UK's Metro Bank Teeters after Bond Sale Fails. Shares Collapsed 95%

Hedge-fund manager Steven Cohen and Michael Bloomberg are among those ruing the day they bought the crushed shares of the UK bank touted as a "bargain"...

Even by its own recent standards, Metro Bank has had a torrid week. On Monday, shares of the British retail bank tumbled 5%, on Tuesday, 25%, on Wednesday, 5%, and on Thursday, 4.5%, before staging a brief comeback in the final hours of trading on Friday, to end the week 35% lower. By Friday morning, it was the second most-shorted stock on the FTSE all shares index, behind the collapsed travel & vacation-giant Thomas Cook.

The main trigger for this week’s rout was the bank’s failure on Monday to raise a much-needed £250 million by issuing non-preferred bonds that deeply skeptical investors spurned. Despite trying to lure buyers with an interest rate of 7.5%, double the rate of similar offerings, Metro only attracted £175 million worth of orders, prompting the embattled lender to pull the plug on the bond sale.

“Failure to get enough support for a product that is yielding 7.5% is quite remarkable when you consider how investors are struggling to find generous levels of income in the current market,” said Russ Mould, the investment director of AJ Bell.

“It suggests that investors don’t trust the bank or they believe the 7.5% yield is simply not high enough to compensate for the risks of owning such a product.”

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Multi Billion Fund Blocks Redemptions

In a moment of financial serendipity, earlier today we tweeted that as a result of the sudden collapse in the market's most crowded positions (which as we noted over the weekend, now face the biggest risk of a wipe out), "hedge fund redemption requests re-emerge."

It turns out we were very much spot on, because just a few hours later, the Financial Times reported that Neil Woodford, the UK's equivalent of David Tepper, has blocked redemptions from his £3.7bn equity income fund after serial underperformance led to an investor exodus, "inflicting a serious blow to the reputation of the UK’s highest-profile fund manager."

The freeze on redemptions, exactly five years after Woodford opened his eponymous fund management group, underlines his increasingly precarious position. It follows a steady stream of investor outflows, which have occurred each month for two years, with the fund shrinking by two-thirds to £3.7bn since a peak of £10.2bn in May 2017.

The severity of this latest hit to the hedge fund industry can not be underscored enough. The FT quoted a veteran fund manager who has known Woodford for more than 20 years, who said that "this is one of the bigger events for the UK asset management industry of the last decade. A bonfire of reputation and a terrible moment for investor confidence."

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UK Borrowing Surpasses Most Other Countries

The rate at which UK institutions, households and businesses are borrowing money is greater than that of all other OECD countries.

This fact is alarming some economists not only because the rate of UK borrowing is high against the country’s GDP, but, as Statista's Katharina Buchholz points out, it also because households, business and state coffers are running a deficit simultaneously for the first time since the 1980s.

Yet, a lot of the of the money borrowed is going into the housing market that is currently booming in the UK, therefore potentially creating valuable assets for citizens in the future. The same is true for the state, with some economists claiming investment in the future to be more important than a positive net lending score, according to reporting by the Financial Times.

The opposite of this attitude can be observed in OECD countries like Germany, where the government is among those pursuing a radically different borrowing strategy aimed at reducing debt. The country with the lowest borrowing rate in the OECD was Ireland.

Not included in the data by the OECD are overseas investments by Britons as well as foreigners’ financial business in the UK. Here, another troublesome statistic emerges. While the UK had been running a net profit for overseas lending and borrowing in the past, the situation has reversed since the financial crisis.

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Nearly Everyone Is A Socialist Now - Just The Way The Elites Want It

The expansionary phase of the global economy is almost certainly ending. A combination of excessive debt and trade protectionism is likely to become economically and politically destabilising. If, as seems increasingly likely, the world is destined for another credit and economic crisis, the colour of the political establishment will shape outcomes. This article examines the political scene and concludes that socialist puppet-masters will use the opportunity in an attempt to crush capitalism.

In 1975, I watched from the Strangers’ Gallery the debate in the House of Commons when the Referendum Act for membership of the Common Market was in its second reading. It was to be the first referendum ever held in the UK, and as one would imagine was contentious for that reason. The Labour government of the day had laid an act before Parliament for a referendum to ratify the European Communities Act of 1972, in other words, the UK’s membership of the Common Market.

The debate was not about membership, but the precedent of holding a referendum and its potential to undermine parliament’s sole right to take decisions on behalf of the people. In those days, MPs made proper speeches, not the time-limited five or so minutes permitted by Mr Speaker. A debate of this sort was worth listening to.

