Recent protests in Hong Kong, along with the resulting fall out from international corporations questioned for their relationships with mainland China, has placed a renewed focus on the authoritarianism of the Chinese Communist Party. This has led to several articles identifying ways in which Western countries have learned from the CCP, including Europe's growing embrace of web censorship and growing interest in the social credit system rolled out in 2018. Given that it wasn't that long ago that it was common to see Western leaders and neoliberal commentators openly envy aspects of the Chinese political system, these concerns are certainly worth exploring. What should be of equal interest, however, is the ways China may be learning from the West.
As Joseph Salerno, among others, has noted for years now, a successful War on Cash would represent a new escalation in government's long history of weaponizing currency against the population. Moving far beyond the clipping of coins as a means of stealth tax collection, the purpose of a War on Cash is not simply to strengthen a government's grasp on the wealth of its citizens - but the move becomes a highly effective means of tracking any who find themselves in the crosshairs of the state.
These features make a cashless society attractive for any government - which explains why it has become an increasingly popular goal for politicians, bureaucrats, and central bankers in the West. This is precisely why we've seen the cause promoted from such influential economists as Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist of the IMF, Marvin Goodfriend, an economics professor at Carnegie Mellon who was once nominated to the Fed by Donald Trump, as well as various economic ministers. The governments of Australia and Sweden have made a cashless society an explicit policy goal within their countries, while some central banks — such as the ECB — have begun phasing out higher denomination bills as an opening move in their own cashless campaigns.
Of course, the international perspective of the Swedish government is quite different than that of China's — and understandably so. For all of Sweden's issues, there are no comparisons to the CCP's brutal child policies or its treatment of religious minorities. What should be understood, however, is that a successful move to a cashless society would give the Swedish government similar tools over its population as those the Communist Party seeks over its dominion. While the former may ground their policy aims in “combating drug trafficking” and “convenience,” the end result in both cases is a new terrifying weapon in the hands of the state.
Luckily, it's easier for the government to desire a cashless society than it is to create it, and we've seen countries like Sweden rethink their approach. There is reason to think that China may be less apprehensive. Not only is the government more powerful, but it is also more desperate.
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DAILY BUSINESS REPORT - Financial Updates, International Markets and Business News
Showing posts with label Global Economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Global Economy. Show all posts
November 8, 2019
Global Debt Is Up To $188,000,000,000,000 – This Is Officially The Biggest Debt Bubble The World Has Ever Seen
The world is now 188 trillion dollars in debt, and that number continues to grow rapidly each year. It is a form of enslavement that is deeply insidious, because most of those living on the planet do not even understand how the system works, and even if they did most of them would have absolutely no hope of ever getting free from it. The borrower is the servant of the lender, and the global financial system is designed to funnel as much wealth to the top 0.1% as possible. Of course throughout human history there has always been slavery, and the primary motivation for having slaves is to extract an economic benefit from those that are enslaved. And even though most of us don’t like to think of ourselves as “slaves” today, the truth is that the global elite are extracting more wealth from all of us than ever before. So much of our labor is going to make them wealthy, and yet most people don’t even realize what is happening.
Let’s start with a very simple example to help illustrate this.
When you go into credit card debt and you only make small payments each month, you can easily end up paying back more than double the amount of money that you originally borrowed.
So where does all that money go?
Well, of course it goes to the financial institution that you got your credit card from, and in turn that financial institution is owned by the global elite.
In essence, you willingly became a debt slave when you chose to go into credit card debt, and the hard work that it took to earn enough money to pay back that debt with interest ended up enriching others.
On a much larger scale, the same thing is happening to entire nations.
Today, the United States government is nearly 23 trillion dollars in debt. In essence, we have been collectively enslaved, and we have been obligated to pay back all of that money with interest. Of course at this point it is literally impossible for us to ever pay back all that debt, and every year we add another trillion dollars or so to the balance. The global elite are now extracting more than 500 billion dollars in interest from this debt on an annual basis, and it is expected that number will greatly escalate in the years ahead.
It is not an accident that the Federal Reserve and the federal income tax were both instituted in 1913. The Federal Reserve system was designed to create an endless debt spiral that would get the federal government in as much debt as possible, and since that time the size of our national debt has gotten more than 7000 times larger. And the federal income tax was needed as the mechanism through which our wealth is transferred to the government to service all of this debt.
It is truly a deeply, deeply insidious system, and the American people should refuse to back any politician that does not favor shutting it down, but at this point this isn’t even a major political issue in our nation.
Read the entire article
Let’s start with a very simple example to help illustrate this.
When you go into credit card debt and you only make small payments each month, you can easily end up paying back more than double the amount of money that you originally borrowed.
So where does all that money go?
Well, of course it goes to the financial institution that you got your credit card from, and in turn that financial institution is owned by the global elite.
In essence, you willingly became a debt slave when you chose to go into credit card debt, and the hard work that it took to earn enough money to pay back that debt with interest ended up enriching others.
On a much larger scale, the same thing is happening to entire nations.
Today, the United States government is nearly 23 trillion dollars in debt. In essence, we have been collectively enslaved, and we have been obligated to pay back all of that money with interest. Of course at this point it is literally impossible for us to ever pay back all that debt, and every year we add another trillion dollars or so to the balance. The global elite are now extracting more than 500 billion dollars in interest from this debt on an annual basis, and it is expected that number will greatly escalate in the years ahead.
It is not an accident that the Federal Reserve and the federal income tax were both instituted in 1913. The Federal Reserve system was designed to create an endless debt spiral that would get the federal government in as much debt as possible, and since that time the size of our national debt has gotten more than 7000 times larger. And the federal income tax was needed as the mechanism through which our wealth is transferred to the government to service all of this debt.
