Trump Picks Former Goldman Banker Steven Mnuchin As Treasury Secretary

While it has yet to be officially confirmed by the Trump transition team, moments ago the NYT reported that - in what had previously been leaked on several occasions on various other outlets most notably the WSJ - former Goldman banker and Soros employee, Steven Mnuchin "a financier with deep roots on Wall Street and in Hollywood but no government experience" is expected to be named Donald J. Trump’s Treasury secretary as soon as Wednesday.

The WSJ has confirmed as much, reporting that "President-elect Donald Trump will name longtime banker and former Goldman Sachs executive Steven Mnuchin as Treasury secretary, turning to a campaign loyalist and fundraiser for the incoming administration’s top economic cabinet post, a transition official said Tuesday."

As the WSJ adds, "Mr. Mnuchin’s Wall Street pedigree presents a contrast with the populist themes Mr. Trump struck in his campaign, railing against big banks and vowing to close tax loopholes that benefit hedge funds. Mr. Trump also repeatedly attacked his rivals in the primary and general elections for their Wall Street ties, especially those connected to Goldman Sachs."

If confirmed by the Senate as Treasury secretary, Mr. Mnuchin will join a list of prominent bankers who made similar moves from Wall Street to Washington, including two of his former bosses at Goldman, Henry Paulson and Robert Rubin, who were both top Goldman executives before running Treasury.

Read the entire article

"Europe Will Devalue Or Dissolve..."

No rest for the wicked. With the shockwaves from Brexit and President Trump still reverberating around the world, the established order is bracing for more bad news. Next up is a December 4 Italian constitutional referendum that might end the reign of centrist prime minister Matteo Renzi and replace him with a bunch of anti-euro iconoclasts from the Brexit/Trump part of the spectrum. Here’s an excerpt from a much longer, deep-context Guardian UK article:

As the air of insurgency becomes unmistakable, the technical debate over reforming a 70-year-old constitution is in danger of becoming a sideshow. Perhaps the most disturbing poll for Renzi found last week that only 40% of Italians say they will vote on the reform package; 56% consider their vote to be more a verdict on the prime minister, his government and, by implication, the state of the nation.

If that bigger picture still dominates come polling day, it is hard to see anything but defeat for a man once billed as Italy’s Tony Blair. After 13 years of a flatlining economy, Italians are battered, bruised and looking for somebody to blame. Unemployment is running at 11%, but is close to 40% among the young, who made up the bulk of the 107,000 who left the country last year to seek work abroad. The aftermath of the financial crash is estimated to have wiped out about a quarter of Italian industry. The average family income is less now than it was in 2007.

Traditionally among the most enthusiastic proponents of European integration, ordinary Italians are furious at the EU’s failure to share the burden of the huge migration surge to their southern shores. Lectures from Brussels on the need to cut public spending and balance budgets, given the desperately straitened times, have added insult to injury. It is no coincidence that a current bookshop bestseller – 1960: The Best Year of Our Lives – is a nostalgic evocation of the Italian postwar economic miracle, when the country’s growth was judged to outstrip Germany’s.

Read the entire article

Black Friday Sales Slump As Retail Tracker Admits Holiday Season "Off To A Slow Start", Blames Warm Weather

Sales and traffic at U.S. brick-and-mortar stores on Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday declined from last year, as Reuters reports that stores offered discounts well beyond the weekend and more customers shopped online.

The National Retail Federation reports that spending per person over Thanksgiving Weekend this year was $289.19, down 3.4% from $299.60 in the same period last year.

Internet sales rose in the double digits on both days, surpassing $3 billion for the first time on Black Friday, according to data released on Saturday.

Data from analytics firm RetailNext showed net sales at brick-and-mortar stores fell 5.0% over the two days, while the number of transactions fell 7.9%.

Reuters report that ShopperTrak data highlights the waning importance of Black Friday, which until a few years ago kicked off the holiday shopping season, as more retailers start discounting earlier in the month and opened their doors on Thanksgiving Day.

Read the entire article

October Was The Worst Month For Hedge Funds Yet This Year

Another month, and the pain for the hedge fund industry just keeps getting more intense.

