ECB Preview: The Beginning Of The End Of QE?

With the surprisingly hawkish Fed out of the way, there's only the ECB left to round out this week's relentless barrage of news and events (the BOJ will be a big snooze). So, courtesy of RanSquawk, here is what to expect from Mario Draghi when he takes the microphone in Latvia (an odd place, considering the country's own central banker Ilmars Rimsevics has been barred over corruption charges) tomorrow at 8:30am when he may unveil the end of Europe's QE.

• Unanimous expectations for the ECB to leave its three key rates unchanged
• Will the ECB unveil its blueprint for winding down the PSPP or will they again ‘kick the can down the road’ to July?
• Questions likely to be raised on the Bank’s view surrounding the latest developments in Italian politics
• Macro projections likely to see oil prices curtail 2018 growth expectations whilst lifting inflation prospects

PREVIOUS MEETING: The Bank left their opening statement unchanged in what was a meeting ultimately void of fireworks with Draghi intent on fending off most questions from journalists by stating that the Bank did not discuss FX volatility, their June roadmap, monetary policy ‘per se’ or rising yields. On the economic front, Draghi stated that inflation remain subdued and is yet to show signs of an upward trend, whilst incoming data since the March meeting shows a moderation of growth.

ECB MINUTES: Markets were relatively unreactive to the latest ECB minutes which made little mention of discussions on the future path of monetary policy and instead focused on current economic performance. The account highlighted the views that the more pronounced weakening of demand cannot be ruled out, suggestions that the ECB was close to a sustained adjustment of inflation but most disagreed and that uncertainty over the outlook had increased.

Read the entire article