When we last looked at Danske Bank, the Danish lender was at the center of what has been dubbed the world's largest, $220 billion money-laundering scandal that allegedly involved Russians transferring funds offshore in violation of European regulations (it also involved the chronically criminal Deutsche Bank). Then, two months ago, the scandal took a lethal turn when the CEO of the bank's Estonia branch was found dead in a still-unexplained suicide. Now, we learn of yet another bizarre twist in what some have dubbed the biggest dirty money scandal of all time: the Danish lender was offering gold bars to wealthy clients to help them keep their fortunes hidden.
According to Bloomberg, the bank’s Estonian branch - whose CEO committed suicide - which was already wiring billions of client dollars to offshore accounts, told a select group of mostly Russian customers some time around 2012, that they could now also convert their money into gold bars and coins.
So for those asking the benefits of holding money in physical gold instead of fiat (or crypto), here is the answer: aside from offering a hedge against risk, Danske presented gold as a way for clients to achieve “anonymity,” according to the documents. More importantly, the bank said that using gold ensured "portability" of assets, according to an internal presentation dated June 2012.
As one would expect, the gold/money-laundering service did not come cheap: Danske charged a fee of 0.5% on larger orders, while smaller orders had a commission of as much as 4%.
This is the first time we learn that Danske offered such "services" - in the bank's own report on its non-resident unit, the bank listed the services it provided to clients. Aside from payments, these included setting up foreign-exchange lines, as well as bond and securities trading. The bank didn’t list the sale of gold bars.
While it’s not known how much gold Danske managed to sell while the now defunct Estonian unit was still running, an internal email seen by Bloomberg revealed that at least some clients used the service. Local private banking clients were also offered the service.
Furthermore, for gold bars weighing 250 grams or more, Danske clients could obtain the precious metal without a sealed pack or paper certificates. Bloomberg adds that anti-money laundering approval was needed before customers could collect the gold, but such approvals weren’t necessary if the gold was kept in long-term storage, according to the documents.
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Showing posts with label Deutsche Bank. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Deutsche Bank. Show all posts
November 11, 2019
November 5, 2019
The Deutsche Bank Death Watch Has Taken A Very Interesting Turn
The biggest bank in Europe is in the process of imploding, and there are persistent rumors that the final collapse could happen sooner rather than later. Those that follow my work on a regular basis already know that this is a story that I have been following for years. Deutsche Bank is rapidly bleeding cash, they have been laying off thousands of workers, and the vultures have been circling as company executives desperately try to implement a turnaround plan. Unfortunately for Deutsche Bank, it may already be too late. And if Deutsche Bank goes down, it will be even more catastrophic for the global financial system than the collapse of Lehman Brothers was in 2008. Germany is the glue that is holding the EU together, and so if the bank that is right at the heart of Germany’s financial system collapses, the dominoes will likely start falling very rapidly.
There has been a tremendous amount of speculation about Deutsche Bank over the past several days, and so let’s start with what we know.
We know that Deutsche Bank has been losing money at a pace that is absolutely staggering…
Deutsche Bank reported a net loss that missed market expectations on Wednesday as a major restructuring plan continues to weigh on the German lender.
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July 19, 2019
A Bank With 49 Trillion Dollars In Exposure To Derivatives Is Melting Down Right In Front Of Our Eyes
Could it be possible that we are on the verge of the next “Lehman Brothers moment”? Deutsche Bank is the most important bank in all of Europe, it has 49 trillion dollars in exposure to derivatives, and most of the largest “too big to fail banks” in the United States have very deep financial connections to the bank. In other words, the global financial system simply cannot afford for Deutsche Bank to fail, and right now it is literally melting down right in front of our eyes. For years I have been warning that this day would come, and even though it has been hit by scandal after scandal, somehow Deutsche Bank was able to survive until now. But after what we have witnessed in recent days, many now believe that the end is near for Deutsche Bank. On July 7th, they really shook up investors all over the globe when they laid off 18,000 employees and announced that they would be completely exiting their global equities trading business…
It takes a lot to rattle Wall Street.
But Deutsche Bank managed to. The beleaguered German giant announced on July 7 that it is laying off 18,000 employees—roughly one-fifth of its global workforce—and pursuing a vast restructuring plan that most notably includes shutting down its global equities trading business.
Though Deutsche’s Bloody Sunday seemed to come out of the blue, it’s actually the culmination of a years-long—some would say decades-long—descent into unprofitability and scandal for the bank, which in the early 1990s set out to make itself into a universal banking powerhouse to rival the behemoths of Wall Street.
Read the entire article
It takes a lot to rattle Wall Street.
But Deutsche Bank managed to. The beleaguered German giant announced on July 7 that it is laying off 18,000 employees—roughly one-fifth of its global workforce—and pursuing a vast restructuring plan that most notably includes shutting down its global equities trading business.
Though Deutsche’s Bloody Sunday seemed to come out of the blue, it’s actually the culmination of a years-long—some would say decades-long—descent into unprofitability and scandal for the bank, which in the early 1990s set out to make itself into a universal banking powerhouse to rival the behemoths of Wall Street.
Read the entire article
July 8, 2019
"The Deutsche Bank As You Know It Is No More": DB Exits Equities In $8.4 Billion Overhaul, To Fire Thousands
The bank which only a decade ago dominated equity and fixed income and sales trading and investment banking across the globe, and was Europe's banking behemoth, is no more.
On Sunday afternoon, in a widely telegraphed move, Deutsche Bank announced that it was exiting its equity sales and trading operation, resizing its once legendary Fixed Income and Rates operations and reducing risk-weighted assets currently allocated to these business by 40%, slashing as many as 20,000 jobs including many top officials, and creating a €74 billion "bad bank" as part of a reorganization which will cost up to €7.4 billion by the end of 2022 and which will result in another massive Q2 loss of €2.8 billion, as the bank hopes to slash costs by €17 billion in 2022, while ending dividends for 2019 and 2020 even as it hopes to achieve all this without new outside capital.
"Today we have announced the most fundamental transformation of Deutsche Bank in decades. We are tackling what is necessary to unleash our true potential: our business model, costs, capital and the management team. We are building on our strengths. This is a restart for Deutsche Bank – for the long-term benefit of our clients, employees, investors and society", CEO Christian Sewing said in a statement.