It is truly a deeply, deeply insidious system, and the American people should refuse to back any politician that does not favor shutting it down, but at this point this isn’t even a major political issue in our nation.
Read the entire article
November 6, 2019
Is The Global Dollar In Jeopardy?
Since the end of World War II, the United States dollar has been at the heart of international finance and trade. Over the decades, and despite the many ups and downs of the global economy, the dollar retained its role as the world’s favorite reserve asset. When times are tough or uncertainty reigns, investors flock to dollar-denominated assets, particularly US Treasury debt – ironically, even when there is a financial crisis in the US. As a result, the Federal Reserve – which sets US dollar interest rates – has enormous sway over economic conditions around the world.
For all the associated innovation evident since the launch of the decentralized blockchain-based currency Bitcoin in 2009, the arrival of modern cryptocurrencies has had essentially zero impact on the global taste for dollars. Promoters of these new forms of money still have their hopes, of course, that they can challenge the existing financial system, but the impact on global portfolios has proved minimal. The most powerful central banks (the Fed, the European Central Bank, and a few others) are still running the global money show.
Suddenly, however, there is a new, potentially serious player in town: Facebook’s Libra initiative. Facebook and a currently shifting coalition of firms are planning to launch their own private form of money that would, in some sense, be secured by holdings of major currencies.
Without question, Libra could become a widely used form of payment – partly because Facebook has over two billion monthly active users, but also because the existing financial system is full of inefficiencies. If private money could make it cheaper, easier, and safer to make payments, then consumers would be happy to use it. Few people care what is under the hood of the monetary engine; most just want crash-proof transactions.
The unfortunate truth is that our current payment system is expensive to run, including for sending money overseas in the form of remittances sent by workers back to their home countries. If Libra could allow people to send money as easily (and as cheaply!) as they post updates to Facebook, the currency would get a lot of likes.
We have repeatedly experienced how quickly a disruptive new digital technology can transform the economic landscape. Think of how fast taxis came under pressure from Uber and Lyft.
Read the entire article
For all the associated innovation evident since the launch of the decentralized blockchain-based currency Bitcoin in 2009, the arrival of modern cryptocurrencies has had essentially zero impact on the global taste for dollars. Promoters of these new forms of money still have their hopes, of course, that they can challenge the existing financial system, but the impact on global portfolios has proved minimal. The most powerful central banks (the Fed, the European Central Bank, and a few others) are still running the global money show.
Suddenly, however, there is a new, potentially serious player in town: Facebook’s Libra initiative. Facebook and a currently shifting coalition of firms are planning to launch their own private form of money that would, in some sense, be secured by holdings of major currencies.
Without question, Libra could become a widely used form of payment – partly because Facebook has over two billion monthly active users, but also because the existing financial system is full of inefficiencies. If private money could make it cheaper, easier, and safer to make payments, then consumers would be happy to use it. Few people care what is under the hood of the monetary engine; most just want crash-proof transactions.
The unfortunate truth is that our current payment system is expensive to run, including for sending money overseas in the form of remittances sent by workers back to their home countries. If Libra could allow people to send money as easily (and as cheaply!) as they post updates to Facebook, the currency would get a lot of likes.
We have repeatedly experienced how quickly a disruptive new digital technology can transform the economic landscape. Think of how fast taxis came under pressure from Uber and Lyft.
Read the entire article
October 25, 2019
Don't Blame The Global Slowdown On Trump's Trade War
Ever since last year, nothing has grabbed economists' attention as much as the whipsawing evolution of the US-China trade war. Just last week, the IMF downgraded its global growth forecast for 2020, citing trade and geopolitical tensions.
But economic forecasters are misunderstanding the primary cause of the current global slowdown, which means that they'll also miss what's coming next.
In hindsight, it's clear that actual global industrial production growth started slowing at the end of 2017. In other words, the year-over-year pace of increase in the world's total industrial output began a sustained decline in late 2017. That's the definition of a global industrial slowdown.
Most analysts focus on the global purchasing managers' index (PMI) data for their read on global growth because it's published each month about a month and a half before the actual production data. While the global PMI generally has a positive correlation with global industrial production growth, it doesn't measure actual industrial production, as it's based on a survey of purchasing executives about conditions facing their companies. It's really a proxy for industrial production growth, which measures real output for all companies within the manufacturing, mining and utilities industries.
In this case, while the global manufacturing PMI also started easing at the end of 2017, its decline didn't become evident until a few months into 2018, when the sustained nature of the downturn became increasingly difficult to dismiss as meaningless "noise." Coincidentally, that's just about when President Trump began his trade war, slapping tariffs on washing machines and steel and aluminum imports. Because the trade war was front and center, economists thought it was to blame for the drop in PMI and global industrial growth.
Read the entire article
But economic forecasters are misunderstanding the primary cause of the current global slowdown, which means that they'll also miss what's coming next.
In hindsight, it's clear that actual global industrial production growth started slowing at the end of 2017. In other words, the year-over-year pace of increase in the world's total industrial output began a sustained decline in late 2017. That's the definition of a global industrial slowdown.
Most analysts focus on the global purchasing managers' index (PMI) data for their read on global growth because it's published each month about a month and a half before the actual production data. While the global PMI generally has a positive correlation with global industrial production growth, it doesn't measure actual industrial production, as it's based on a survey of purchasing executives about conditions facing their companies. It's really a proxy for industrial production growth, which measures real output for all companies within the manufacturing, mining and utilities industries.
