If the U.S. economy really was “booming”, then corporate earnings would be rising. But that isn’t happening. In fact, we haven’t seen corporate earnings fall like this since the last recession. They fell during the first quarter of this year, and based on the results we have so far, it appears that corporate earnings will be down substantially once again in the second quarter. When corporate earnings drop for two quarters in a row, that is officially considered to be an “earnings recession”, and that normally occurs just before the overall economy plunges into recession territory. As things get tighter for our corporate giants, we should expect a lot more layoffs in the months ahead, and the unemployment rate should rise quite briskly. In other words, it looks like our economic problems are about to accelerate substantially.
This week, some of the largest companies in the entire country reported results for the second quarter, and we witnessed disappointment after disappointment.
And other economic numbers continue to tell us the exact same thing. For example, we just got the worst U.S. manufacturing PMI number in 118 months. That is absolutely terrible news, but Europe’s manufacturing sector is doing even worse.
Manufacturing activity is slowing down all over the globe, and a big reason for that is because global trade is shrinking at the fastest pace that we have seen since the last financial crisis.
Meanwhile, we just learned that existing home sales in the United States have now fallen on a year over year basis for sixteen months in a row.
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