I was struck by the similarities of argument put forward by the two greatest parliamentary orators of the day. Michael Foot was the doyen of the extreme left in the Labour Party, and Enoch Powell was said to be on the extreme right (he wasn’t – he was a staunch free marketeer: more on this to follow). From their different perspectives their arguments were almost identical, and both spoke eloquently without notes.

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"The World Is Sleepwalking Into A Financial Crisis": Former UK PM Gordon Brown

"We are in danger of sleepwalking into a future crisis," Brown told The Guardian in a recent interview at his estate in Scotland. "There is going to have to be a severe awakening to the escalation of risks, but we are in a leaderless world."

The former prime minister, who lost the 2010 election following Britain’s deepest recession on a post-war basis, said that countercyclical measures by governments and central banks have become widely exhausted. He warned the ability for global central banks to drop interest rates is not as readily possible today as it was a decade ago, while finance ministries would also have difficulty injecting fiscal stimulus, and here is the surprise: there is no guarantee that China would bail out the world, again.

"The cooperation that was seen in 2008 would not be possible in a post-2018 crisis both in terms of central banks and governments working together. We would have a blame-sharing exercise rather than solving the problem."

Brown had its doubts that China would be as cooperative for the second time to provide a global stimulus, primarily due to the Trump administration's trade war launched squarely at Beijing. "Trump’s protectionism is the biggest barrier to building international cooperation," he said.

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It's A Perverse World Where Stocks Rally On "The US vs The Rest Of The World"

BoE's Grand Plan, ESG and Air France calling Macron's Bluff

Its Bank of England day tomorrow and you just got to wonder if it’s all going according to Mark Carney’s Grand Plan. Since his mumble-swerve on rate hikes because of weaker economic data 3 weeks ago – which prompted lots of hair pulling, unreliable boyfriend comments, and bafflement on what the BOE can do - the pound has crashed through the floor versus the dollar and wobbled badly on the Euro. Well done Mr Carney – it’s the most effective way to keep the currency down and the UK competitive!

While the UK is already in enough trouble from the Tories ability to turn a simple goodbye Europe into a Brexit political clusterf**k of monumental proportions.. (OK, I’m being flippant, but Brexit really doesn’t matter….) what’s not to like about weaker sterling – unless you were planning a holiday abroad? In the absence of any monetary policy tools left in the box – cos you can’t cut rates when they’ve already been cut to nada (unless you are Japan or Switzerland, and the UK clearly is not) - then currency games are the only way.

So get over the “disappointment” of no hike tomorrow and get on with it.. Although, its worth wondering what it means for the UK’s place in this “Macro Aligned Synchronised Global Recovery..” Or is it another sign the global recovery is stalling…? (More than a few of my clients will call and ask “what economic recovery???”) – One day they may erect a monument to central banks and carve into it: “They created a desert and called it peace…”

Elsewhere, it’s a perverse world where stocks rally on the US versus the rest of the World re Iran. Its’ certainly bad news for the Iranians – the Yooropeens and Theresa Might can bleat about it being unfair, but no sane investor or rational business is going to risk a single penny on Iran. The ESG implications are just too painful to contemplate…

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UK Banks Too Scared Of Regulator To Open Accounts For Crypto Companies

Want to set up a company to trade cryptocurrencies in the City of London. Forget about it.

Lloyd Blankfein tweeted about spending more time in Frankfurt, now London is shunning the fastest growing sector in finance. From the FT

British banks are shunning companies that handle cryptocurrencies, forcing many to open accounts in Gibraltar, Poland and Bulgaria and prompting some to question the UK’s ambitions to be a global hub for the fast-growing fintech sector.

Investor interest in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has surged since their prices rocketed this year, but traditional banks are steering clear of the sector, fearing it is riddled with criminals and fraudsters. ‘Nobody will give us a bank account in the UK,’ said James Godfrey, head of capital markets at BlockEx, a platform for trading digital assets including cryptocurrencies. He said Metro Bank recently shut its UK account, forcing it to rely on a Bulgarian lender to keep trading. Mr Godfrey said the disruption had prompted BlockEx to consider moving to a more welcoming location, such as Toronto.