In this case, while the global manufacturing PMI also started easing at the end of 2017, its decline didn't become evident until a few months into 2018, when the sustained nature of the downturn became increasingly difficult to dismiss as meaningless "noise." Coincidentally, that's just about when President Trump began his trade war, slapping tariffs on washing machines and steel and aluminum imports. Because the trade war was front and center, economists thought it was to blame for the drop in PMI and global industrial growth.
Read the entire article
October 24, 2019
China's Growth Much Worse Than Reported, What About The US?
China doubles value of infrastructure project approvals to stave off economic slowdown amid trade war.
The South China Morning Post reports China Doubles Value of Infrastructure Project Approvals to Stave Off Slowdown.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has approved 21 projects, worth at least 764.3 billion yuan (US$107.8 billion), according to South China Morning Post calculations based on the state planner’s approval statements released between January and October this year.
The amount is more than double the size of last year’s 374.3 billion yuan (US$52.8 billion) in approvals recorded over the same period, which included 11 projects such as railways, roads and airports.
Local governments have been under increasing pressure from Beijing to support the economy, but they have less budget room due to lower tax revenues after the central government over the past year ordered individual and business tax cuts.
To fill the gap, Beijing has allowing local governments to sell more special purpose bonds, whose proceeds can only be used to fund infrastructure projects. At the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Finance raised the quota for special bonds to 2.15 trillion (US$302 billion) from 1.35 trillion (US$190 billion) last year. And when local governments came close to exhausting their annual quota set this autumn, the central government brought forward a portion of their 2020 quota so they could continue to raise funding for new projects.
Read the entire article
The South China Morning Post reports China Doubles Value of Infrastructure Project Approvals to Stave Off Slowdown.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has approved 21 projects, worth at least 764.3 billion yuan (US$107.8 billion), according to South China Morning Post calculations based on the state planner’s approval statements released between January and October this year.
The amount is more than double the size of last year’s 374.3 billion yuan (US$52.8 billion) in approvals recorded over the same period, which included 11 projects such as railways, roads and airports.
Local governments have been under increasing pressure from Beijing to support the economy, but they have less budget room due to lower tax revenues after the central government over the past year ordered individual and business tax cuts.
To fill the gap, Beijing has allowing local governments to sell more special purpose bonds, whose proceeds can only be used to fund infrastructure projects. At the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Finance raised the quota for special bonds to 2.15 trillion (US$302 billion) from 1.35 trillion (US$190 billion) last year. And when local governments came close to exhausting their annual quota set this autumn, the central government brought forward a portion of their 2020 quota so they could continue to raise funding for new projects.
Read the entire article
October 4, 2019
Will The Drive To Devalue The Dollar Lead To A Plaza Accord 2.0?
The Lead-Up to the Plaza Accord
To understand the Plaza Accord, one has to look back to August 15, 1971. On this day Richard Nixon closed the gold window. This step de facto ended the Bretton Woods system, which had been created in 1944 in the New Hampshire town of the same name and was formally terminated in 1973. The era of gold-backed currency was well and truly over; the era of flexible exchange rates had begun. Without a gold anchor, the exchange rate of every currency pair was supposed to be driven exclusively by supply and demand. National central banks — and indirectly governments as well — were at liberty to make their own decisions, free of the tight restrictions imposed by a gold standard, but they had to bear the costs of their decisions in the form of the devaluation or appreciation of their currencies. While a gold-backed currency aims to impose discipline on nations, a system of flexible exchange rates enables national idiosyncrasies to be preserved, with the exchange rate serving as a balancing mechanism.
However, unlike any other currency system, the system of free-floating currencies invites governments and central banks to manipulate exchange rates practically at will. Without reciprocal agreements, which can provide planning security to export-oriented companies in particular, the danger of international chaos is very high, as the system of flexible exchange rates lacks an external anchor.
In order to prevent this chaos, a repetition of the traumatic devaluation spiral of the 1930s, and the resulting disintegration of the global economy, IMF member nations agreed in 1976 at a meeting in Kingston, Jamaica, that “the exchange rate should be economically justified. Countries should avoid manipulating exchange rates in order to avoid the need to regulate the balance of payments or gain an unfair competitive advantage." And in this multilateral spirit — albeit under an US initiative that was strongly tinged by self-interest — an agreement was struck nine years later that has entered the economic history books as the Plaza Accord.
Read the entire article
To understand the Plaza Accord, one has to look back to August 15, 1971. On this day Richard Nixon closed the gold window. This step de facto ended the Bretton Woods system, which had been created in 1944 in the New Hampshire town of the same name and was formally terminated in 1973. The era of gold-backed currency was well and truly over; the era of flexible exchange rates had begun. Without a gold anchor, the exchange rate of every currency pair was supposed to be driven exclusively by supply and demand. National central banks — and indirectly governments as well — were at liberty to make their own decisions, free of the tight restrictions imposed by a gold standard, but they had to bear the costs of their decisions in the form of the devaluation or appreciation of their currencies. While a gold-backed currency aims to impose discipline on nations, a system of flexible exchange rates enables national idiosyncrasies to be preserved, with the exchange rate serving as a balancing mechanism.
However, unlike any other currency system, the system of free-floating currencies invites governments and central banks to manipulate exchange rates practically at will. Without reciprocal agreements, which can provide planning security to export-oriented companies in particular, the danger of international chaos is very high, as the system of flexible exchange rates lacks an external anchor.
In order to prevent this chaos, a repetition of the traumatic devaluation spiral of the 1930s, and the resulting disintegration of the global economy, IMF member nations agreed in 1976 at a meeting in Kingston, Jamaica, that “the exchange rate should be economically justified. Countries should avoid manipulating exchange rates in order to avoid the need to regulate the balance of payments or gain an unfair competitive advantage." And in this multilateral spirit — albeit under an US initiative that was strongly tinged by self-interest — an agreement was struck nine years later that has entered the economic history books as the Plaza Accord.