According to the latest Evestment report, investors redeemed an estimated net $14.2 billion from hedge funds in October. Year-to-date, there has been  a net $77.0 billion removed from the industry.  October’s outflow was the fourth month of redemptions in the last five and seventh in 2016. Due to the  breadth of products experiencing outflows, and the persistence of redemptions outweighing new allocations, it is clear the industry is experiencing a crisis -like wave of negative investor sentiment.

One almost wonders how much higher the market can keep rising with redemption requests flooding countless back offices. We hope to find out soon.

Here are the rest of the details on the latest, ongoing, troubles facing the hedge fund industry which, unless something drastically changes soon may end up being a "zero hedge" industry:

The breadth of redemption pressure in October was the industry’s largest in 2016 with 61% of reporting funds estimated to have net outflow during the month. The last five months have accounted for the majority of the industry’s redemptions in 2016, a time frame which aligns with investors’ processes for analyzing 2015 results, and taking actions on those decisions.

Read the entire article

Relentless Dollar Surge Continues: Asian Currencies Plunge To 7 Year Lows, Hitting Emerging Markets

While most global equity markets were subdued due to the US Thanksgiving holiday, the FX world was very busy overnight, marked by the relentless dollar surge on expectations of a rate hike not only in December but further in 2017, sending Asian currencies to the weakest level in 7 years: the Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index reached 103.32, the lowest level since March 2009.

The regional FX plunge will likely deter regional central banks from easing monetary policies as the prospects of higher U.S. rates spurred capital outflows according to Toru Nishihama, an emerging-market economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute who added that depreciating currencies are making it very hard for central banks to ease on concerns about inflationary pressure and acceleration of fund outflows.

The dollar also pushed its way past more of last year's peaks against the euro to hit $1.0550 in early European action, with only the March 2015 high of $1.0457 standing in the way of a drive toward parity, likewise the yen skidded to an eight-month low and China's yuan to an 8-1/2 year low, while the highly sensitive Turkish lira and Indian rupee hit new historic troughs, although the USD has since given up some of the gains.

"There doesn't seem to be anything stopping U.S. yields going higher in the near-term so I think people are going to stay on the dollar trend," said Michael Metcalfe, head of global macro strategy at State Street Global Markets.

"The only risk to this are that the dislocations in markets outside of the U.S., particularly in emerging markets, get to a point where they start to feed back into concerns (for the Federal Reserve as it looks to raise interest rates)," he said.

Read the entire article

Forget Deutsche Bank, These 2 American Banks Are Now "The Most Systemically Dangerous In The World"

Back in the summer we wrote about an IMF report that flagged Deutsche Bank as the "most important net contributor to systemic risks" (see "'Deutsche Bank Poses The Greatest Risk To The Global Financial System': IMF").  Those who read our site frequently were likely not terribly surprised by the IMF's conclusion.

Among the G-SIBs, Deutsche Bank appears to be the most important net contributor to systemic risks, followed by HSBC and Credit Suisse. In turn, Commerzbank, while an important player in Germany, does not appear to be a contributor to systemic risks globally. In general, Commerzbank tends to be the recipient of inward spillover from U.S. and European G-SIBs. The relative importance of Deutsche Bank underscores the importance of risk management, intense supervision of G-SIBs and the close monitoring of their cross-border exposures, as well as rapidly completing capacity to implement the new resolution regime.

That said, we suspect the latest ranking of global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) by the Financial Stability Board may be a bit more surprising to our readers, among others, as it features two of America's largest banks right at the very top. 

Read the entire article

S&P Set To Open At All Time High, Boosted By Rising Crude On More "OPEC Deal Optimism"

European and Asian stocks rose after the early scare from the latest Fukushima quake dissipated when all Tsunami warnings were cancelled. The global risk on mood was spurred by another jump in crude, which was up 1% in early trading, with the commodity complex now enjoying its biggest three-day rally since May, after Nigeria signaled optimism that OPEC will agree a supply-cut deal next week in Vienna. S&P futures are up 0.3%, with the cash index set to open at new record highs.

With OPEC jawboning having become a daily fixture ahead of the cartel's now almost monthly summits, today was no exception, and earlier in the session, a Nigerian OPEC delegate said he expects details of the Vienna accord to be finalized Tuesday (and if they are not, this will just serve as a basis for a similar headline tomorrow, and then day after, and so on).