“In refocusing the bank around our clients, we are returning to our roots and to what once made us one of the leading banks in the world. We remain committed to our global network and will help companies to grow and provide private and institutional clients with the best solutions and advice for their respective needs – in Germany, Europe and around the globe. We are determined to generate long-term, sustainable returns for shareholders and restore the reputation of Deutsche Bank.”
Read the entire article
On Sunday afternoon, in a widely telegraphed move, Deutsche Bank announced that it was exiting its equity sales and trading operation, resizing its once legendary Fixed Income and Rates operations and reducing risk-weighted assets currently allocated to these business by 40%, slashing as many as 20,000 jobs including many top officials, and creating a €74 billion "bad bank" as part of a reorganization which will cost up to €7.4 billion by the end of 2022 and which will result in another massive Q2 loss of €2.8 billion, as the bank hopes to slash costs by €17 billion in 2022, while ending dividends for 2019 and 2020 even as it hopes to achieve all this without new outside capital.
"Today we have announced the most fundamental transformation of Deutsche Bank in decades. We are tackling what is necessary to unleash our true potential: our business model, costs, capital and the management team. We are building on our strengths. This is a restart for Deutsche Bank – for the long-term benefit of our clients, employees, investors and society", CEO Christian Sewing said in a statement.
“In refocusing the bank around our clients, we are returning to our roots and to what once made us one of the leading banks in the world. We remain committed to our global network and will help companies to grow and provide private and institutional clients with the best solutions and advice for their respective needs – in Germany, Europe and around the globe. We are determined to generate long-term, sustainable returns for shareholders and restore the reputation of Deutsche Bank.”
Read the entire article
October 24, 2018
Deutsche Bank Shares Tumble After Net Income Plunges 65% On Lowest Revenue In 8 Years
There was some good, but mostly bad news in Deutsche Bank's Q3 earnings report.
The good news is that after years of turmoil, the biggest German bank is showing signs of stabilization under new CEO Christian Sewing after a bitter boardroom battle. The bad news is that the bank missed across all key revenue metrics as Sewing scrambles with a looming problem: how to boost revenue after firing thousands of banks in a multi-year long cost-cutting campaign.
The German bank reported net income of €229 million on Wednesday, above the €160 million expected but 65% below the €649 million reported a year ago. Profit before tax also tumbled by nearly half, dropping from €933 million to €506 million.
Investors were closely watching the bank's costs: the new management team, which was appointed last April, promised to deliver further cost-cutting to revamp the balance sheet. In the third quarter of 2018, the bank said that adjusted costs dropped 1% from a year ago to 5.5 billion euros, with the aim for the full year to bring adjusted costs down to €23 billion and €22 billion in 2019. A core part of the new "restructuring" effort have been mass layoffs as the number of workers is set to come down to 93,000 by the end of 2018, and 90,000 one year later.
But while costs and the bottom line beat were a modest positive surprise, the same could not be said for the bank's revenue which disappointed across the board: total revenue of €6.17BN missed expectations of €6.34BN and guided lower, now predicting a slight decline for full year revenue after earlier guiding for a flat result; trading income in the key FICC division tumbled 15% from a year earlier, while equities trading, a sector where Wall Street banks generally posted gains, also dropped at the same pace as these two key businesses have been hardest-hit by executives departures recently.
Read the entire article
The good news is that after years of turmoil, the biggest German bank is showing signs of stabilization under new CEO Christian Sewing after a bitter boardroom battle. The bad news is that the bank missed across all key revenue metrics as Sewing scrambles with a looming problem: how to boost revenue after firing thousands of banks in a multi-year long cost-cutting campaign.
The German bank reported net income of €229 million on Wednesday, above the €160 million expected but 65% below the €649 million reported a year ago. Profit before tax also tumbled by nearly half, dropping from €933 million to €506 million.
Investors were closely watching the bank's costs: the new management team, which was appointed last April, promised to deliver further cost-cutting to revamp the balance sheet. In the third quarter of 2018, the bank said that adjusted costs dropped 1% from a year ago to 5.5 billion euros, with the aim for the full year to bring adjusted costs down to €23 billion and €22 billion in 2019. A core part of the new "restructuring" effort have been mass layoffs as the number of workers is set to come down to 93,000 by the end of 2018, and 90,000 one year later.
But while costs and the bottom line beat were a modest positive surprise, the same could not be said for the bank's revenue which disappointed across the board: total revenue of €6.17BN missed expectations of €6.34BN and guided lower, now predicting a slight decline for full year revenue after earlier guiding for a flat result; trading income in the key FICC division tumbled 15% from a year earlier, while equities trading, a sector where Wall Street banks generally posted gains, also dropped at the same pace as these two key businesses have been hardest-hit by executives departures recently.
Read the entire article
June 22, 2018
Germany Has Made Over 3 Billion Profit From Greece's Crisis Since 2010
Germany has earned around 2.9 billion euros in profit from interest since the first bailout for Greece in 2010.
As KeepTalkingGreece reports, this is the official response of the Federal Government to a request submitted by the Green party in Berlin.
The profit was transmitted to the central Bundesbank and from there to the federal budget.
The revenues came mainly due to purchases of Greek government bonds under the so-called Securities Markets Program (SMP) of the European Central Bank (ECB).
Previous agreements between the government in Athens and the eurozone states foresaw that other states will pay out the profits from this program to Greece if Athens would meet all the austerity and reform requirements. However, according to Berlin’s response, only in 2013 and 2014 such funds have been transferred to the Greek State and the ESM. The money to the euro bailout landed on a segregated account.
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As KeepTalkingGreece reports, this is the official response of the Federal Government to a request submitted by the Green party in Berlin.
The profit was transmitted to the central Bundesbank and from there to the federal budget.
The revenues came mainly due to purchases of Greek government bonds under the so-called Securities Markets Program (SMP) of the European Central Bank (ECB).
Previous agreements between the government in Athens and the eurozone states foresaw that other states will pay out the profits from this program to Greece if Athens would meet all the austerity and reform requirements. However, according to Berlin’s response, only in 2013 and 2014 such funds have been transferred to the Greek State and the ESM. The money to the euro bailout landed on a segregated account.
