With the inherent weakness in US GDP and the rising probability of a recession (two weeks ago Bank of America modeled that the next recession would likely start roughly one year from now), Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg thinks that with monetary options exhausted it will take a fiscal boost in the trillions of dollars to kickstart the economy. These issues were discussed in an extended interview with Real Vision TV, where the chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff proposed some radical policies to engineer the growth needed in nominal income.
His ideas, some of which can be seen here in a clip of the interview, include helicopter money attached to a $2 trillion perpetual bond, massive infrastructure spending and measures to tackle the $1 trillion student debt load that has seriously hamstrung the economy.
Doing the Same Thing Over Again and Expecting a Different Outcome
Whether the US will in fact experience the technical definition of a recession is a matter of fervent debate, with the odds something like 20%-30%, according to Rosenberg (60% according to Deutsche Bank), but with growth averaging around 1%, there is no doubt the economy is weak.
“There are some people saying a recession is here right now,” Rosenberg says, “I don't think that we meet those conditions yet. But people say, well, look. Twelve months in a row of negative year on year industrial production, that's never happened outside recession, check. We've had now going into six quarters of profit contraction, year over year. That's only happened in the context of a recession, check. I mean, all that is true, but so much of this has been related to the oil shock that we had.”
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