauds.
  6. In the DOJ press release announcing the civil suit, U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara (SDNY) did not even mention O’Donnell’s name, did not note that a whistle-blower had made the suit possible, offered no thanks to O’Donnell, and made no call for others to come forward and alert DOJ to other control frauds. The press release consists of statements by three federal officials praising – federal officials.
  7. The DOJ press release not only stressed matters that it learned about primarily through O’Donnell, it emphasized an actions that, according to the DOJ complaint, O’Donnell played a major role in that (a) were competent and would have ended the fraud if Countrywide and B of A’s senior management had been honest, (b) were brave, and (c) provided superb evidence of the senior management’s intent to deceive (which is nearly always the most difficult element for prosecutors to prove). Bharara stated:
Full Spectrum Lending’s senior management was repeatedly warned that eliminating toll gates for quality control and fraud prevention, and expanding the authority of loan processors and compensating them based on volume without regard to quality, would yield disastrous results. For example, in January 2008, a pre-funding quality review showed an overall defect rate of 57%, and a defect rate of nearly 70% for stated income loans. Full Spectrum Lending senior management, however, made no changes to the Hustle, and instead restricted dissemination of the pre-funding review.
Paragraphs 67-71 are the centerpiece of the Complaint. They show that O’Donnell played the key role in trying to prevent the fraud through these studies and warnings. Bharara’s failure in the press conference to praise O’Donnell’s actions and ask others to come forward is revealing.
 

8. The NYT story presented O’Donnell in a dismissive and negative light that would be inappropriate for any straight news story and was bizarre given the strongly positive facts that the reporter would have learned about O’Donnell by reviewing the centerpiece of the Complaint. Here again are the key passages.
 
The act also provides an avenue for a Countrywide whistle-blower, Edward J. O’Donnell, to cash in. Under the [False Claims] act, the government can piggyback on accusations he filed in a lawsuit that was kept under seal until now.
 
Mr. O’Donnell, who lives in Pennsylvania, was an executive vice president for Countrywide before leaving the company in 2009. The government’s case in part hinges on the credibility of his claims.
 
Not a positive word in the story even though the complaint details repeated positive actions by O’Donnell demonstrating competence, courage, and conscientiousness. O’Donnell’s action in blowing the whistle may allow the U.S. to recover $3 billion from B of A’s brazen frauds. The NYT routinely uses the word “earned” to describe executive compensation even when the compensation was received for actions that enriched the officer at the expense of the bank. When discussing an officer, who if the complaint is accurate is vastly more worthy of receiving exceptional compensation, a NYT news article chooses language implying that he was motivated by a desire to “cash in” and a hints that his “credibility” is at issue. It’s a pretty nasty hatchet job and the only apparent basis for it is that O’Donnell is a whistle-blower. (Full disclosure: I’m a serial whistle-blower.)
 
What makes the immediate sliming of O’Donnell so revealing is that it was clearly instinctive. The NYT piece had to be written extremely quickly and the author does not indicate that he tried to interview O’Donnell. The U.S. public probably exhibits less hostility towards whistle-blowers than nearly all nations, but our instinctive reaction is still typically negative. The finance community’s view of whistle-blowers is that Gitmo would be too good for them. Financial reporters swim ceaselessly in this cesspool and hear endless complaints from financial elites (who are incapable of introspection and irony) that whistle-blowers are greedy and the scum of the earth.
 
Financial CEOs led the unholy war against adoption of the whistle-blower provisions of the Dodd-Frank Act. Once the Act became law their principal goal became perverting the SEC rules implementing the provision to deny any financial reward to whistle-blowers unless they alert the firm before they alert the SEC to the senior officers’ fraud. That prior warning would allow fraudulent senior officers to coerce the whistle-blower to try to prevent him from alerting the SEC, allow the officers to cover up the evidence of the fraud, and alert the officers so that they would not make any admissions that might be overheard by the whistle-blower or through electronic surveillance. Both Republican SEC Commissioners voted against the rule because it rejected the industry’s demand for a rule requiring the whistle-blower to first alert the senior officers that he had discovered their frauds. That effort to pervert the Dodd-Frank whistle-blower provision into a rule that would aid elite frauds will succeed if the Governor Romney wins the election.
 
The fact that the business community fought ferociously against doing anything to encourage whistle-blowers is an example of what we call “revealed preferences” in economics. Honest CEOs should encourage whistle-blowers. CEOs often say that they encourage whistle-blowers. Their SEC filings reveal their true beliefs.
 