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June 20, 2018
Deutsche Bank's Troubles Raise Worries About The Future Of The Euro Zone
The euro banking sector is huge: In April 2018, its total balance sheet amounted to 30.9 trillion euro, accounting for 268 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the euro area. Unfortunately, however, many euro banks are in lousy shape. They suffer from low profitability and carry an estimated total bad loan exposure of around 759 billion euro, which accounts for roughly 30 per cent of their equity capital.
Share price developments suggest that investors have lost quite some confidence in the viability of euro banks’ businesses: While US bank stocks are up 24 per cent since the beginning of 2006, the index for euro-area bank stocks is still down by around 70 per cent. Perhaps most notably, ’Germany’s two largest banks, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, have lost 85 and 94 per cent, respectively, of their market capitalization.
With a balance sheet of close to 1.5 trillion euro in March 2018, Deutsche Bank accounted for around 45 per cent of German GDP. In international comparison, this an enormous, downright frightening dimension. It is mostly the result of the bank still having an extensive (though not profitable) footprint in the international investment banking business. The bank has already started reducing its balance sheet, though.
Beware of big banks — this is what we could learn from the latest financial and economic crises 2008/2009. Big banks have the potential to take an entire economy hostage: When they get into trouble, they can drag everything down with them, especially the innocent bystanders – taxpayers and, if and when the central banks decide to bail them out, those holding fiat money and fixed income securities denominated in fiat money.
Banking Risks
For this reason, it makes sense to remind ourselves of the fundamental risks of banking – namely liquidity riskand solvency risk –, for if and when these risks materialise, monetary policy-makers can be expected to resort to inflationary actions. In fact, to fend off these risks from materialising, central banks have committed themselves to pursuing chronically inflationary policies.
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Share price developments suggest that investors have lost quite some confidence in the viability of euro banks’ businesses: While US bank stocks are up 24 per cent since the beginning of 2006, the index for euro-area bank stocks is still down by around 70 per cent. Perhaps most notably, ’Germany’s two largest banks, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, have lost 85 and 94 per cent, respectively, of their market capitalization.
With a balance sheet of close to 1.5 trillion euro in March 2018, Deutsche Bank accounted for around 45 per cent of German GDP. In international comparison, this an enormous, downright frightening dimension. It is mostly the result of the bank still having an extensive (though not profitable) footprint in the international investment banking business. The bank has already started reducing its balance sheet, though.
Beware of big banks — this is what we could learn from the latest financial and economic crises 2008/2009. Big banks have the potential to take an entire economy hostage: When they get into trouble, they can drag everything down with them, especially the innocent bystanders – taxpayers and, if and when the central banks decide to bail them out, those holding fiat money and fixed income securities denominated in fiat money.
Banking Risks
For this reason, it makes sense to remind ourselves of the fundamental risks of banking – namely liquidity riskand solvency risk –, for if and when these risks materialise, monetary policy-makers can be expected to resort to inflationary actions. In fact, to fend off these risks from materialising, central banks have committed themselves to pursuing chronically inflationary policies.
Read the entire article
April 26, 2018
Deutsche Bank Reports Disastrous Results As It Retreats From US Investment Banking
One of these quarters Deutsche Bank is finally going to report a quarter that is not a disaster... just not today.
This morning, Germany's biggest bank reported its first earnings under its new CEO, Christian Sewing, which missed across the board: Q1 net revenue missed the lowest analyst estimate, coming at €6.98 billion, down 5% and below the estimate €7.27 billion, also missing the low end of the range (€7.12 billion to €7.33 billion), and unlike other banks where at least the rebound in equity trading helped offset stagnant FICC, that was not the case for DB where sales and trading crashed by 17% to €2.45 billion - compared with a an average 10% increase at the big 5 US banks - resulting in a 74% collapse in pre-tax income for the corporate investment bank.
Summing it up, Deutsche’s pre-tax income more than halved to €432MM from a year prior, missing average analyst expectations by almost a third, and resulting in a paltry €120 million in after tax profits, a 79% plunge Y/Y.
Christian Sewing, DB's new CEO, who unceremoniously replaced John Cryan one month ago, did not mince his words when slamming the abysmal results: "We are on a good track both in the DWS asset management business and in our Private & Commercial Bank, although we need to substantially improve profitability in both. Our Corporate & Investment Bank is also doing well in some areas and held or gained market share in certain areas. However, we are not strong enough in other areas of this business. Therefore we have to act decisively and to adjust our strategy. There is no time to lose as the current returns for our shareholders are not acceptable.”
Read the entire article
This morning, Germany's biggest bank reported its first earnings under its new CEO, Christian Sewing, which missed across the board: Q1 net revenue missed the lowest analyst estimate, coming at €6.98 billion, down 5% and below the estimate €7.27 billion, also missing the low end of the range (€7.12 billion to €7.33 billion), and unlike other banks where at least the rebound in equity trading helped offset stagnant FICC, that was not the case for DB where sales and trading crashed by 17% to €2.45 billion - compared with a an average 10% increase at the big 5 US banks - resulting in a 74% collapse in pre-tax income for the corporate investment bank.
Summing it up, Deutsche’s pre-tax income more than halved to €432MM from a year prior, missing average analyst expectations by almost a third, and resulting in a paltry €120 million in after tax profits, a 79% plunge Y/Y.
Christian Sewing, DB's new CEO, who unceremoniously replaced John Cryan one month ago, did not mince his words when slamming the abysmal results: "We are on a good track both in the DWS asset management business and in our Private & Commercial Bank, although we need to substantially improve profitability in both. Our Corporate & Investment Bank is also doing well in some areas and held or gained market share in certain areas. However, we are not strong enough in other areas of this business. Therefore we have to act decisively and to adjust our strategy. There is no time to lose as the current returns for our shareholders are not acceptable.”
Read the entire article
June 6, 2017
Exposing "The Legend" - How Traders 'Spoofed' The Precious Metals Markets
Following last week's admission by a former Deutsche Bank trader that he and many other traders conspired to manipulate the precious metals markets, court documents expose chat messages that show the level of rigging and how an unknown trader known as "the legend" taught them the "tricks from the... master."
The Deutsche Bank trader, David Liew, pleaded guilty in federal court in Chicago to conspiring to spoof gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures, according to court papers. Bloomberg notes that spoofing involves traders placing orders that they never intend to fill, in an attempt to manipulate the price.