‘Having [Bank of England governor] Mark Carney standing at the front of the shop and saying ‘raa, raa, fintech’ just doesn’t do it for me.’ Metro Bank declined to comment. Michael Hudson, chief executive of the bitcoin investment firm Bitstocks, said:

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Leaving The EU's Customs Union Is The Only Logical Step For A Truly "Global Britain"

As UK Prime Minister Theresa May prepares to trigger the Article 50 EU exit mechanism on Wednesday, Open Europe has published a new report, entitled, ‘Nothing to declare: A plan for UK-EU trade outside the Customs Union.’

The study concludes that leaving the EU’s Customs Union is the only logical step for the UK to pursue an independent trade policy and achieve a truly ‘Global Britain’ outside the EU. Open Europe assesses different models of collaboration outside a customs union, and argues that the UK and the EU should aim for full cooperation on the practicalities and administration of customs as part of a comprehensive UK-EU free trade deal.

A dozen key points on customs

The UK should leave the EU’s Customs Union (EUCU). The UK Government has stated its intention to leave key parts of EUCU (the Common External Tariff and the Common Commercial Policy). Open Europe’s assessment is that leaving these and EUCU overall is correct. Brexit means the UK must be able to shape its own trade policy. It can only do so outside of EUCU.

The UK should not seek a ‘half-in, half-out’ arrangement, which would be the worst of all worlds. The UK should leave EUCU entirely to maximise opportunities. Prime Minister Theresa May has suggested that she is open to being an “associate member” of EUCU or remaining a signatory to elements of it. Open Europe believes that, while it is sensible to keep an open mind, no ‘half-in’ option is better than being fully out. Nonetheless, the UK should consider retaining membership of some relevant conventions.

It is in both the UK’s and EU’s interest quickly to secure full cooperation on the practicalities and administration of customs as part of a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Such an agreement could be a chapter in a UK-EU FTA or an accompanying, discrete customs facilitation agreement. The EU already has agreements on customs facilitation with non-members, including Switzerland and Canada. A comprehensive UK-EU FTA will ensure the continuation of tariff-free UK-EU trade and minimise customs delays.

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Pound Surges After UK Government Loses Article 50 Lawsuit; Brexit Needs Parliamentary Approval High Court Rules

The decision means that the U.K. must hold a vote in Parliament before starting the two-year countdown to Brexit, a panel of London judges decided, setting up a constitutional confrontation at the country’s Supreme Court.  London judges deliver a decision that could be a setback for Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan to unilaterally start the process by the end of March by invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

U.K. Trade Secretary Liam Fox said “the government is disappointed by the court’s judgement.” adding that "The country voted to leave the European Union in a referendum established by an act of Parliament." Speaking to lawmakers in the House of Commons in London, Fox also said that "It’s right we consider it carefully before deciding how to proceed."

The UK Government seeks to appeal the ruling on December 7 at the Supreme Court.

Absent an overturn on appeal, lawmakers could now influence Theresa May's approach to Brexit and if a majority is opposed it could theoretically delay or even stop the process. Mrs. May’s ruling Conservative Party is the largest party in Parliament, with a majority of 15 seats.

More details from Sky News, which explains that according to the ruling, Theresa May cannot trigger Brexit without putting it to an MPs' vote in the House of Commons, the High Court has ruled.

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The UK Is Now "At The Front Of The Queue" As America Rushes To Pass A Trade Deal

Less than 3 months ago, on April 22, in an address to the British people that may have cost David Cameron his job and led to the ever more rancorous divorce between the UK and the EU, Barack Obama warned that the UK would be at the “back of the queue” in any trade deal with the US if the country chose to leave the EU, as he made an emotional plea to Britons to vote for staying in.

Two months later, a majority of Brits gave Obama the finger and Britain is no longer part of Europe.

But while that story in itself would be quite satisfying, it turns out that Obama lied. Again.

As it turns out, not only is the UK not at the back of the queue, it now finds itself at the very front. As reported by the FT, the Obama administration has begun preliminary discussions with senior UK officials about how they might pursue a trade agreement between the two countries following Britain’s exit from the EU, Washington’s top trade official said. 

The discussions were revealed on Thursday by Mike Froman, the US trade representative, and coincide with a growing push by Republican Brexit supporters in Congress for President Barack Obama to launch talks on a commercial pact quickly.

So much for yet another typically hollow, worthless threat by the well-spoken, teleprompted golfer in chief. Even the FT is amused by the idiotic diplomacy of the president, which highlights "how quickly the president and his administration have backed away from his warnings before last month’s referendum that Britain would be at the “back of the queue” for any trade deals with the US if it voted to leave the EU."

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