Read the entire article
September 4, 2019
Emerging Market Central Banks Panic With Most Rate Cuts Since Financial Crisis
The global growth outlook is the lowest since the last financial crisis, and central banks, especially ones in emerging markets, have already started to cut interest rates to make sure growth doesn't collapse.
Manufacturing across large parts of South America, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East are reeling from a global structural slowdown, amplified by the US and China trade war, have triggered emerging central banks to cut rates by the most in a decade, reported Reuters.
Emerging central banks took notice when major central banks including the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank started to cut interest rates this summer, all in an attempt to lessen the impact of a global synchronized slowdown.
Central banks across 37 emerging market economies recorded a net fourteen rate cuts in August, the most since policymakers dropped rates to zero after the global financial crash in 2008/09.
August marked the seventh straight month of net rate cuts followed by a tightening cycle that ended in early 2019. July recorded a net eight rate cuts. Cuts by Mexico and Thailand in August took markets by surprise.
After nine straight months of rate hikes in 2018, emerging central banks battled the fallout from a firm dollar, increasing inflation, and weaker local currencies.
Read the entire article
Manufacturing across large parts of South America, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East are reeling from a global structural slowdown, amplified by the US and China trade war, have triggered emerging central banks to cut rates by the most in a decade, reported Reuters.
Emerging central banks took notice when major central banks including the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank started to cut interest rates this summer, all in an attempt to lessen the impact of a global synchronized slowdown.
Central banks across 37 emerging market economies recorded a net fourteen rate cuts in August, the most since policymakers dropped rates to zero after the global financial crash in 2008/09.
August marked the seventh straight month of net rate cuts followed by a tightening cycle that ended in early 2019. July recorded a net eight rate cuts. Cuts by Mexico and Thailand in August took markets by surprise.
After nine straight months of rate hikes in 2018, emerging central banks battled the fallout from a firm dollar, increasing inflation, and weaker local currencies.
Read the entire article
September 2, 2019
US Slaps New Tariffs On China; One Minute Later China Retaliates
The biggest reason for last week's torrid stock market rally was rekindled "optimism" that the escalating trade war between the US and China may be on the verge of another ceasefire following phone conversations, fake as they may have been, between the US and Chinese side. This translated into speculation that a new round of tariffs increases slated for this weekend may not take place or be delayed.
However, that did not happen, and with no trade deal in sight, at 12:00am on Sunday, the Trump administration slapped tariffs on $112 billion in Chinese imports, the latest escalation in a trade war that’s ground the global economy to a halt, sent Germany into a recession, and given the market an alibi to keep rising because, wait for it, "a trade deal is imminent."
Only, it isn't, and 1 minute later, at 12:01am EDT, China retaliated with higher tariffs being rolled out in stages on a total of about $75 billion of U.S. goods. The target list strikes at the heart of Trump’s political support - factories and farms across the Midwest and South at a time when the U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down.
The 15% U.S. duty hit consumer goods ranging from footwear and apparel to home textiles and certain technology products like the Apple Watch. A separate batch of about $160 billion in Chinese goods - including laptops and cellphones - will be hit with 15% tariffs on Dec. 15. China, meanwhile, began applying tariffs of 5 to 10% on U.S. goods ranging from frozen sweet corn and pork liver to bicycle tires on Sunday.
The slated 15% U.S. tariffs on approximately $112 billion in Chinese goods may affect consumer prices for products ranging from shoes to sporting goods, the AP noted, and may mark a turning point in how the ongoing trade war directly affects consumers. Nearly 90% of clothing and textiles the U.S. buys from China will also be subjected to tariffs.
Read the entire article
However, that did not happen, and with no trade deal in sight, at 12:00am on Sunday, the Trump administration slapped tariffs on $112 billion in Chinese imports, the latest escalation in a trade war that’s ground the global economy to a halt, sent Germany into a recession, and given the market an alibi to keep rising because, wait for it, "a trade deal is imminent."
Only, it isn't, and 1 minute later, at 12:01am EDT, China retaliated with higher tariffs being rolled out in stages on a total of about $75 billion of U.S. goods. The target list strikes at the heart of Trump’s political support - factories and farms across the Midwest and South at a time when the U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down.
The 15% U.S. duty hit consumer goods ranging from footwear and apparel to home textiles and certain technology products like the Apple Watch. A separate batch of about $160 billion in Chinese goods - including laptops and cellphones - will be hit with 15% tariffs on Dec. 15. China, meanwhile, began applying tariffs of 5 to 10% on U.S. goods ranging from frozen sweet corn and pork liver to bicycle tires on Sunday.
The slated 15% U.S. tariffs on approximately $112 billion in Chinese goods may affect consumer prices for products ranging from shoes to sporting goods, the AP noted, and may mark a turning point in how the ongoing trade war directly affects consumers. Nearly 90% of clothing and textiles the U.S. buys from China will also be subjected to tariffs.
Read the entire article
August 22, 2019
China's Ultimate Play For Global Oil Market Control
All attention is focused on the twists-and-turns of the very noisy US-Iran dispute in the Persian Gulf, but all the while the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is rapidly and quietly consolidating a dominant presence in the area with the active support of Russia.
Beijing, as a result, is fast acquiring immense influence over related key dynamics such as the price of oil in the world market and the relevance of the petrodollar. The PRC and the Russians are capitalizing on both the growing fears of Iran and the growing mistrust of the US. Hence, the US is already the main loser of the PRC’s gambit.