Following an introductory period that included orientation and training, LIEW was eventually assigned to the metals trading desk (which included base metals and precious metals trading) in approximately December 2009. During the Relevant Period, LIEW was employed by Bank A as a metals trader in the Asia-Pacific region, and his primary duties included precious metals market making and futures trading....
Between in or around December 2009 and in or around February 2012 (the "Relevant Period"), in the Northern District of Illinois, Eastem Division, and elsewhere, defendant DAVID LIEW did knowingly and intentionally conspire and agree with other precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) traders to: (a) knowingly execute, and attempt to execute, a scheme and artifice to defraud, and for obtaining money and property by means of materially false and fraudulent pretenses, representations, and promises, and in furtherance of the scheme and artifice to defraud, knowingly transmit, and cause to be transmitted, in interstate and foreign commerce, by means of wire communications, certain signs, signals and sounds, in violation of Title 18, United States Code, Section 1343,which scheme affected a financial institution; and (b) knowingly engage in trading, practice, and conduct, on and subject to the rules of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange ("CME"), that was, was of the character of, and was commonly known to the trade as, spoofing, that is, bidding or offering with the intent to cancel the bid or offer before execution, by causing to be transmitted to the CME precious metals futures contract orders that LIEW and his coconspirators intended to cancel before execution and not as part of any legitimate, good-faith attempt to execute any part of the orders, in violation of Title 7, United States Code, Sections 6c(a)(5)(C) and 13(a)(2); all in violation of Title 18, United States Code, Section 371.
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The Deutsche Bank trader, David Liew, pleaded guilty in federal court in Chicago to conspiring to spoof gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures, according to court papers. Bloomberg notes that spoofing involves traders placing orders that they never intend to fill, in an attempt to manipulate the price.
Following an introductory period that included orientation and training, LIEW was eventually assigned to the metals trading desk (which included base metals and precious metals trading) in approximately December 2009. During the Relevant Period, LIEW was employed by Bank A as a metals trader in the Asia-Pacific region, and his primary duties included precious metals market making and futures trading....
Between in or around December 2009 and in or around February 2012 (the "Relevant Period"), in the Northern District of Illinois, Eastem Division, and elsewhere, defendant DAVID LIEW did knowingly and intentionally conspire and agree with other precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) traders to: (a) knowingly execute, and attempt to execute, a scheme and artifice to defraud, and for obtaining money and property by means of materially false and fraudulent pretenses, representations, and promises, and in furtherance of the scheme and artifice to defraud, knowingly transmit, and cause to be transmitted, in interstate and foreign commerce, by means of wire communications, certain signs, signals and sounds, in violation of Title 18, United States Code, Section 1343,which scheme affected a financial institution; and (b) knowingly engage in trading, practice, and conduct, on and subject to the rules of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange ("CME"), that was, was of the character of, and was commonly known to the trade as, spoofing, that is, bidding or offering with the intent to cancel the bid or offer before execution, by causing to be transmitted to the CME precious metals futures contract orders that LIEW and his coconspirators intended to cancel before execution and not as part of any legitimate, good-faith attempt to execute any part of the orders, in violation of Title 7, United States Code, Sections 6c(a)(5)(C) and 13(a)(2); all in violation of Title 18, United States Code, Section 371.
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November 23, 2016
Forget Deutsche Bank, These 2 American Banks Are Now "The Most Systemically Dangerous In The World"
Back in the summer we wrote about an IMF report that flagged Deutsche Bank as the "most important net contributor to systemic risks" (see "'Deutsche Bank Poses The Greatest Risk To The Global Financial System': IMF"). Those who read our site frequently were likely not terribly surprised by the IMF's conclusion.
Among the G-SIBs, Deutsche Bank appears to be the most important net contributor to systemic risks, followed by HSBC and Credit Suisse. In turn, Commerzbank, while an important player in Germany, does not appear to be a contributor to systemic risks globally. In general, Commerzbank tends to be the recipient of inward spillover from U.S. and European G-SIBs. The relative importance of Deutsche Bank underscores the importance of risk management, intense supervision of G-SIBs and the close monitoring of their cross-border exposures, as well as rapidly completing capacity to implement the new resolution regime.
That said, we suspect the latest ranking of global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) by the Financial Stability Board may be a bit more surprising to our readers, among others, as it features two of America's largest banks right at the very top.
Read the entire article
Among the G-SIBs, Deutsche Bank appears to be the most important net contributor to systemic risks, followed by HSBC and Credit Suisse. In turn, Commerzbank, while an important player in Germany, does not appear to be a contributor to systemic risks globally. In general, Commerzbank tends to be the recipient of inward spillover from U.S. and European G-SIBs. The relative importance of Deutsche Bank underscores the importance of risk management, intense supervision of G-SIBs and the close monitoring of their cross-border exposures, as well as rapidly completing capacity to implement the new resolution regime.
That said, we suspect the latest ranking of global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) by the Financial Stability Board may be a bit more surprising to our readers, among others, as it features two of America's largest banks right at the very top.
Read the entire article
October 26, 2016
Deutsche Bank Considering Alternatives To Paying Cash Bonus
It has been at least a few weeks since Deutsche Bank appeared in the flashing red breaking news sections of newswires, with news that was - mostly - negative. And while the stock has since rebounded materially, wiping out all losses since the DOJ's $14 billion RMBS settlement leak, it appears that not everything is back to normal for the largest German lender. Because in what may be the worst news yet for DB's employees, moments ago Bloomberg reported that the German Bank is exploring "alternatives to paying bonuses in cash" as Chief Executive Officer John Cryan seeks to boost capital buffers.
According to Bloomberg, DB executives have discussed options including giving some bankers shares in the non-core unit instead of cash bonuses. Another idea under review is replacing the cash component with more Deutsche Bank stock.
The supervisory board may discuss the topic of variable pay at a meeting on Wednesday though no final decisions are expected, the people said, the day before it reports third-quarter earnings. The measures, if pursued in the coming months, would mostly impact the investment bank, the people said. The Frankfurt-based lender is still considering other alternatives, they said.
As Bloomberg adds, any bonus-related decision will depend on the size and timing of Deutsche Bank’s settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice over a probe into the the sale of faulty real-estate securities. Last year, Deutsche Bank awarded staff 2.4 billion euros ($2.6 billion) of bonuses for 2015, 1.45 billion euros of which was for the combined investment banking and trading unit. Of the 2.4 billion euros, 49 percent was deferred stock and cash while the remainder was paid out immediately. It appears that DB wants to take the 49% number and make it bigger.
