When an economy turns from expansion to contraction there is an order of events. The first signs are an unexpected increase in inventories of unsold goods, both accompanied with and followed by business surveys indicating a general softening in demand. For monetarists, this is often confirmed by an inverting yield curve, which tells them that at the margin the short-term rates set by the central bank are becoming too high for business conditions.
That was the position for the US 10-year bond less the 2-year bond very briefly at the end of August, since when this measure, which is often taken to predict recessions, has turned mildly positive again. A generally negative sentiment, fueled mainly by the escalating tariff war between America and China, had earlier alerted investors to an international trade slowdown, expected to undermine the American economy in due course along with all the others. It stands to reason that backward-looking statistics have yet to reflect the global slowdown on the US economy, which is still buoyed up by consumer credit. The German economy, which is driven by production rather than consumption is perhaps a better guide and is already in recession.
After an initial hit, a small recovery in investor sentiment is understandable, with the negative outlook perhaps having got ahead of itself. But we must look beyond that. History shows the combination of a peak in the credit cycle and tariffs can be economically lethal. A brief return to a positive yield curve achieves little more than a sucker rally. It may be enough to put further monetary expansion on pause. But when that is over, and jobs begin to be threatened, there can be no doubt that central banks will ramp up the printing presses.
So reliant have markets become on monetary expansion that the default assumption is that an economy will always be rescued from recession by an easing of monetary policy, and furthermore that monetary inflation will prevent it from being any more than mild and short. We see this in the performance of stock market indices, which reflect perpetual optimism.
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DAILY BUSINESS REPORT - Financial Updates, International Markets and Business News
Showing posts with label Recession. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Recession. Show all posts
October 22, 2019
October 2, 2019
Japan Hikes National Sales Tax Despite Recession Fears
Japan has increased its national sales tax to 10% from 8% on Tuesday, a significant policy change that could tilt the world's third-largest economy into recession by depressing consumer sentiment, reported Market Watch.
The last two times policymakers increased the sales tax, 2-point rise to 5% in 1997 and another to 8% in 2014, an economic contraction shortly followed.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe twice delayed the tax hike in recent years.
Abe has indicated the tax is now unavoidable given the demographic challenges in the aging country. He said the tax would help pay down the enormous national debt, and position the country towards more financial responsibility in balancing the budget by 2025. But taxing the consumer as the economy is deteriorating could be a recipe for economic disaster in 2020.
Japan's GDP expanded at an annual pace of 1.8% over the summer. The economy is quickly slowing into fall, thanks to the trade war between the US and China. Global trade volumes are plummeting through 2H19, has taken a toll on Japan's exports. The tax will likely sideline the consumer in 2020, force them into a savings pattern that could tilt the economy into a recession next year, similar to the tax increase in 2014.
Read the entire article
The last two times policymakers increased the sales tax, 2-point rise to 5% in 1997 and another to 8% in 2014, an economic contraction shortly followed.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe twice delayed the tax hike in recent years.
Abe has indicated the tax is now unavoidable given the demographic challenges in the aging country. He said the tax would help pay down the enormous national debt, and position the country towards more financial responsibility in balancing the budget by 2025. But taxing the consumer as the economy is deteriorating could be a recipe for economic disaster in 2020.
Japan's GDP expanded at an annual pace of 1.8% over the summer. The economy is quickly slowing into fall, thanks to the trade war between the US and China. Global trade volumes are plummeting through 2H19, has taken a toll on Japan's exports. The tax will likely sideline the consumer in 2020, force them into a savings pattern that could tilt the economy into a recession next year, similar to the tax increase in 2014.
Read the entire article
September 11, 2019
60 Percent Of Americans Believe A Recession Is Coming – But Consumers Continue To Pile Up Debt At A Frightening Pace
We haven’t seen survey results like this since just before the last recession. Right now, 60 percent of Americans believe that a recession is “very or somewhat likely in the next year”, and the reason why that figure is so high is because there is already a tremendous amount of evidence that the economy is slowing down all around us. As I have been documenting repeatedly, U.S. economic performance has not been this dismal since 2008 and 2009, and the slowdown seems to be gaining pace as we move toward the end of 2019. So it really shouldn’t be a surprise that a solid majority of the country thinks that the next recession will officially begin very soon. The following comes from ABC News…
Ratings of the U.S. economy overall, 56% positive, are down from 65% last fall in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. Most ominously, 60% see a recession as very or somewhat likely in the next year. That’s within sight of the 69% who said so in November 2007, in advance of the Great Recession.
But at the same time, U.S. consumers continue to pile up more debt at a frightening pace.
According to NBC News, total revolving credit shot up at an 11.25 annual pace during the month of July…
Read the entire article
Ratings of the U.S. economy overall, 56% positive, are down from 65% last fall in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. Most ominously, 60% see a recession as very or somewhat likely in the next year. That’s within sight of the 69% who said so in November 2007, in advance of the Great Recession.
But at the same time, U.S. consumers continue to pile up more debt at a frightening pace.
According to NBC News, total revolving credit shot up at an 11.25 annual pace during the month of July…
Read the entire article
July 25, 2019
An “Earnings Recession” Is Here – Big Companies All Over America Are Reporting Disastrous Financial Results
If the U.S. economy really was “booming”, then corporate earnings would be rising. But that isn’t happening. In fact, we haven’t seen corporate earnings fall like this since the last recession. They fell during the first quarter of this year, and based on the results we have so far, it appears that corporate earnings will be down substantially once again in the second quarter. When corporate earnings drop for two quarters in a row, that is officially considered to be an “earnings recession”, and that normally occurs just before the overall economy plunges into recession territory. As things get tighter for our corporate giants, we should expect a lot more layoffs in the months ahead, and the unemployment rate should rise quite briskly. In other words, it looks like our economic problems are about to accelerate substantially.