The dramatic PRC success can be attributed to the confluence of two major trends:
(1) The quality and relevance of what Beijing can offer to both Iran and the Saudi-Gulf States camp; and
(2) The decision of key Arab leaders — most notably Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin ‘Abd al-’Aziz al Sa’ud (aka MBS) and his close ally, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (aka MBZ) — to downgrade their traditional close ties with the US, and reach out to Beijing to provide a substitute strategic umbrella.
Read the entire article
Beijing, as a result, is fast acquiring immense influence over related key dynamics such as the price of oil in the world market and the relevance of the petrodollar. The PRC and the Russians are capitalizing on both the growing fears of Iran and the growing mistrust of the US. Hence, the US is already the main loser of the PRC’s gambit.
The dramatic PRC success can be attributed to the confluence of two major trends:
(1) The quality and relevance of what Beijing can offer to both Iran and the Saudi-Gulf States camp; and
(2) The decision of key Arab leaders — most notably Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin ‘Abd al-’Aziz al Sa’ud (aka MBS) and his close ally, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (aka MBZ) — to downgrade their traditional close ties with the US, and reach out to Beijing to provide a substitute strategic umbrella.
Read the entire article
August 21, 2019
China Wants To Build A Grains "Superhighway" In Argentina
China has stepped away from US agriculture imports and said it would bid on a project that could create a grains superhighway in Argentina, reported Reuters.
Chinese state-owned construction company (CCCC) is readying a bid that would allow it to dredge Argentina's Parana River, the country's only river that acts as a waterway for bulk vessels that transport soybean and corn from the Pampas farm belt to the South Atlantic.
China has increased agriculture purchases from Argentina since trade tensions between Washington and Beijing erupted last year.
Representatives of CCCC and its Shanghai Dredging unit have already held meetings with Argentine government and local port officials to design a plan that would allow larger bulk carriers to navigate the Parana River to and from the Argentine farm belt, to the South Atlantic, then to China, according to Reuters' sources.
CCCC is the top Chinese firm to lead international efforts in modernizing global transport hubs and shipping lanes to secure sustainable food supplies for China.
Read the entire article
Chinese state-owned construction company (CCCC) is readying a bid that would allow it to dredge Argentina's Parana River, the country's only river that acts as a waterway for bulk vessels that transport soybean and corn from the Pampas farm belt to the South Atlantic.
China has increased agriculture purchases from Argentina since trade tensions between Washington and Beijing erupted last year.
Representatives of CCCC and its Shanghai Dredging unit have already held meetings with Argentine government and local port officials to design a plan that would allow larger bulk carriers to navigate the Parana River to and from the Argentine farm belt, to the South Atlantic, then to China, according to Reuters' sources.
CCCC is the top Chinese firm to lead international efforts in modernizing global transport hubs and shipping lanes to secure sustainable food supplies for China.
Read the entire article
August 14, 2019
China Factory Output Weakest In 17 Years, Everything Missed
With currency turmoil and social unrest, China's economic assault tonight was supposed be the great equalizer - confirming that a few trillion here or there and everything looks awesome and happy, and not a tiny bit angry (and that the Americans are not to blame for everything).
Ahead of today's data, broadly speaking, macro data globally has been weak, but in China, recent credit growth numbers slumped and steel production slowed, suggesting graver concerns. And so here it is...
Finally, for a few minutes/seconds the world spiked after China set the yuan fix slightly stronger; we are not so impressed, nor is the yuan or US equity futures...
So with inflation spiking, currency crashing, social-unrest; will the PBOC flood the nation with cash to ensure happiness at October's CCP Anniversary?
It's just that the sugar high from the injection is getting shorter...
Read the entire article
Ahead of today's data, broadly speaking, macro data globally has been weak, but in China, recent credit growth numbers slumped and steel production slowed, suggesting graver concerns. And so here it is...
Finally, for a few minutes/seconds the world spiked after China set the yuan fix slightly stronger; we are not so impressed, nor is the yuan or US equity futures...
So with inflation spiking, currency crashing, social-unrest; will the PBOC flood the nation with cash to ensure happiness at October's CCP Anniversary?
It's just that the sugar high from the injection is getting shorter...
Read the entire article
August 6, 2019
Will China Retreat Into Itself?
It’s never easy to gauge what exactly is happening in China, or why the CCP Politburo takes the decisions it does. Today, or overnight, is no exception to that. However, one thing that appears certain, but which I don’t see reflected in all the analyses, is that Beijing pushing the value of the renminbi (yuan) down below 7 to the USD in one fell swoop, is a major setback for Xi Jinping and his government.
Yes, China may have given up hope of reaching positive conclusions in its trade talks with the US. And yes, some may think, even in China itself, that devaluing the currency is a tool that can be useful in a potential currency war. But there’s another side to this coin. It’s not even about the value itself, or the change in it, it’s the heavy-handed way it’s executed.
China wants, and desperately needs too, for the yuan to be a force in global financial markets. In very simple terms this is true because if it then wants to buy something, it can simply print the money for it. But only about 1% of global trade today is executed in yuan. That is not nearly enough. It means China needs dollars and euros, all the time. And devaluing the yuan means the country needs even more of those.
You’d almost think: why would you want to do that? What are the long-term prospects for a move like this? You’re telling forex markets that the value of the yuan is not trustworthy, because if Xi or the PBOC decides in the next five minutes that it should go up or down by 10% or 20%, they can do it. The Fed and ECB also have tools to manipulate their currencies (re: interest rates), but none of that magnitude.