Read the entire article
According to Bloomberg, DB executives have discussed options including giving some bankers shares in the non-core unit instead of cash bonuses. Another idea under review is replacing the cash component with more Deutsche Bank stock.
The supervisory board may discuss the topic of variable pay at a meeting on Wednesday though no final decisions are expected, the people said, the day before it reports third-quarter earnings. The measures, if pursued in the coming months, would mostly impact the investment bank, the people said. The Frankfurt-based lender is still considering other alternatives, they said.
As Bloomberg adds, any bonus-related decision will depend on the size and timing of Deutsche Bank’s settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice over a probe into the the sale of faulty real-estate securities. Last year, Deutsche Bank awarded staff 2.4 billion euros ($2.6 billion) of bonuses for 2015, 1.45 billion euros of which was for the combined investment banking and trading unit. Of the 2.4 billion euros, 49 percent was deferred stock and cash while the remainder was paid out immediately. It appears that DB wants to take the 49% number and make it bigger.
Read the entire article
October 21, 2016
David Rosenberg Calls For A Multi-Trillion, "Helicopter Money" Stimulus Package
With the inherent weakness in US GDP and the rising probability of a recession (two weeks ago Bank of America modeled that the next recession would likely start roughly one year from now), Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg thinks that with monetary options exhausted it will take a fiscal boost in the trillions of dollars to kickstart the economy. These issues were discussed in an extended interview with Real Vision TV, where the chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff proposed some radical policies to engineer the growth needed in nominal income.
His ideas, some of which can be seen here in a clip of the interview, include helicopter money attached to a $2 trillion perpetual bond, massive infrastructure spending and measures to tackle the $1 trillion student debt load that has seriously hamstrung the economy.
Doing the Same Thing Over Again and Expecting a Different Outcome
Whether the US will in fact experience the technical definition of a recession is a matter of fervent debate, with the odds something like 20%-30%, according to Rosenberg (60% according to Deutsche Bank), but with growth averaging around 1%, there is no doubt the economy is weak.
“There are some people saying a recession is here right now,” Rosenberg says, “I don't think that we meet those conditions yet. But people say, well, look. Twelve months in a row of negative year on year industrial production, that's never happened outside recession, check. We've had now going into six quarters of profit contraction, year over year. That's only happened in the context of a recession, check. I mean, all that is true, but so much of this has been related to the oil shock that we had.”
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His ideas, some of which can be seen here in a clip of the interview, include helicopter money attached to a $2 trillion perpetual bond, massive infrastructure spending and measures to tackle the $1 trillion student debt load that has seriously hamstrung the economy.
Doing the Same Thing Over Again and Expecting a Different Outcome
Whether the US will in fact experience the technical definition of a recession is a matter of fervent debate, with the odds something like 20%-30%, according to Rosenberg (60% according to Deutsche Bank), but with growth averaging around 1%, there is no doubt the economy is weak.
“There are some people saying a recession is here right now,” Rosenberg says, “I don't think that we meet those conditions yet. But people say, well, look. Twelve months in a row of negative year on year industrial production, that's never happened outside recession, check. We've had now going into six quarters of profit contraction, year over year. That's only happened in the context of a recession, check. I mean, all that is true, but so much of this has been related to the oil shock that we had.”
Read the entire article
October 10, 2016
ECB Allowed Deutsche Bank To Cheat In Latest Stress Test, FT Reports
In the latest scandal to emerge involving Deutsche Bank, earlier today the FT reported that German's largest lender was allowed to cheat, pardon was given "special treatment" by the ECB in the July stress tests. As part of the July stress tests results, which "promised to restore faith in Europe’s banks by assessing all of their finances in the same way" Deutsche Bank’s result was boosted by a "special concession" agreed to by Mario Draghi: DB's results included the $4 billion in proceeds from selling its stake in Chinese lender Hua Xia even though the deal had not been done by the end of 2015, the official cut-off point for transactions to be included.
While the Hua Xia sale was agreed in December 2015, it has still not been completed and now faces a delay after missing a regulatory deadline last month, though the bank is still confident of completion this year.
As the FT notes, the Hua Xia treatment was disclosed in a footnote to Deutsche’s stress test results, and adds that "none of the other 50 banks in the stress tests had similar footnotes, even though several also had deals agreed but not completed at the end of 2015."
As disclosed in the central bank's summer stress test, Deutsche’s common equity tier one capital fell to 7.8% after it was "subjected to the stress tests’ imagined doomsday scenario of fines, low interest rates and low economic growth." However, without the Hua Xia boost, the ratio would have been 7.4%, a level comfortably above regulatory minimums. Why the speal treatment? Because the higher published result helped reassure investors who were growing increasingly nervy about the bank’s capital adequacy.
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While the Hua Xia sale was agreed in December 2015, it has still not been completed and now faces a delay after missing a regulatory deadline last month, though the bank is still confident of completion this year.
As the FT notes, the Hua Xia treatment was disclosed in a footnote to Deutsche’s stress test results, and adds that "none of the other 50 banks in the stress tests had similar footnotes, even though several also had deals agreed but not completed at the end of 2015."
As disclosed in the central bank's summer stress test, Deutsche’s common equity tier one capital fell to 7.8% after it was "subjected to the stress tests’ imagined doomsday scenario of fines, low interest rates and low economic growth." However, without the Hua Xia boost, the ratio would have been 7.4%, a level comfortably above regulatory minimums. Why the speal treatment? Because the higher published result helped reassure investors who were growing increasingly nervy about the bank’s capital adequacy.
Read the entire article
October 7, 2016
Deutsche Bank Explores Capital-Raising Options, "All Unattractive"
Despite proclamations from various officials, business leaders, and mainstream media pundits that Deutsche Bank's demise was: a) driven by speculators, b) not driven by any need for liquidity, because c) the bank has plenty of capital... it doesn't. As Bloomberg reports, no matter how much the DoJ fine is watered-down (don't expect much), the most systemically dangerous bank in the world is holding informal talks with securities firms to explore options including raising capital; but while the lender has several options, as one analyst noted rather awkwardly, "they’re all unattractive."