“Everyone is on board,” delegate Ibrahim Waya said in Vienna, where OPEC members are meeting to discuss output quotas ahead of the November 30 summit. Brent and WTI both extended gains following the headlines, pushing index futures higher with them.

The commodity story - on hopes of a global fiscal stimulus push - dominated as miners led the MSCI All-Country World Index higher while S&P500 futures on the S&P 500 Index advanced 0.3 percent. On Monday, the American gauge reached a record for the first time since Aug. 15, just as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Russell 2000 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index hit fresh all-time highs.

Oil reached the strongest level in more than three weeks. Copper headed for its highest close since July 2015. Euro-area bonds rose on optimism the region’s central bank will extend stimulus.

Read the entire article

We Are Being Set Up For Higher Interest Rates, A Major Recession And A Giant Stock Market Crash

Since Donald Trump’s victory on election night we have seen the worst bond crash in 15 years. Global bond investors have seen trillions of dollars of wealth wiped out since November 8th, and analysts are warning of another tough week ahead.  The general consensus in the investing community is that a Trump administration will mean much higher inflation, and as a result investors are already starting to demand higher interest rates.  Unfortunately for all of us, history has shown that higher interest rates always cause an economic slowdown.  And this makes perfect sense, because economic activity naturally slows down when it becomes more expensive to borrow money.  The Obama administration had already set up the next president for a major recession anyway, but now this bond crash threatens to bring it on sooner rather than later.

For those that are not familiar with the bond market, when yields go up bond prices go down.  And when bond prices go down, that is bad news for economic growth.

So we generally don’t want yields to go up.

Unfortunately, yields have been absolutely soaring over the past couple of weeks, and the yield on 10 year Treasury notes has now jumped “one full percentage point since July”…

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 2.36% in late trading on Friday, the highest since December 2015, up 66 basis point since the election, and up one full percentage point since July!

The 10-year yield is at a critical juncture. In terms of reality, the first thing that might happen is a rate increase by the Fed in December, after a year of flip-flopping. A slew of post-election pronouncements by Fed heads – including Yellen’s “relatively soon” – have pushed the odds of a rate hike to 98%.

Read the entire article

Ford CEO Folds? Trump Confirms Carmaker Won't Move Production To Mexico

Just hours after Ford CEO complained of the "huge impact" of Donald Trump's proposed trade plans, following the company's plan to move a substantial portion of its passenger-car production to Mexico from a factory in Michigan, Donald Trump tweeted “Just got a call from my friend Bill Ford, Chairman of Ford, who advised me that he will be keeping the Lincoln plant in Kentucky -- no Mexico," seemingly winning his first 'america-first' victory. 

As WSJ reported yesterday, Ford Motor Co. Chief Executive Mark Fields issued a warning about President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed trade policies, saying high tariffs on automobiles and other products coming into the U.S. would be a blow to the auto industry and broader U.S. economy.

Mr. Fields, speaking with reporters on the sidelines of the Los Angeles Auto Show on Tuesday, said Ford has talked to Mr. Trump’s transition team and believes the company can work with the new administration. During a separate interview, he said, “We all share the same objective; we want a vibrant and healthy U.S. economy.”

The two sides, however, appear to be at odds on how to achieve that goal.

Ford’s plan to move a substantial portion of its passenger-car production to Mexico from a factory in Michigan was heavily criticized by Mr. Trump on the campaign trail. Like many of its rivals, Ford is building more-profitable light trucks in the U.S. while investing in new capacity in Mexico to produce lower-margin small cars.

And then hours later, Donald Trump tweeted...

Read the entire article

War On Cash Intensifies: Citibank To Stop Accepting Cash At Some Branches

Less than a week after India’s surprise move to scrap its highest denomination cash notes, another front in the War on Cash has intensified down under in Australia.

Yesterday, banking giant UBS proposed that eliminating Australia’s $100 and $50 bills would be “good for the economy and good for the banks.”

(How convenient that a bank would propose something that’s good for banks!)

This isn’t the first time that the financial establishment has pushed for a cashless society in Australia (or anywhere else).