The crux of the dilemma probably lies in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which I’ve been saying for years is just China’s way to sell its overcapacity and overproduction abroad. Sure, there may be loftier goals, and surely in the glitzy brochures, but the fact remains that China has tried to be an economic miracle, doing in 10 years what took the US a century, and it never slowed down its growth, at least not voluntarily, even if that might have been a wise move.
Read the entire article
Yes, China may have given up hope of reaching positive conclusions in its trade talks with the US. And yes, some may think, even in China itself, that devaluing the currency is a tool that can be useful in a potential currency war. But there’s another side to this coin. It’s not even about the value itself, or the change in it, it’s the heavy-handed way it’s executed.
China wants, and desperately needs too, for the yuan to be a force in global financial markets. In very simple terms this is true because if it then wants to buy something, it can simply print the money for it. But only about 1% of global trade today is executed in yuan. That is not nearly enough. It means China needs dollars and euros, all the time. And devaluing the yuan means the country needs even more of those.
You’d almost think: why would you want to do that? What are the long-term prospects for a move like this? You’re telling forex markets that the value of the yuan is not trustworthy, because if Xi or the PBOC decides in the next five minutes that it should go up or down by 10% or 20%, they can do it. The Fed and ECB also have tools to manipulate their currencies (re: interest rates), but none of that magnitude.
The crux of the dilemma probably lies in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which I’ve been saying for years is just China’s way to sell its overcapacity and overproduction abroad. Sure, there may be loftier goals, and surely in the glitzy brochures, but the fact remains that China has tried to be an economic miracle, doing in 10 years what took the US a century, and it never slowed down its growth, at least not voluntarily, even if that might have been a wise move.
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July 31, 2019
China Manufacturing PMI Stuck In Contraction As Services Hit 2019 Lows
Despite record credit injections and endless easing, China's economic survey data goes from bad to worse.
While China Manufacturing PMI managed a de minimus gain from 49.4 to 49.7, it remains in contractionary territory for the 7th month in the last 9.
China Services PMI continued to slide, back to its lowest since 2018.
Confirming global weakness seen in Japanese and European PMIs.
In a seemingly desperate reach, Bloomberg notes that the stronger result (49.4 to 49.7) signaled some optimism is emerging in the Chinese economy in spite of lingering uncertainty over trade talks and domestic demand.
PMI data improves as “the government’s tax cuts have helped improve growth slightly,” Yao Shaohua, economist at ABCI Securities Co. in Hong Kong.
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While China Manufacturing PMI managed a de minimus gain from 49.4 to 49.7, it remains in contractionary territory for the 7th month in the last 9.
China Services PMI continued to slide, back to its lowest since 2018.
Confirming global weakness seen in Japanese and European PMIs.
In a seemingly desperate reach, Bloomberg notes that the stronger result (49.4 to 49.7) signaled some optimism is emerging in the Chinese economy in spite of lingering uncertainty over trade talks and domestic demand.
PMI data improves as “the government’s tax cuts have helped improve growth slightly,” Yao Shaohua, economist at ABCI Securities Co. in Hong Kong.
Read the entire article
July 23, 2019
Oil Will "Go Bust" If Recession Hits
Oil prices plunged last week, dragged down by fears of slowing demand, and shrinking geopolitical risk premia.
An unexpected increase in inventories underscored the downside risk to oil prices. The EIA reported a drawdown in crude stocks, but a huge 9.25 million barrel combined increase in gasoline and diesel inventories, which surprised traders. Also, gasoline demand plunged by 0.5 mb/d in the week ending on July 12, although week-to-week changes are typical and make the data a bit noisy.
Crude prices sold off on the news, falling by nearly 3 percent on Thursday.
The data release renewed fears of a slowdown in demand. But cracks in U.S. demand are larger than one week’s worth of data. “The [year-on-year] increase in demand for the year to 11 July was just 29 thousand barrels per day (kb/d), up 0.1%,” Standard Chartered wrote in a note.
“Demand will have to be strong for the rest of the year if consensus forecasts for 2019 growth are to be achieved.”
The investment bank sees U.S. oil demand only rising by 89,000 bpd this year, while the EIA expects a stronger 248,000-bpd increase. Standard Chartered says U.S. oil demand “appears consistent with a slowing economy.”
Read the entire article
An unexpected increase in inventories underscored the downside risk to oil prices. The EIA reported a drawdown in crude stocks, but a huge 9.25 million barrel combined increase in gasoline and diesel inventories, which surprised traders. Also, gasoline demand plunged by 0.5 mb/d in the week ending on July 12, although week-to-week changes are typical and make the data a bit noisy.
Crude prices sold off on the news, falling by nearly 3 percent on Thursday.
The data release renewed fears of a slowdown in demand. But cracks in U.S. demand are larger than one week’s worth of data. “The [year-on-year] increase in demand for the year to 11 July was just 29 thousand barrels per day (kb/d), up 0.1%,” Standard Chartered wrote in a note.
“Demand will have to be strong for the rest of the year if consensus forecasts for 2019 growth are to be achieved.”
The investment bank sees U.S. oil demand only rising by 89,000 bpd this year, while the EIA expects a stronger 248,000-bpd increase. Standard Chartered says U.S. oil demand “appears consistent with a slowing economy.”
Read the entire article
June 28, 2019
China's Rogue Regime
It is commonly accepted now that China is using its trade with the United States and other OECD countries to increase the size of its economy, which in turn will allow it to build its military to the point where it can attack the United States and other countries and hope to win. At its simplest, every Chinese container landed at the Port of Los Angeles contributes to a U.S. combat death at some point in time of China’s choosing. Every item of injection-moulded plastic from China picked off the toy shelves at Walmart contributes to a future U.S. combat death.