After three straight days up - soaring 25% off last Friday's lows, thanks to a disproven rumor of a pending settlement with the DoJ - Deutsche Bank closed down 4% from its opening highs today, beginning the slow path to catch down to CDS-implied pain...
Deutsche Bank CEO John Cryan told Germany’s Bild newspaper in late September that he doesn’t plan to raise capital. But now it seems, perhaps the weakness in the credit market was warranted as Bloomberg reports senior advisers at top Wall Street firms are speaking to representatives of the German lender about ideas including a share sale and asset disposals, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the plans are private.
The bank is more likely to tap existing shareholders for funds to help weather mounting legal costs rather than selling asset management or merging with Commerzbank AG, Autonomous Research LLP said in a note on Oct. 3.
Read the entire article
After three straight days up - soaring 25% off last Friday's lows, thanks to a disproven rumor of a pending settlement with the DoJ - Deutsche Bank closed down 4% from its opening highs today, beginning the slow path to catch down to CDS-implied pain...
Deutsche Bank CEO John Cryan told Germany’s Bild newspaper in late September that he doesn’t plan to raise capital. But now it seems, perhaps the weakness in the credit market was warranted as Bloomberg reports senior advisers at top Wall Street firms are speaking to representatives of the German lender about ideas including a share sale and asset disposals, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the plans are private.
The bank is more likely to tap existing shareholders for funds to help weather mounting legal costs rather than selling asset management or merging with Commerzbank AG, Autonomous Research LLP said in a note on Oct. 3.
Read the entire article
October 5, 2016
Gundlach: "Deutsche Bank Will Be Bailed Out But What About Credit Suisse"
Last Thursday, when Deutsche Bank was flailing ahead of the now confirmed fake report of a reduced settlement with the DOJ, Reuters spoke to Jeff Gundlach about his thoughts regarding the German lender, his advice was simple: don't touch it. "I would just stay away. It's un-analyzable," Gundlach said about Deutsche Bank shares and debt. "It's too binary." Gundlach said investors who are betting against shares in Deutsche Bank might find it futile. Maybe, but not if they cover their shorts before the max pain point, something which the market - where equity/CDS pair trades now allow a "go for default" strategy - will actively seek out.
"The market is going to push down Deutsche Bank until there is some recognition of support. They will get assistance, if need be."
What happens then? "One day, Deutsche Bank shares will go up 40 percent. And it will be the day the government bails them out. That jump will happen in a minute," Gundlach said. "It is about an event which is completely out of your control."
The very next day his forecast was proven largely accurate, when DB soared some 25% from its overnight lows on, if not a bailout, then a report of a potentiel reprieve, even if the report ultimately ended up being wrong.
Then, earlier today, during the Grant's Fall 2016 investment conference, Gundlach once again discussed the troubled German bank and said that “you cannot save your faltering economy by killing your financial system and one of the clear poster children for this is Deutsche Bank’s stock price,” Gundlach, 56, said at Grant’s Fall 2016 Investment Conference on Tuesday in New York. “If you keep these negative interest rate policies for a sufficient future period of time you are going to bankrupt these banks.”
Read the entire article
"The market is going to push down Deutsche Bank until there is some recognition of support. They will get assistance, if need be."
What happens then? "One day, Deutsche Bank shares will go up 40 percent. And it will be the day the government bails them out. That jump will happen in a minute," Gundlach said. "It is about an event which is completely out of your control."
The very next day his forecast was proven largely accurate, when DB soared some 25% from its overnight lows on, if not a bailout, then a report of a potentiel reprieve, even if the report ultimately ended up being wrong.
Then, earlier today, during the Grant's Fall 2016 investment conference, Gundlach once again discussed the troubled German bank and said that “you cannot save your faltering economy by killing your financial system and one of the clear poster children for this is Deutsche Bank’s stock price,” Gundlach, 56, said at Grant’s Fall 2016 Investment Conference on Tuesday in New York. “If you keep these negative interest rate policies for a sufficient future period of time you are going to bankrupt these banks.”
Read the entire article
September 30, 2016
This Is How Much Liquidity Deutsche Bank Has At This Moment, And What Happens Next
It is not solvency, or the lack of capital - a vague, synthetic, and usually quite arbitrary concept, determined by regulators - that kills a bank; it is - as Dick Fuld will tell anyone who bothers to listen - the loss of (access to) liquidity: cold, hard, fungible (something Jon Corzine knew all too well when he commingled and was caught) cash, that pushes a bank into its grave, usually quite rapidly: recall that it took Lehman just a few days for its stock to plunge from the high double digits to zero.
It is also liquidity, or rather concerns about it, that sent Deutsche Bank stock crashing to new all time lows earlier today: after all, the investing world already knew for nearly two weeks that its capitalization is insufficient. As we reported earlier this week, it was a report by Citigroup, among many other, that found how badly undercapitalized the German lender is, noting that DB's "leverage ratio, at 3.4%, looks even worse relative to the 4.5% company target by 2018" and calculated that while he only models €2.9bn in litigation charges over 2H16-2017 - far less than the $14 billion settlement figure proposed by the DOJ - and includes a successful disposal of a 70% stake in Postbank at end-2017 for 0.4x book he still only reaches a CET 1 ratio of 11.6% by end-2018, meaning the bank would have a Tier 1 capital €3bn shortfall to the company target of 12.5%, and a leverage ratio of 3.9%, resulting in an €8bn shortfall to the target of 4.5%.
When Citi's note exposing DB's undercapitalization came out, it had precisely zero impact on the price of DB stock. Why? Because as we said above, capitalization - and solvency - tends to be a largely worthless, pro-forma concept. However, when Bloomberg reported today that select funds have withdrawn “some excess cash and positions held at the lender” the stock immediately plunged: the reason is that this had everything to do with not only DB's suddenly crashing liquidity, but the pernicious feedback loop, where once a source of liquidity leaves, the departure tends to spook other such sources, leading to an outward bound liquidity cascade. Again: just ask Lehman (and AIG) for the details.
Which then brings us to the $64 trillion (roughly the same amount as DB's gross notional derivative exposure) question: since DB is suddenly experiencing a sharp "liquidity event", how much liquidity does Deutsche Bank have access to as of this moment, to offset this event? The answer would allow us to calculate how long DB may have in a worst case scenario if we knew the rate of liquidity outflow.
