October 26, 2015

The Mechanics Of The Fed As Seen By The Eurodollar Curve

For a while, in that brief period between the August flash crash and the terrible September jobs report, it seemed that things may revert back to normal: bad news are bad news, good news are good news, and the economic cycle - as in the recession - is allowed to make a long-overdue repeat appearance from under the suffocating pressure of central banks.
Alas, it was not meant to be.
This is how DB's Alekandar Kocic explained it:
Last week’s developments in Europe (more QE, negative rates) and Asia (China cutting interest rates) are further reducing the probability of Fed liftoff. In all likelihood, we are one weak number away from a full relent and the market is already on the way to pricing it. But, to fully embrace this scenario, the market will likely wait for an explicit statement from the Fed. We continue to believe that repricing of the curve will follow a two step procedure with initial bull steepening followed by a bull flattening. This rates and macro view is roughly consistent with the curve approaching its shape of the late 2011, post low-for-long and operation twist, environment.
And while many - mostly those with no money on the table - debate daily what, how and when the Fed should move, for a specific subset of massively levered traders, even more so than the HFT algos who frontrun the equity market, every hiccup, stutter and vomit by Janet Yellen can mean the difference between early retirement and suicide (we hope this is a joke).

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