Some of our leaders seem to comprehend this but speak in a kind of code. Thus,Vice President Mike Pence told the West Point graduating class last month, “You will lead soldiers in combat. It will happen.” General James Mattis has made similar remarks. How can they be so certain that the size of the U.S. military won’t be enough to discourage a belligerent from disturbing the peace of the world?
Because that belligerent country is China and their intentions are as plain as day. Would a peaceful country continually bait Japan as China does? This graph from the Japanese Foreign Ministry shows Chinese incursions into Japanese waters.
The sudden leap in incidents in 2012 was due to the rise of Xi Jinping as Supreme Leader, later uprated to Core Leader. All these incursions by Chinese fishing vessels are funded by the Chinese Government; it seems the budget is for 12 per month. This is the steady heartbeat of Chinese hate and enmity while they wait for the moment when they can attack.
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Some of our leaders seem to comprehend this but speak in a kind of code. Thus,Vice President Mike Pence told the West Point graduating class last month, “You will lead soldiers in combat. It will happen.” General James Mattis has made similar remarks. How can they be so certain that the size of the U.S. military won’t be enough to discourage a belligerent from disturbing the peace of the world?
Because that belligerent country is China and their intentions are as plain as day. Would a peaceful country continually bait Japan as China does? This graph from the Japanese Foreign Ministry shows Chinese incursions into Japanese waters.
The sudden leap in incidents in 2012 was due to the rise of Xi Jinping as Supreme Leader, later uprated to Core Leader. All these incursions by Chinese fishing vessels are funded by the Chinese Government; it seems the budget is for 12 per month. This is the steady heartbeat of Chinese hate and enmity while they wait for the moment when they can attack.
Read the entire article
June 27, 2019
Stunning Exposé Offers New Details About China's Infiltration Of 8 Tech Giants
Over the past year, Western media organizations have published a non-stop stream of reports about "Operation Cloudhopper": The Chinese government's clandestine program to spy on and siphon economic secrets from some of the world's largest tech companies.
We have shared some details of the program before: China's Ministry of State Security has worked with a shadowy group of hackers called 'Advanced Persistent Threat' 10 to infiltrate American and European enterprise tech firms using a very consistent MO: Hackers would infiltrate the cloud computing networks of 'managed service providers', then 'hop' from network to network', gaining entree to the networks of these firms' clients. Back in December, the US named some of the hackers suspected of working with APT10, and was backed up by Germany, New Zealand, Canada, Britain, Australia and other allies all issued statements.
Notably, the Chinese cyberespionage campaign continued even after Beijing and the Obama Administration agreed to a pact to cease all cyberespionage activities.
But as devastating as these attacks have been, the details have been kept under wraps, as corporate victims have pushed for their privacy to be protected. But for the first time since the US indicted the two suspected APT members, a sweeping Reuters investigation has laid out details of attacks, many of which have been previously reported, but not in quite as much depth.
Read the entire article
We have shared some details of the program before: China's Ministry of State Security has worked with a shadowy group of hackers called 'Advanced Persistent Threat' 10 to infiltrate American and European enterprise tech firms using a very consistent MO: Hackers would infiltrate the cloud computing networks of 'managed service providers', then 'hop' from network to network', gaining entree to the networks of these firms' clients. Back in December, the US named some of the hackers suspected of working with APT10, and was backed up by Germany, New Zealand, Canada, Britain, Australia and other allies all issued statements.
Notably, the Chinese cyberespionage campaign continued even after Beijing and the Obama Administration agreed to a pact to cease all cyberespionage activities.
But as devastating as these attacks have been, the details have been kept under wraps, as corporate victims have pushed for their privacy to be protected. But for the first time since the US indicted the two suspected APT members, a sweeping Reuters investigation has laid out details of attacks, many of which have been previously reported, but not in quite as much depth.
Read the entire article
June 17, 2019
Wilbur Ross Warns Not To Expect A US-China Deal At G-20 Meeting
To anyone expecting a major breakthrough at the June 28-29 Osaka G-20 meeting, Wilbur Ross has a simple message: "Don't."
Speaking to the WSJ, US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross sharply played down prospects of a "major" trade deal if President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping meet at the Group of 20 summit in Japan later this month (which they very well may not as Xi has yet to commit to a meeting which would show him at a power disadvantage to Trump), but nonetheless he said he believes the two sides will ultimately get back to negotiations.
"I think the most that will come out of the G-20 might be an agreement to actively resume talks,” Ross said in a phone interview Sunday. “At the presidential level they’re not going to talk about the details of how do you enforce a trade agreement."
So what is the best case scenario? Well: a return to square one, such diplomatic relations are now well in negative territory: “The most that might come is new ground rules for discussion and some sort of schedule for when detailed technical talks might resume,” said Mr. Ross.
Read the entire article
Speaking to the WSJ, US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross sharply played down prospects of a "major" trade deal if President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping meet at the Group of 20 summit in Japan later this month (which they very well may not as Xi has yet to commit to a meeting which would show him at a power disadvantage to Trump), but nonetheless he said he believes the two sides will ultimately get back to negotiations.
"I think the most that will come out of the G-20 might be an agreement to actively resume talks,” Ross said in a phone interview Sunday. “At the presidential level they’re not going to talk about the details of how do you enforce a trade agreement."
So what is the best case scenario? Well: a return to square one, such diplomatic relations are now well in negative territory: “The most that might come is new ground rules for discussion and some sort of schedule for when detailed technical talks might resume,” said Mr. Ross.
Read the entire article
June 14, 2019
Risk on, risk off.