Read the entire article
It is also liquidity, or rather concerns about it, that sent Deutsche Bank stock crashing to new all time lows earlier today: after all, the investing world already knew for nearly two weeks that its capitalization is insufficient. As we reported earlier this week, it was a report by Citigroup, among many other, that found how badly undercapitalized the German lender is, noting that DB's "leverage ratio, at 3.4%, looks even worse relative to the 4.5% company target by 2018" and calculated that while he only models €2.9bn in litigation charges over 2H16-2017 - far less than the $14 billion settlement figure proposed by the DOJ - and includes a successful disposal of a 70% stake in Postbank at end-2017 for 0.4x book he still only reaches a CET 1 ratio of 11.6% by end-2018, meaning the bank would have a Tier 1 capital €3bn shortfall to the company target of 12.5%, and a leverage ratio of 3.9%, resulting in an €8bn shortfall to the target of 4.5%.
When Citi's note exposing DB's undercapitalization came out, it had precisely zero impact on the price of DB stock. Why? Because as we said above, capitalization - and solvency - tends to be a largely worthless, pro-forma concept. However, when Bloomberg reported today that select funds have withdrawn “some excess cash and positions held at the lender” the stock immediately plunged: the reason is that this had everything to do with not only DB's suddenly crashing liquidity, but the pernicious feedback loop, where once a source of liquidity leaves, the departure tends to spook other such sources, leading to an outward bound liquidity cascade. Again: just ask Lehman (and AIG) for the details.
Which then brings us to the $64 trillion (roughly the same amount as DB's gross notional derivative exposure) question: since DB is suddenly experiencing a sharp "liquidity event", how much liquidity does Deutsche Bank have access to as of this moment, to offset this event? The answer would allow us to calculate how long DB may have in a worst case scenario if we knew the rate of liquidity outflow.
Read the entire article
September 27, 2016
Deutsche Curve Inverts As Bundesbank Dismisses State Support Of "Zombie" Banks
Deutsche Bank Sub CDS closed above 500bps for only the second day in its history (and the longer-term CDS curve inverted once again) as a bad day ended worse with Bundesbank member Andreas Dombret exclaimed "state support of banking sector must end," warning that it only "props up zombie banks." His pronouncements also pushed politicians to make the hard decisions and "tell banks they need structural reform."
As Bloomberg details, “Political support for the banking sector has to end at last,” Bundesbank board member Andreas Dombret says in text of speech in Vienna. “Unfortunately I’m only seeing this to a limited extent.”
“Without courageous realignment, banks won’t be able to permanently survive, except perhaps as zombie banks with the support of public authorities,” he says.
German and Austrian banks have to “adjust their business models so that they match the current environment,” he says.
The whole sector has to shrink, because the “systematic clean-up, inevitable after the bursting of the financial bubble, isn’t finished yet,” he says.
Discussion shouldn’t focus exclusively on “fewer banks, fewer branches,” he says, adding that the sector has to shrink to a sustainable size.
Market participants have to decide how to address overcapacities, Dombret says.
Basel III rules should be finalized by year-end and in the medium term the privileged treatment of sovereign bonds should be abolished.
Capital markets union should be advanced to strengthen capital markets as supplement to the banking system
And the credit market reacted badly with Sub CDS topping 500bps for only the 2nd day ever...
Read the entire article
As Bloomberg details, “Political support for the banking sector has to end at last,” Bundesbank board member Andreas Dombret says in text of speech in Vienna. “Unfortunately I’m only seeing this to a limited extent.”
“Without courageous realignment, banks won’t be able to permanently survive, except perhaps as zombie banks with the support of public authorities,” he says.
German and Austrian banks have to “adjust their business models so that they match the current environment,” he says.
The whole sector has to shrink, because the “systematic clean-up, inevitable after the bursting of the financial bubble, isn’t finished yet,” he says.
Discussion shouldn’t focus exclusively on “fewer banks, fewer branches,” he says, adding that the sector has to shrink to a sustainable size.
Market participants have to decide how to address overcapacities, Dombret says.
Basel III rules should be finalized by year-end and in the medium term the privileged treatment of sovereign bonds should be abolished.
Capital markets union should be advanced to strengthen capital markets as supplement to the banking system
And the credit market reacted badly with Sub CDS topping 500bps for only the 2nd day ever...
Read the entire article
July 28, 2016
Deutsche Bank Profit Plunges 98 Percent As The Outlook For ‘The World’s Riskiest Bank’ Darkens
The biggest and most important bank in the biggest and most important country in Europe continues to implode right in front of our eyes. If you follow my work regularly, you probably already know that I issued a major alarm about Deutsche Bank last September. Subsequently, Deutsche Bank stock hit an all-time low. Then I sounded the alarm about Deutsche Bank again back in May, and once again that was followed by another all-time low for Deutsche Bank. And then I warned about Deutsche Bank again in early June, and you can probably imagine what happened after that. Over the past year, this German banking giant has literally been coming apart at the seams, and in so many ways it is paralleling exactly what happened to Lehman Brothers back in 2008.
Today, we got some more bad news from Deutsche Bank. Compared to the exact same period last year, profits were down 98 percent. A nearly 100 percent drop in net income spooked a lot of investors, and Deutsche Bank shares got hit hard on Wednesday. Of course Deutsche Bank shares are already down by more than half over the past 12 months, and the financial sharks can smell blood in the water.
Just like Lehman Brothers in 2008, Deutsche Bank is essentially in panic mode at this point. They recently announced that they will be closing 188 branches and that 3,000 workers will be losing their jobs. But this could just be the beginning of the layoffs at the bank. According to some reports, the bank could cut up to 35,000 jobs by the year 2020, and CEO John Cryan recently admitted that they “may have to accelerate cost-cutting measures“.
What makes all of this even more alarming is that Deutsche Bank is widely considered to be “the most dangerous bank” on the entire planet. The following comes from a CNN article posted just today entitled “The world’s riskiest bank is in trouble“…
Read the entire article
Today, we got some more bad news from Deutsche Bank. Compared to the exact same period last year, profits were down 98 percent. A nearly 100 percent drop in net income spooked a lot of investors, and Deutsche Bank shares got hit hard on Wednesday. Of course Deutsche Bank shares are already down by more than half over the past 12 months, and the financial sharks can smell blood in the water.
