Markets are closed in Beijing, the workday is over, and there no official reports in local media of an actual trade deal, that is because, as we explained on Thursday night, the language of the deal will never be made public and there would be no signing event between President Trump and President Xi. One may ask if there is even a "deal"?
As the WSJ writes this morning, China indicated that a near-term trade agreement with the U.S. has yet to be completed despite President Trump’s signoff, highlighting the unpredictability of a negotiation process that has rattled global markets and businesses.
Trump on Thursday approved a so-called phase-one trade pact that will scale back existing tariffs on Chinese imports and eliminate new levies scheduled to take effect on Sunday, in exchange for a written pledge from Beijing to buy tens of billions of dollars worth of U.S. farm products, among other concessions.
While Mr. Trump was “upbeat and enthusiastic about this breakthrough,” in the words of Michael Pillsbury, an adviser to the president during the trade talks, the mood in Beijing has been decidedly more sober.
As noted above, none of China’s state-owned media outlets or economic agencies involved in the trade negotiations made any public statement on Friday about the deal which according to Trump was finalized.
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Showing posts with label Tariffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tariffs. Show all posts
September 2, 2019
US Slaps New Tariffs On China; One Minute Later China Retaliates
The biggest reason for last week's torrid stock market rally was rekindled "optimism" that the escalating trade war between the US and China may be on the verge of another ceasefire following phone conversations, fake as they may have been, between the US and Chinese side. This translated into speculation that a new round of tariffs increases slated for this weekend may not take place or be delayed.
However, that did not happen, and with no trade deal in sight, at 12:00am on Sunday, the Trump administration slapped tariffs on $112 billion in Chinese imports, the latest escalation in a trade war that’s ground the global economy to a halt, sent Germany into a recession, and given the market an alibi to keep rising because, wait for it, "a trade deal is imminent."
Only, it isn't, and 1 minute later, at 12:01am EDT, China retaliated with higher tariffs being rolled out in stages on a total of about $75 billion of U.S. goods. The target list strikes at the heart of Trump’s political support - factories and farms across the Midwest and South at a time when the U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down.
The 15% U.S. duty hit consumer goods ranging from footwear and apparel to home textiles and certain technology products like the Apple Watch. A separate batch of about $160 billion in Chinese goods - including laptops and cellphones - will be hit with 15% tariffs on Dec. 15. China, meanwhile, began applying tariffs of 5 to 10% on U.S. goods ranging from frozen sweet corn and pork liver to bicycle tires on Sunday.
The slated 15% U.S. tariffs on approximately $112 billion in Chinese goods may affect consumer prices for products ranging from shoes to sporting goods, the AP noted, and may mark a turning point in how the ongoing trade war directly affects consumers. Nearly 90% of clothing and textiles the U.S. buys from China will also be subjected to tariffs.
Read the entire article
However, that did not happen, and with no trade deal in sight, at 12:00am on Sunday, the Trump administration slapped tariffs on $112 billion in Chinese imports, the latest escalation in a trade war that’s ground the global economy to a halt, sent Germany into a recession, and given the market an alibi to keep rising because, wait for it, "a trade deal is imminent."
Only, it isn't, and 1 minute later, at 12:01am EDT, China retaliated with higher tariffs being rolled out in stages on a total of about $75 billion of U.S. goods. The target list strikes at the heart of Trump’s political support - factories and farms across the Midwest and South at a time when the U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down.
The 15% U.S. duty hit consumer goods ranging from footwear and apparel to home textiles and certain technology products like the Apple Watch. A separate batch of about $160 billion in Chinese goods - including laptops and cellphones - will be hit with 15% tariffs on Dec. 15. China, meanwhile, began applying tariffs of 5 to 10% on U.S. goods ranging from frozen sweet corn and pork liver to bicycle tires on Sunday.
The slated 15% U.S. tariffs on approximately $112 billion in Chinese goods may affect consumer prices for products ranging from shoes to sporting goods, the AP noted, and may mark a turning point in how the ongoing trade war directly affects consumers. Nearly 90% of clothing and textiles the U.S. buys from China will also be subjected to tariffs.
Read the entire article
August 2, 2019
Mission Accomplished: Rate Cut Odds Surge After Tariff Announcement, Just As Trump Wanted
Earlier today, we wrote a post titled "What Would It Take For The Fed To Not Cut Again?", with Goldman providing a stylized answer, although in retrospect, the post should have been titled "What Would It Take For The Fed To Cut Again", as that is what the market was far more concerned about after yesterday's hawkish Powell press conference.
In any case, Goldman hinted at the one specific catalyst that could force the Fed to cut more: "We also see risks in the other direction, especially on a significant escalation of tariffs against China."
To this, we said that "if an acceleration in the trade war with China is what the Fed will need to cut more, it's pretty clear what that means for the chances of any trade deal between Washington and Beijing, since even Trump now understands that if he keeps escalating trade war with China, Powell will have no choice but to eventually cut to 0% (and lower)."
Just a few hours later, we were proven right in suggesting that an escalation in the trade war is inevitable and imminent when Trump tweeted that he would hike tariffs on $300BN in Chinese imports to 10% starting September 1, ending the tentative ceasefire with Beijing with a bang, and sending risk prices sharply lower.
Read the entire article
In any case, Goldman hinted at the one specific catalyst that could force the Fed to cut more: "We also see risks in the other direction, especially on a significant escalation of tariffs against China."
To this, we said that "if an acceleration in the trade war with China is what the Fed will need to cut more, it's pretty clear what that means for the chances of any trade deal between Washington and Beijing, since even Trump now understands that if he keeps escalating trade war with China, Powell will have no choice but to eventually cut to 0% (and lower)."