In September 2015, Australian bank Westpac published its “Cash Free Report”, suggesting that the country would become cashless by 2022.

In July 2016, Australian payments firm Tyro published an enormously self-serving blog post touting the benefits of a cashless society and saying, “it’s only a matter of time.”

Most notably, two days ago, Citibank (yes, THAT Citibank) announced that it was going cashless at some of its Australian branches.

Read the entire article

Global Bonds Plunge As "Trumpflation" Rally Returns, Dollar Jumps

After taking a one day breather, the "Trumpflation" Rally returned with a vengeance as global government bonds tumbled and the dollar rose on renewed speculation the economic outlook is strong enough to allow the Federal Reserve to hike in December (odds are now 94%). Asian shares rose, industrial metals and crude oil fell, European shares and US equity futures were pressured.

As reported last night, the latest bond selloff started in Japan where JGB futures slid after a BOJ buying operation was poorly received, and yields on both the 2Y and 5Y rose to or above the BOJ's -0.1% interest rate. 10 year Japanese yields have edged back above zero intra-day for the first time since September 21st and the market will at some stage focus on whether the BoJ will defend the zero level, especially if the global yield sell-off gathers pace over the coming weeks and months. It would be a strange decision to abandon the new policy so soon after announcing it so assuming global yields remain elevated they may be forced to buy more JGBs than they thought when the new scheme was announced.

As DB's Jim Reid observes, if the BoJ sticks to defending zero in a world where the US is likely to increase fiscal spending then you could make an argument that there is full blown helicopter money except that the BoJ is flying the copter over the US and may be about to become the new US government’s best friend. Without them, and without the ECB, it might be that Trump would be less able to spend freely on the fiscal side as yields would be less supported globally. Certainly one way to think of in our opinion.

Read the entire article

The Election Of Donald Trump Is Already Having An Enormous Impact On The Economy

The election of Donald Trump has sent shockwaves through the U.S. economy and the U.S. financial system.  Since November 8th, the Dow has hit a brand new all-time record high, the U.S. dollar has strengthened greatly, and bank stocks are way up.  But not all of the economic news is good news.  Unlike stocks, bonds have reacted very negatively to Trump’s election victory.  The past week has been an absolute bloodbath for bond traders, and as you will see below this is going to have dramatic implications for all U.S. consumers moving forward.

Over just a two day period, more than a trillion dollars was wiped out as bond yields spiked all over the globe.  As CNN has noted, this type of “violent reaction” in the bond market has only happened three other times within the past ten years…

The rate on 10-year Treasury notes has surged to 2.3%, from 1.77% before the election. Last week’s spike in Treasury rates was so big, that it had only happened three times before in the last decade.

BlackRock’s Russ Koesterich called it a “violent reaction.”

The move stands to have broad repercussions for all Americans. Not only will the U.S. government have to pay more to borrow money, but mortgage rates and car loan costs should also rise. That’s because Treasuries are used as the benchmark for many other forms of credit.

Read the entire article

What Happens When 2-Term Presidencies End?

Four words - nothing good for stocks.

With the election decided, the burning question now is, “What next?” And, as Axioma details in their latest report, as “unprecedented” as the 2016 US Presidential election may have been, there are at least some precedents to which we can point for insights into what may now lie ahead.

Granted, the economic impact of policies introduced by Donald Trump will not be seen for many months or years. Nevertheless, we can look to other market events to get an idea of what we might expect in equity and currency markets over the near term, while the markets are still absorbing the news.

Admittedly, two examples of vote-related surprises (2000 uncertainty post-election, and Brexit) and associated market movements and volatilities, along with the example of how the market may view one of Trump’s signature issues (NAFTA agreement in Jan 1994), are hardly comprehensive indicators of what we might see in markets over the next few months; and of course, the economic impact of trade and other policies may not be known for months or years. But we believe the uncertainty and associated market volatility we have seen in the past may well come to pass again, and market volatility may become the order of the day, as the US transitions to a substantially different style of administration from the past eight years and new policies are put into place.

Read the entire article

Making Yields Great Again: Trump Unleashes A "Bigly Rates Repricing"

The details which explain why DB, which until recently was very bullish on fixed income, is now bearish on fixed income and thinks that "Trump’s victory cements the shift in the policy mix", are as follows:

Trump’s victory is fundamentally bearish fixed income from a pure economics perspective. The key risk to the view comes from increased geopolitical uncertainty.