Just like Lehman Brothers in 2008, Deutsche Bank is essentially in panic mode at this point. They recently announced that they will be closing 188 branches and that 3,000 workers will be losing their jobs. But this could just be the beginning of the layoffs at the bank. According to some reports, the bank could cut up to 35,000 jobs by the year 2020, and CEO John Cryan recently admitted that they “may have to accelerate cost-cutting measures“.
What makes all of this even more alarming is that Deutsche Bank is widely considered to be “the most dangerous bank” on the entire planet. The following comes from a CNN article posted just today entitled “The world’s riskiest bank is in trouble“…
Read the entire article
July 18, 2016
Deutsche Bank Loves Helicopter Money: Why "Big Inflation Is Coming... But Will First Require A Crisis"
Just over a month ago, Deutsche Bank's chief economist David Folkerts-Landau, unleashed an epic rant against the ECB, warning of social unrest and another great depression unless the ECB changes its ways. Some thought that DB was genuinely concerned about central planning, and was urging the ECB to stop all intervention altogether, but that naive read was quickly stomped out just one week ago when it emerged that the Deutsche Bank economist was merely acting out of purely selfish reasons when he called for a €150 billion bailout of Europe's banks, with the unspoken demand that Deutsche Bank should be on the very top.
Finally, any doubt was squashed this weekend, when DB's macro strategist Alan Ruskin issued a positively glowing review of Helicopter Money, barely stopping short of demanding it be unleashed immediately. To wit:
Because Helicopter money is less directed at using currency weakness as a core transmission mechanism than QE or particularly negative rates, Helicopter money should be more, rather than less acceptable to an international community worried about currency wars.
What was less emphasized is that unlike NIRP, "helicopter money", if it works, pushes the long end of the yield curve higher ahead (after all the endgame is soaring, if not hyper, inflation), something the global banking sector cripped by trillions in debt,desperately needs, and thus is precisely what Deutsce Bank needs, whose stock continues to trade just barely off all time lows.
As such, any delusions that DB was raging against failed monetary policy in general can be forgotten. All DB wanted was monetary policy that benefits, drumroll, Deutsche Bank... as the following amusing DB table "ranking" various monetary approaches shows. Needless to say, DB really likes helicopter money.
Read the entire article
Finally, any doubt was squashed this weekend, when DB's macro strategist Alan Ruskin issued a positively glowing review of Helicopter Money, barely stopping short of demanding it be unleashed immediately. To wit:
Because Helicopter money is less directed at using currency weakness as a core transmission mechanism than QE or particularly negative rates, Helicopter money should be more, rather than less acceptable to an international community worried about currency wars.
What was less emphasized is that unlike NIRP, "helicopter money", if it works, pushes the long end of the yield curve higher ahead (after all the endgame is soaring, if not hyper, inflation), something the global banking sector cripped by trillions in debt,desperately needs, and thus is precisely what Deutsce Bank needs, whose stock continues to trade just barely off all time lows.
As such, any delusions that DB was raging against failed monetary policy in general can be forgotten. All DB wanted was monetary policy that benefits, drumroll, Deutsche Bank... as the following amusing DB table "ranking" various monetary approaches shows. Needless to say, DB really likes helicopter money.
Read the entire article
July 7, 2016
Gundlach: "When Deutsche Bank Goes To Single Digits People Will Start To Panic"
Following today's Fed minutes release, Jeff Gundlach had a far less "uncertain" message: “Things are shaky and feeling dangerous,” Gundlach told Reuters in a telephone interview.
It's not just stocks that Gundlach was not too excited about, he also had some choice words about buying Treasuries here. "You're seeing people who hated the '2 percent' 10-year suddenly loving it at a 1.38-1.39 percent revisit of the all-time low closing yield," Gundlach said. "If you buy 10-year Treasuries now, I would say, it is a terrible trade location. In fact, it is the worst trade location in the history of the 10-year Treasury."
True, just like buying stocks less than 2% from all time highs, however what Gundlach failed to mention is that those who are buying Treasurys here are not doing it for the yield (or lack thereof on more than $11 trillion in notional), they are simply doing so to frontrun even more central bank purchases now that the monetary spigots have once again been activated as "confused" central banks around the world have just one trick left up their sleeve - to monetize even more debt in hopes of pushing every last investor into risk assets.
The DoubleLine bond king also had some choice words about Europe's banking crisis: "Banks are dying and policymakers don’t know what to do," Gundlach said. "Watch Deutsche Bank shares go to single digits and people will start to panic... you'll see someone say, 'Someone is going to have to do something'."
So Gundlach hates equities and bonds; what does he like? According to Reuters' Jennifer Ablan, Gundlach said that "gold remains the best investment amid fears of instability in the European Union and prolonged global stagnation, as well as concerns over the effectiveness of central bank policies."
Gundlach, a staunch supporter of the precious metal, sees gold rising to $1400 an ounce this year.
"I am not selling gold."
Read the entire article
It's not just stocks that Gundlach was not too excited about, he also had some choice words about buying Treasuries here. "You're seeing people who hated the '2 percent' 10-year suddenly loving it at a 1.38-1.39 percent revisit of the all-time low closing yield," Gundlach said. "If you buy 10-year Treasuries now, I would say, it is a terrible trade location. In fact, it is the worst trade location in the history of the 10-year Treasury."
True, just like buying stocks less than 2% from all time highs, however what Gundlach failed to mention is that those who are buying Treasurys here are not doing it for the yield (or lack thereof on more than $11 trillion in notional), they are simply doing so to frontrun even more central bank purchases now that the monetary spigots have once again been activated as "confused" central banks around the world have just one trick left up their sleeve - to monetize even more debt in hopes of pushing every last investor into risk assets.
The DoubleLine bond king also had some choice words about Europe's banking crisis: "Banks are dying and policymakers don’t know what to do," Gundlach said. "Watch Deutsche Bank shares go to single digits and people will start to panic... you'll see someone say, 'Someone is going to have to do something'."
So Gundlach hates equities and bonds; what does he like? According to Reuters' Jennifer Ablan, Gundlach said that "gold remains the best investment amid fears of instability in the European Union and prolonged global stagnation, as well as concerns over the effectiveness of central bank policies."
Gundlach, a staunch supporter of the precious metal, sees gold rising to $1400 an ounce this year.
"I am not selling gold."
Read the entire article
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