Just a few hours later, we were proven right in suggesting that an escalation in the trade war is inevitable and imminent when Trump tweeted that he would hike tariffs on $300BN in Chinese imports to 10% starting September 1, ending the tentative ceasefire with Beijing with a bang, and sending risk prices sharply lower.
Read the entire article
June 12, 2019
Nintendo Reportedly Moved Switch Production Out Of China Over Trump's Tariff Threats
Offering yet another example of the trade war will inevitably drive more companies to move manufacturing out of mainland China and to Taiwan or Vietnam instead, Nintendo is shifting production of one of its most popular gaming consoles to limit the impact of US tariffs.
Per WSJ, Nintendo is moving some of its production of its Switch hand-held console to Southeast Asia from China to limit the impact of US tariffs on Chinese-made electronics. This comes as the company plans to update the popular Switch console with two new models later this year.
Since videogame console makers tend to sell their devices at thin margins, in the hopes of earning higher profits on sales of more lucrative games, the move suggests Nintendo is trying to avoid selling its Switch handheld consoles at a loss. Over the next two holiday seasons, Nintendo is facing stiff competition from Microsoft, with both companies offering competing devices.
The fact that Nintendo's decision comes just a day after a senior Foxconn executive said Apple's biggest manufacturing partner had the capacity to move its production outside of China presents an interesting and important message about how quickly global supply chains will change as the trade spat with China intensifies, said Bill Blain of Mint Partners.
Read the entire article
Per WSJ, Nintendo is moving some of its production of its Switch hand-held console to Southeast Asia from China to limit the impact of US tariffs on Chinese-made electronics. This comes as the company plans to update the popular Switch console with two new models later this year.
Since videogame console makers tend to sell their devices at thin margins, in the hopes of earning higher profits on sales of more lucrative games, the move suggests Nintendo is trying to avoid selling its Switch handheld consoles at a loss. Over the next two holiday seasons, Nintendo is facing stiff competition from Microsoft, with both companies offering competing devices.
The fact that Nintendo's decision comes just a day after a senior Foxconn executive said Apple's biggest manufacturing partner had the capacity to move its production outside of China presents an interesting and important message about how quickly global supply chains will change as the trade spat with China intensifies, said Bill Blain of Mint Partners.
Read the entire article
June 10, 2019
Chinese Exporters Dodge US Tariffs With Fake 'Made In Vietnam' Tags
Chinese exporters who are hoping to evade tariffs as high as 25% on some of their goods are hoping to capitalize on the explosion of exports from Vietnam to the US - and not by simply and legally routing their products through Vietnam as a legal transshipment point, but by masking their true origins, provoking fears that the US might seek to punish the Vietnamese for failing to crack down on this type of fraud.
On Sunday, Vietnam released a statement pledging to increase penalties on trade-related fraud. It was one of the first times an Asian government has ever alleged such misbehavior, and comes after Vietnamese authorities found dozens of fake product origin certificates and illegal transfers presumably by Chinese companies trying to sidestep US tariffs on everything from agriculture to textiles, according to Bloomberg.
The crackdown comes as Vietnam has emerged as one of the fastest growing sources of American imports.
One member of the Vietnamese national assembly's economic committee said the government is worried it could provoke the wrath of the US if it doesn't crack down on the flow of mislabeled Chinese products. The sheer magnitude of the jump in Vietnamese exports has prompted some to question how much of this could possibly be due to legitimate commerce.
Read the entire article
On Sunday, Vietnam released a statement pledging to increase penalties on trade-related fraud. It was one of the first times an Asian government has ever alleged such misbehavior, and comes after Vietnamese authorities found dozens of fake product origin certificates and illegal transfers presumably by Chinese companies trying to sidestep US tariffs on everything from agriculture to textiles, according to Bloomberg.
The crackdown comes as Vietnam has emerged as one of the fastest growing sources of American imports.
One member of the Vietnamese national assembly's economic committee said the government is worried it could provoke the wrath of the US if it doesn't crack down on the flow of mislabeled Chinese products. The sheer magnitude of the jump in Vietnamese exports has prompted some to question how much of this could possibly be due to legitimate commerce.
Read the entire article
May 31, 2019
"This Is A Black Swan Event": Markets Turmoil As Trump Unleashes Tariffs On Mexico "Until Illegal Immigration Stops"
Amid negotations and escalations in the process of moving USMCA through Congress, Trump has decided to go after one on America's closest trade partners: "On June 10th, the United States will impose a 5% Tariff on all goods coming into our Country from Mexico, until such time as illegal migrants coming through Mexico, and into our Country, STOP. The Tariff will gradually increase until the Illegal Immigration problem is remedied, at which time the Tariffs will be removed. Details from the White House to follow."
The White House warning that it will hike Mexico tariffs to 25% by October 1, if the border crisis persists, as Trump is activating a scorched earth approach whereby he will "punish" any offshore nation that he believes is transgressing, by imposing tariffs.
Meanwhile, moments after Trump's shock tweet, the Mexican deputy foreign minister Seade said that if President's threat to impose tariffs is carried out, "it would be disastrous", and Mexico would "respond strongly", adding that "we will not remain with out arms folded" before the tariff deadline "to see if it is serious."
Read the entire article
The White House warning that it will hike Mexico tariffs to 25% by October 1, if the border crisis persists, as Trump is activating a scorched earth approach whereby he will "punish" any offshore nation that he believes is transgressing, by imposing tariffs.
Meanwhile, moments after Trump's shock tweet, the Mexican deputy foreign minister Seade said that if President's threat to impose tariffs is carried out, "it would be disastrous", and Mexico would "respond strongly", adding that "we will not remain with out arms folded" before the tariff deadline "to see if it is serious."
Read the entire article
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