If Trump’s economic program is taken at face value, it would imply (1) increased fiscal spending, (2) reduced regulation, (3) a change of Fed leadership and (4) increased protectionism. Each one of these factors is bearish rates.

First, as we highlighted last week, Trump’s plan is consistent with more than 2.5% of GDP of annual fiscal stimulus over the next ten years (see table below). Of course, the extent to which the plan will be implemented is unclear. However, Trump is arguably in a strong position relative to the Republican Party and the latter controls both the House and the Senate. This should give Trump leverage to implement his fiscal plan, at least initially. Also, one of the clear statements made by Trump in his acceptance speech was that he intends to significantly increase infrastructure spending. It is worth noting that the Fed in principle welcomes more fiscal support as it sees the US economy as being constrained by a lack of demand. Given that the fiscal stimulus will occur as the US economy is close to full employment, it should have a faster spillover on monetary policy, notwithstanding the desire from the current Fed leadership to run the economy hot. Increased fiscal spending should be supportive of higher yields from a macro perspective (supports domestic demand and inflation) and from a flow perspective (reduces the supply/demand imbalance).

Read the entire article

Everything Is Soaring As Trump Makes Buying Stuff Great Again

Who would have thought - as recently as two days ago - that a Trump presidency is the best thing for global risk? Certainly not Wall Street experts, all of whom warned of drops as big as 5% should Trump be elected.

And yet, the global repricing of inflation expectations continues at a feverish pace in the aftermath of the Trump victory, leading to another surge in US equity futures, up 15 points or 0.7% to 2175 at last check, with Asian and European stock market all jumping (Nikkei was up a whopping 6.7% after losing 4.6% the day before) after the initial shock of Donald Trump’s election victory gave way to optimism that his plans for fiscal stimulus will provide a boost to the global economy.  Commodity metals soared with copper surging 4.5% to $5,658.50 a metric ton, the biggest gain since May 2013, while zinc advanced 2.1% and nickel added 2%. Gold climbed on speculation whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December.

The euphoria is largely due to the market's hopes of a burst in fiscal stimulus, aka much more debt, which while self-defeating in the long run, is providing a major boost to risk assets for the short-run, as it puts QE potentially back in the picture: after all someone will be needed to monetize the US budget deficit which is expected to once again soar under president Trump.

As Citi strategists note today, "The outcome of the U.S. election leaves the policy and macroeconomic outlook in the U.S. and globally with major uncertainties. Acknowledging these major uncertainties, we expect the new administration to pursue some deregulation, fiscal expansion, and reassess the costs and benefits of free trade. The combination of policies could be inflationary, quicken the path of Fed hikes and strengthen the dollar."

Read the entire article

TPP Is a Monopoly Protection Scheme, the Exact Opposite of a “Free Trade” Deal

Normally when we think of “free trade,” us lay people, we think of removing barriers to the exchange of goods and services. Removing barriers is the “free” part of “free trade.” Of course, there really is no such thing as a “no barriers” market, since even the simplest of markets always has rules, and those who write the rules are “picking winners and losers” by definition.

Consider, for example, a flea market held in the parking lot of a local fairground on a Saturday. To participate, you have to register for a space with the organizers (the parking lot isn’t infinitely long or wide), set up an approved tent or table, and usually, if your goods are sold by weight or volume, have your weights and measuring devices certified by the organizers as honest.

All of the restrictions above place limits on the “market” — put it under control of the organizers — but consider for a minute just the last one, certified weights and measures. How is that not “picking winners and losers”? Winners — Vendors with honest scales. Losers — Vendors who cheat their customers.

Or consider a flea market without that requirement. Winners — Vendors who cheat their customers. Losers — Vendors with honest scales.

A lot has been written, in fact, about the non-existence, by definition, of anything resembling a “free market,” including much by the writer Masaccio (main site here).