We have far too few whistle-blowers and because of the worst epidemic of accounting control fraud in history and the death of criminal referrals by the banking regulatory agencies our need for whistle-blowers has never been greater. Indeed, our federal prosecutors are the people who most desperately need to encourage whistle-blowers to come forward who worked at the financial control frauds.
 
Given that desperate need how would a rational administration respond? The President and the Attorney General would hold a press conference with a group of whistle-blowers. He would praise their performance, give a few specifics of how valuable the information they provided was to the nation, urge the tens of thousands of Americans who have information about other frauds to come forward, provide a web site for future whistle-blowers to use, and help arrange a publicity tour in which the select group of whistle-blowers appeared on a series of major television and radio programs where their efforts could be extolled and they could ask others to follow their lead.
 
The DOJ web site would extoll whistle-blowing and give examples of how their actions helped the nation. It would showcase video interviews with whistle-blowers that could be picked up by You Tube.
 
The DOJ would hold rallies outside buildings that had (or do) house the worst frauds featuring the whistle-blowers who had come forward and asking others to follow their lead. The President would host a White House dinner for the whistle-blowers and bestow a medal on some of the most praiseworthy. That is what an administration devoted to holding the elite frauds accountable would do.
 
Instead, Presidents Bush and Obama and their Attorney Generals have ignored the whistle-blowers. They have never urged Americans to come forward with information on the elite frauds who became wealthy by driving the crisis. Bharara, in a PR piece he knew would be read by hundreds of reporters, did not thank O’Donnell and did not call upon Americans to come forward with information about the elite frauds.
 
The federal fraud task force, which has failed to indict any of the elite Wall Street frauds that drove the crisis, does have a web site where citizens could report elite frauds. Here are the instructions and choices provided on the site:

Fraudulent activities should always be reported to your local law enforcement office. The following is additional information on how specific types of fraud complaints or cases of suspected fraud can be submitted to federal agencies.

November 1, 2012

How Fannie Enriches Private Equity Investors at Taxpayer and Homeowner Expense

Corporate welfare queen Fannie Mae has decided to spread their taxpayer provided love, doling out taxpayer subsidized sweetheart deals to a small number of lucky real-estate investors.

Let’s examine one of those deals, Fannie Mae’s SFR 2012-1, which includes three groups of properties in Florida.

Fannie Mae sold 699 Florida properties, appraised at $81.5 million, for $12.3 million cash to San Diego based Pacifica Companies. In exchange, Pacifica must rent the homes, paying Fannie another $78.1 million from rental proceeds, but during that time Pacifica is allowed to keep a 20-percent management fee plus 10-percent of rental proceeds.

If that doesn’t sound like money for nothing, like the song goes, Fannie sweetened it by adding a trigger allowing Pacifica to keep 50-70 percent of rental proceeds, depending upon performance, after Fannie’s been “paid” (read: collected rent) amounting to $49.3 million.

Finally, adding insult and injury – to the American taxpayer and the former homeowner – Pacifica can eventually sell the houses and keep the proceeds or use them to pay off the expected rental income stream faster.

I like to dislike the companies on the receiving end of these deals but, after doing what I’ll admit is minimal research on Pacifica, they seem lucky, not evil. Pacifica is a rags-to-riches Father/sons operation which built a large property business in California; they know how to snatch up a good deal when they see it. Despite operating in California during the bubble-era they survived, and even thrived, the housing bust. These guys are smart investors: a lot smarter than the Fannie executives they were dealing with.

Pacifica buys many types of properties, and has for a long time, including industrial, retail, hospitality, multifamily, single tenant, and sale leaseback. Those latter two categories appear to have mated to spawn a new category, foreclosed leaseback, that is at the heart of this deal.

Let’s dive into the numbers. Pacifica purchased three blocks of properties in different regions of Florida, 699 properties total. Repeating myself, the properties appraised for $81.5 million and were sold to Pacifica for $78.1 million, a 4.2% discount, not so bad for Fannie. Pacifica will be paid 20% of the monthly rents as a management fee, plus 10% of the monthly rents for their “ownership,” while Fannie will be paid the remainder to pay for the properties. Once Pacifica has paid off $49.31 million they will be allowed to keep 50% or 70% of the monthly rental income, plus the management fees, paying the rest to Fannie until the house is paid off. Pacifica’s cost of capital – the interest Fannie charges – appears to be zero, which is very bad for Fannie. Accountants might even argue that the management fee plus rental income constitutes a negative interest rate, paying Pacifica to accept free capital.

