Here’s a new indicator for you: It seems that the difference between the price of oil here and abroad is a measure of tightness in the market, with a rising spread indicating higher prices in the future, with all the inflationary pressures that that implies. From today’s Wall Street Journal:
Trans-Atlantic Oil-Price Spread Soars as Supply Glut Disappears
U.S. oil prices are lagging behind global oil prices climbing toward $80 a barrel, the latest sign of a market that has gone from glutted to exceptionally tight in the past year.
U.S. oil futures are trailing Brent, the global benchmark, by more than $7 a barrel, settling at $71.28 a barrel on Friday. The two oil benchmarks are further apart than they have been since 2015, before U.S. crude could be freely exported.
The divergence is a sign of how stretched global oil supplies have become even as U.S. output has marched higher, overtaking Saudi Arabia and rivaling Russia. That has contributed to soaring U.S. exports, which have hit a record of nearly 2.6 million barrels a day as users clamor.
“The market is screaming right now, ‘We need every barrel we can get,’ ” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at the Price Futures Group.
Both benchmarks have been on a tear lately. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies have been holding oil off the market for more than a year, and demand has surged as the global economy roared to life. Unexpected disruptions, like plunging oil output from Venezuela, have tightened supplies even further. A glut of oil that held prices down for years is essentially gone.
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