Read the entire article

"I Just Lost All Faith In Our Deeply Corrupt Legal System And In The Rule Of Law In The US"

The FBI just gave Hillary Clinton the biggest gift in the history of presidential politics. Two days before the election the FBI has announced that they are ending their investigation into Hillary Clinton’s mishandling of classified information. After reviewing the emails that were found on electronic devices owned by Huma Abedin and Anthony Weiner, FBI Director James Comey sent a letter to Congress telling them that “we have not changed our conclusions that we expressed in July with respect to Secretary Clinton.” That means that there will be no indictment, and the path is now clear for Hillary Clinton to become the next president of the United States on Tuesday unless an election miracle happens.

These days it is unusual for a news story to hit me on a deeply emotional level, but this one sure did. When the FBI originally announced that they were renewing this investigation, it gave me a glimmer of hope that there may be a little bit of integrity left in our legal system.

But after yesterday’s announcement I have lost all faith in our deeply corrupt system of justice. America has become a lawless nation, and the rule of law is completely dead in this country.

Yes, it is true that those of us in the general public do not know what was contained in those emails, and Director Comey says that nothing significant was found in them…

In a letter to lawmakers, Comey said the FBI is standing by its original findings, made in July, that Clinton should not be prosecuted for her handling of classified information over email as secretary of State.

“The FBI investigative team has been working around the clock to process and review a large volume of emails from a device obtained in connection with an unrelated criminal investigation,” Comey said in the letter. “During that process we reviewed all of the communications that were to or from Hillary Clinton while she was secretary of State,” Comey wrote. “Based on our review, we have not changed our conclusions that we expressed in July with respect to Secretary Clinton.”

Read the entire article

Private Equity Energy Funds Did So Badly They Might Have to Do the Unthinkable – Pay Clawbacks

The law firm Akin Gump issued a warning that might chill the bones of some private equity general partners: clawbacks may be a-comin’. From the firm’s website:

In recent months, managers of private equity funds in the energy sector have been facing a scenario they likely never imagined: having to return millions of dollars of their “carried interest” earnings back to investors.

For newbies to this private equity practice, private equity funds typically pay the profit share, prototypically 20% once a target rate of return has been met. What creates the possibility of a clawback is the fact that for most US funds, the profit computation and any payouts are made every time a portfolio company is sold. By contrast, in “European” deals, the carry fees are paid only at the end of the fund’s life.

The conventional US approach, combined with strong general partner incentives to realize profits on at least some promising deals early in the fund’s life, means that the general partners can pay themselves carry fees that are more than they deserved once the impact of doggy companies, which are sold late in the fund’s life, are factored in. Hence the limited partnership agreements provide for “clawbacks,” as in the recovery of overpayments of carry fees.

Yet as we’ve written, clawbacks are almost never paid in practice. Why? First, the clawback provisions have tax language that is very favorable to the general partners, and has the economic effect that they can hang on what are excessive carry fees based on raw cash flows. Second, possession is 9/10ths of the law. In those instances where the general partner owes limited partner clawbacks, the general partner usually goes to the limited partners and offers them a special deal (details often unspecified!) on their next fund. Needless to say, this approach has the desirable effect of pre-committing those limited partners.

Read the entire article

"Internal Crossing" - The Unintended Consequence Of Dodd-Frank That Is Crushing Bond Liquidity And Transparency

A couple of weeks ago we wrote about the curious case of the 34-year old Goldman Sachs high-yield trader, Tom Malafronte, who has managed to make $100mm "trading" with Goldman clients so far in 2016 while somehow also complying with Dodd-Frank regulations that prevent proprietary trading.  Here is what we wrote:

Back in 2010, Congress passed the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act which was intended to shut down proprietary trading desks at the big wall street banks while allowing them to hold just enough inventory to satisfy market making requirements.  Which is why many are now questioning how a 34-year-old Goldman Sach high-yield trader, Tom Malafronte, managed to make $100mm while maintaining compliance with federal banking regulations.  As a senior trader of Skyland Capital told the Wall Street Journal, “It goes against everything we’ve been seeing the last three years."

The gains were the work of Tom Malafronte, a managing director on the bank’s high-yield-bond desk in New York. The 34-year-old trader bought billions of dollars in junk corporate debt on the cheap starting in January, then locked in profits as prices recovered, according to people familiar with the matter.

