Who would have thought - as recently as two days ago - that a Trump presidency is the best thing for global risk? Certainly not Wall Street experts, all of whom warned of drops as big as 5% should Trump be elected.
And yet, the global repricing of inflation expectations continues at a feverish pace in the aftermath of the Trump victory, leading to another surge in US equity futures, up 15 points or 0.7% to 2175 at last check, with Asian and European stock market all jumping (Nikkei was up a whopping 6.7% after losing 4.6% the day before) after the initial shock of Donald Trump’s election victory gave way to optimism that his plans for fiscal stimulus will provide a boost to the global economy. Commodity metals soared with copper surging 4.5% to $5,658.50 a metric ton, the biggest gain since May 2013, while zinc advanced 2.1% and nickel added 2%. Gold climbed on speculation whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December.
The euphoria is largely due to the market's hopes of a burst in fiscal stimulus, aka much more debt, which while self-defeating in the long run, is providing a major boost to risk assets for the short-run, as it puts QE potentially back in the picture: after all someone will be needed to monetize the US budget deficit which is expected to once again soar under president Trump.
As Citi strategists note today, "The outcome of the U.S. election leaves the policy and macroeconomic outlook in the U.S. and globally with major uncertainties. Acknowledging these major uncertainties, we expect the new administration to pursue some deregulation, fiscal expansion, and reassess the costs and benefits of free trade. The combination of policies could be inflationary, quicken the path of Fed hikes and strengthen the dollar."
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