Fannie did not disclose the individual property addresses but they’re not that hard to find using public records. Twenty of the properties are in my own Palm Beach County, FL. Three of those properties are in the same development, Waterside Luxury Townhomes, a series of non-descript low-rise buildings. Based on photos from one of the properties, a vacant 598 Green Springs Place, these condos literally redefine the meaning of the luxury. I’ve never considered placing a toilet in the laundry room, inches from the washing machine, thus allowing a person to relieve themselves and clean their clothes simultaneously. I suppose that the rich, living in luxury, are smarter than the rest of us.

This townhome was sold to a couple on Dec. 18, 2006 for $265,900. They financed 100% of their 1,318 sq. ft. palace using two loans, a first for $212,720 and a second for $53,180, both issued by Fannie Mae “Strategic Partner” Countrywide Home Loans. The foreclosure was filed Jan. 2, 2009, almost exactly two years later, a couple weeks after two assignments were inked and filed. Those assignments were executed by well-known robosigner Patricia Arango, signing as “Assistant Secretary” of MERS for Financial Lending Group, Attorney-In-Fact for Countrywide, and attorney in law for the Law Offices of Marshall C. Watson. That busy woman apparently works three jobs.

By Sept. 15, 2010 the $212,720 loan mushroomed into a $263,184.53 Judgment against the couple. Title transferred April 18, 2011 to the Federal National Mortgage Association, Fannie’s more formal name, who purchased the luxury condo for $10.

Fannie quickly flipped the property to legal entity SFR 2012 1 Florida, LLC, which public records indicated is owned by somebody named “Mae, Fannie.” BAC Home Loans Servicing, LLP – that’s Bank of America for those not in the know – filed a quit claim deed writing off the second mortgage on Sept. 22, 2012.

Finally, on Sept. 27, 2012, it was transferred to Pacifica’s SFR 2012 1 Florida, LLC.

The Palm Beach County property appraiser estimates that the is worth $47,000 in 2012, up from $45,000 in 2010 but down from $265,900 in 2006, an 83% decline. Zillow lists the property as a foreclosure for sale, with a listing price of $63,500.

Discounting the purchase by 4.2%, the overall discount, Pacifica paid $60,883. Using the overall terms of the deal they paid $9,124 cash, 15-percent of the discounted value, and essentially financing the remaining $51,708 at zero-interest.

If the property fetches Zillow’s rental estimate of $1,134/mo. Pacifica will be paid $340.20 a month, the $226.80 (20%) management fee, plus their rental stream income of $113.40 (10%), and Fannie will be paid $793.80/mo. After a few years the income to Pacifica will increase to $793.80, $567 from rent and the $226.80 management fee. After a few more years Pacifica will own the condo outright when they can sell it to recoup – assuming the value does not decline – another $65,000 or so.

Let’s look at another alternative Fannie apparently did not consider. If Fannie reduced principal to fair market value then refinanced the house at 4% interest on a five-year mortgage, and BOA wrote off the worthless second, , the borrowers would have a $1,169.45/mo. payment. Fannie would have recovered $70,166.95 in about the same timeframe leaving the borrowers owning their condo outright.

Federal law mandates that the FHFA force the agencies to minimize losses while promoting affordable housing. Somehow enabling a couple to own their own home in five years, for the price of rent – while recovering more overall money for Fannie – doesn’t meet the goal. However, enriching investors on the other side of the country does.

Before we rant and rave that FHFA Director Ed DeMarco’s gotta’ go let’s remember that it’s Evil Overlord Geithner who enabled and even encouraged this type of nonsense, using DeMarco to deflect attention. I have issues with DeMarco’s decisions but the Administration, meaning Geithner, is on the same page as far as preferring to “clear the market,” meaning sell properties with a built in profit to investors, to doing deep principal mods to viable investors (don’t listen to the official noise on this front; there’s been no serious action to move this forward).

There’s a strong argument that the competing goals of HERA, minimizing loss while promoting affordable housing, are impossible. But doing the opposite, increasing losses while discouraging affordable housing, is even harder, yet Fannie has done that. Paraphrasing something a Senatorial candidate I adored once said, there are no blue states, and there are no red states, there are only screwed states, and that includes all of us together.