One day after traders were greeted by a sea of green - on potential world war news - we are back to the sea of red as global stocks struggled and safe haven bets were back in play on Friday with German bond yields plumbing record lows after the latest dismal Chinese data dump sparked fears about the health of the global economy and concerns of a new U.S.-Iran confrontation intensified (which, by the way, was somehow bullish for risk yesterday).
Beijing May activity reported overnight was very weak and painted a fairly gloomy picture of the world’s second largest economy as the trade war with the United States starts to bite. May industrial output growth slowed to a more than 17-year low, the weakest since since 2002, and well below expectations, while fixed-asset investment also fell short of forecasts. Retail sales growth accelerated and surprised to the upside however.
Industrial Output for May: 5.0%, est. +5.4% (range +5.1% to +6.4%, 35 economists), down from +5.4% last month.
May retail sales +8.6% y/y; est. +8.1% April +7.2%
Jan.-May fixed-asset investment excluding rural households +5.6% y/y; est. +6.1% (range +5.2% to +6.5%, 34 economists). Jan.-April +6.1%
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One day after traders were greeted by a sea of green - on potential world war news - we are back to the sea of red as global stocks struggled and safe haven bets were back in play on Friday with German bond yields plumbing record lows after the latest dismal Chinese data dump sparked fears about the health of the global economy and concerns of a new U.S.-Iran confrontation intensified (which, by the way, was somehow bullish for risk yesterday).
Beijing May activity reported overnight was very weak and painted a fairly gloomy picture of the world’s second largest economy as the trade war with the United States starts to bite. May industrial output growth slowed to a more than 17-year low, the weakest since since 2002, and well below expectations, while fixed-asset investment also fell short of forecasts. Retail sales growth accelerated and surprised to the upside however.
Industrial Output for May: 5.0%, est. +5.4% (range +5.1% to +6.4%, 35 economists), down from +5.4% last month.
May retail sales +8.6% y/y; est. +8.1% April +7.2%
Jan.-May fixed-asset investment excluding rural households +5.6% y/y; est. +6.1% (range +5.2% to +6.5%, 34 economists). Jan.-April +6.1%
Read the entire article
May 28, 2019
American Soil Is Being Globalized: Nearly 30 Million Acres Of U.S. Farmland Is Now Owned By Foreigners
All across America, U.S. farmland is being gobbled up by foreign interests. So when we refer to “the heartland of America”, the truth is that vast stretches of that “heartland” is now owned by foreigners, and most Americans have no idea that this is happening. These days, a lot of people are warning about the “globalization” of the world economy, but in reality our own soil is rapidly being “globalized”. When farms are locally owned, the revenue that those farms take in tends to stay in local communities. But with foreign-owned farms there is no guarantee that will happen. And while there is plenty of food to go around this is not a major concern, but what happens when a food crisis erupts and these foreign-owned farms just keep sending their produce out of the country? There are some very serious national security concerns here, and they really aren’t being addressed. Instead, the amount of farmland owned by foreigners just continues to increase with each passing year.
Prior to seeing the headline to this article, how much U.S. farmland would you have guessed that foreigners now own?
Personally, I had no idea that foreigners now own nearly 30 million acres. The following comes from NPR…
Read the entire article
Prior to seeing the headline to this article, how much U.S. farmland would you have guessed that foreigners now own?
Personally, I had no idea that foreigners now own nearly 30 million acres. The following comes from NPR…
Read the entire article
May 23, 2019
World Trade War I: US Asks South Korea To Join Anti-Huawei Campaign
The bilateral trade war between the US and China is gradually becoming a global trade war of global geopolitical and commercial dominance between the US and Chinese spheres of influence.
Shortly after the two largest mobile phone companies in the UK decided against launching Huawei-built 5G phones this morning, and roughly around the time a bevy of Japanese tech and telecom companies including ARM Holdings, Panasonic and SoftBank all imposed a boycott on supplying Huawei with mission critical components joining Australia, and New Zealand as major US allies to end commercial relations with Huawei following the US decision to crack down on the Chinese telecom giant (see "Huawei Feels U.S. Squeeze in U.K., Japan as Partners Curb Business") the White House is now pressuring another critical Chinese trading partner - South Korea - to cease ties with Huawei.
According to the Chosun Ilbo newspaper, the US recently asked South Korean government to support and join its anti-Huawei campaign.
Forcing Seoul to pick sides in a fight it would rather stay out of - especially since both sides still bear a distinct grudge from the Korean war - the US delivered a message several times to S. Korea’s Foreign Ministry that "using Huawei products may cause security problems" and as a result, the US requested S. Korea’s "active" support of US policy toward China as South Korea is seen as an American ally.
Read the entire article
Shortly after the two largest mobile phone companies in the UK decided against launching Huawei-built 5G phones this morning, and roughly around the time a bevy of Japanese tech and telecom companies including ARM Holdings, Panasonic and SoftBank all imposed a boycott on supplying Huawei with mission critical components joining Australia, and New Zealand as major US allies to end commercial relations with Huawei following the US decision to crack down on the Chinese telecom giant (see "Huawei Feels U.S. Squeeze in U.K., Japan as Partners Curb Business") the White House is now pressuring another critical Chinese trading partner - South Korea - to cease ties with Huawei.
According to the Chosun Ilbo newspaper, the US recently asked South Korean government to support and join its anti-Huawei campaign.
Forcing Seoul to pick sides in a fight it would rather stay out of - especially since both sides still bear a distinct grudge from the Korean war - the US delivered a message several times to S. Korea’s Foreign Ministry that "using Huawei products may cause security problems" and as a result, the US requested S. Korea’s "active" support of US policy toward China as South Korea is seen as an American ally.
Read the entire article
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