The windfall is a throwback to a previous era on Wall Street, when big banks were more eager to step in as markets turned and bond traders took bigger risks. Those bets have become less common since the crisis. Hoping to make the financial system safer, Congress passed rules that curbed banks’ ability to wager with their own money and required them to hold more capital.

Wall Street responded by shutting down its proprietary-trading desks and shrinking inventories of securities like bonds. The government allowed banks to continue trading securities in their capacity as market makers, serving as intermediaries between buyers and sellers. Regulators have said banks must show that the amount of bonds and other securities they hold on their balance sheets don’t exceed what they need to meet “reasonably expected near-term demand.”

Read the entire article

Pound Surges After UK Government Loses Article 50 Lawsuit; Brexit Needs Parliamentary Approval High Court Rules

The decision means that the U.K. must hold a vote in Parliament before starting the two-year countdown to Brexit, a panel of London judges decided, setting up a constitutional confrontation at the country’s Supreme Court.  London judges deliver a decision that could be a setback for Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan to unilaterally start the process by the end of March by invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

U.K. Trade Secretary Liam Fox said “the government is disappointed by the court’s judgement.” adding that "The country voted to leave the European Union in a referendum established by an act of Parliament." Speaking to lawmakers in the House of Commons in London, Fox also said that "It’s right we consider it carefully before deciding how to proceed."

The UK Government seeks to appeal the ruling on December 7 at the Supreme Court.

Absent an overturn on appeal, lawmakers could now influence Theresa May's approach to Brexit and if a majority is opposed it could theoretically delay or even stop the process. Mrs. May’s ruling Conservative Party is the largest party in Parliament, with a majority of 15 seats.

More details from Sky News, which explains that according to the ruling, Theresa May cannot trigger Brexit without putting it to an MPs' vote in the House of Commons, the High Court has ruled.

Read the entire article

Is ECB 'Omnipotence' "Too Powerful For Any Democracy To Abide"?

The reputation of central banks has always had its ups and downs. For years, central banks’ prestige has been almost unprecedentedly high. But a correction now seems inevitable, with central-bank independence becoming a key casualty.

Central banks’ reputation reached a peak before and at the turn of the century, thanks to the so-called Great Moderation. Low and stable inflation, sustained growth, and high employment led many to view central banks as a kind of master of the universe, able – and expected – to manage the economy for the benefit of all. The depiction of US Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan as “Maestro” exemplified this perception.

The 2008 global financial crisis initially bolstered central banks’ reputation further. With resolute action, monetary authorities made a major contribution to preventing a repeat of the Great Depression. They were, yet again, lauded as saviors of the world economy.

But central banks’ successes fueled excessively high expectations, which encouraged most policymakers to leave their monetary counterparts largely responsible for macroeconomic management. Such “expectational” and, in turn, “operational” overburdening has exposed monetary policy’s true limitations.

In other words, central banks’ good reputation now seems to be backfiring. And “personality overburdening” – when trust in the success of monetary policy is concentrated on the person at the helm of the institution – means that individual leaders’ reputations are likely to suffer as well.

Read the entire article

Over Half A Trillion In M&A: October Mergers Smash All Records With $500.1 Billion In Deals

Last week David Rosenberg pointed out that mega Merger Manias like the one we are experiencing "invariably takes place at or near cycle peaks, as companies realize that they can no longer grow their earnings organically. We have just witnessed five multi-billion dollar deals this past week alone — $207 billion globally (AT&T/Time Warner; TD Ameritrade/Scottrade) in what has been the most active announcement list since 1999 … what do you know, near the tail end of that tech bull market too."

And now that October is officially over, we can close the books on what has been an unprecedented month for M&A. According to Bloomberg, in the month when a chill was sent through the spines of corporate CFOs and their investment bankers over fears that rates are about to rise and thus make debt-funded deals more expensive, the scramble to acquire competitors went off the charts, leading to an all time high in global M&A with almost half a trillion dollars of mergers and acquisitions announced globally.

CenturyLink Inc.’s $34 billion acquisition of Level 3 Communications Inc., as well as General Electric Co.’s deal to combine its oil and gas division with Baker Hughes Inc., pushed October’s deal volumes to about $489 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the highest amount for at least 12 years, topping the previous record of $471 billion in April 2007, the data show.

Read the entire article