When Tightening Leads to Easing

US Fed likely to tighten before year end ... The US Federal Reserve is on track to raise rates before year end, with a pick-up in economic activity and positive dialogue emerging from the central bank – Investor Daily

Dominant Social Theme: The economy is booming. Hike, hike, hike. It's all we can do.

Free-market Analysis: The tightening talk is picking up. Principal Global Investors manages some US$350 billion, much of it in retirement plans, and its officials "now assess the likelihood of a December rate rise at 54 per cent," according to Investor Daily. A March rise is assessed at 71 per cent.

Principal Global Investors global chief economist Robert Baur believes US economic data now justifies a rate rise, we learn. US Federal Reserve Officials had contemplated a hike but Chinese market instability forced a hiatus.

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