This week, some of the largest companies in the entire country reported results for the second quarter, and we witnessed disappointment after disappointment.
And other economic numbers continue to tell us the exact same thing. For example, we just got the worst U.S. manufacturing PMI number in 118 months. That is absolutely terrible news, but Europe’s manufacturing sector is doing even worse.
Manufacturing activity is slowing down all over the globe, and a big reason for that is because global trade is shrinking at the fastest pace that we have seen since the last financial crisis.
Meanwhile, we just learned that existing home sales in the United States have now fallen on a year over year basis for sixteen months in a row.
Read the entire article
This week, some of the largest companies in the entire country reported results for the second quarter, and we witnessed disappointment after disappointment.
And other economic numbers continue to tell us the exact same thing. For example, we just got the worst U.S. manufacturing PMI number in 118 months. That is absolutely terrible news, but Europe’s manufacturing sector is doing even worse.
Manufacturing activity is slowing down all over the globe, and a big reason for that is because global trade is shrinking at the fastest pace that we have seen since the last financial crisis.
Meanwhile, we just learned that existing home sales in the United States have now fallen on a year over year basis for sixteen months in a row.
Read the entire article
June 18, 2019
Evidence That The U.S. Economy Could Be Plunging Into A Very Deep Recession Is Rapidly Mounting
Not since 2008 have we seen so much bad economic data come rolling in all at the same time. Even without a war with Iran, which by the way is looking increasingly likely with each passing day, it definitely appears that the U.S. economy is steamrolling toward recession territory. The employment numbers for last month were abysmal, global trade has collapsed to the lowest level that we have seen since the last recession, and manufacturing numbers just keep getting worse and worse. In fact, the New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index just suffered the worst one month decline in history…
The New York Fed’s Empire State business conditions index took a sharp turn for the worse in June, falling into negative territory for the first time in more than two years.
The Empire State manufacturing index plummeted 26.4 points to negative 8.6 in June, the New York Fed said Monday. That’s a record decline. Economists had expected a reading of positive 10, according to a survey by Econoday.
Read the entire article
The New York Fed’s Empire State business conditions index took a sharp turn for the worse in June, falling into negative territory for the first time in more than two years.
The Empire State manufacturing index plummeted 26.4 points to negative 8.6 in June, the New York Fed said Monday. That’s a record decline. Economists had expected a reading of positive 10, according to a survey by Econoday.
Read the entire article
November 5, 2018
Mortgage Bonds Suffer Worst Month In 2 Years As 'Marginal Buyer' Fed Pulls Out
Mortgage bond investors are about to become reacquainted with 'moral hazard' and its inevitable consequences.
As the Federal Reserve continues to pull out of US Treasury's and mortgage bonds (the Fed entered its "peak" monthly unwind phase in Q4, where it will allow up to $30 billion and $20 billion in MBS to roll off and on Oct. 31 its balance sheet declined by more than $33 billion, the largest one-week drop since the start of QE), holders of housing bonds who had grown accustomed to steady returns in a rigged market endured their biggest shellacking in 2 years, as Bloomberg pointed out in a story published Friday.
And while at least one prominent bond investor pointed out that Bloomberg's warnings about a "bloodbath" in MBS may have been exaggerated...
...the story's central premise that the retreat of the bond market's 'marginal buyer' is creating headaches for complacent bond bulls is certainly valid, as we've said before. It only takes a quick glance at the 10-year-yield vs. the Fed's balance sheet expansion/unwind to spot the dangers that could lie ahead.
Now, as the Fed-generated tidal wave of liquidity slows to a trickle and the central bank looks to unwind some $1.7 trillion in MBS holdings, "savvy" bond bulls are stuck asking themselves: who the hell is going to step in and stop the bleeding once liquidity dries up further and mortgage bonds continue to fall?
The answer isn't immediately clear.
Read the entire article
As the Federal Reserve continues to pull out of US Treasury's and mortgage bonds (the Fed entered its "peak" monthly unwind phase in Q4, where it will allow up to $30 billion and $20 billion in MBS to roll off and on Oct. 31 its balance sheet declined by more than $33 billion, the largest one-week drop since the start of QE), holders of housing bonds who had grown accustomed to steady returns in a rigged market endured their biggest shellacking in 2 years, as Bloomberg pointed out in a story published Friday.
And while at least one prominent bond investor pointed out that Bloomberg's warnings about a "bloodbath" in MBS may have been exaggerated...
...the story's central premise that the retreat of the bond market's 'marginal buyer' is creating headaches for complacent bond bulls is certainly valid, as we've said before. It only takes a quick glance at the 10-year-yield vs. the Fed's balance sheet expansion/unwind to spot the dangers that could lie ahead.
Now, as the Fed-generated tidal wave of liquidity slows to a trickle and the central bank looks to unwind some $1.7 trillion in MBS holdings, "savvy" bond bulls are stuck asking themselves: who the hell is going to step in and stop the bleeding once liquidity dries up further and mortgage bonds continue to fall?
The answer isn't immediately clear.
Read the entire article
September 10, 2018
The New Normal In Europe: Increasing Population, Decreasing GDP
Leading European politicians and economists argue that the influx of immigrants is an economic necessity.
Naturalization of foreigners implemented for the purpose of executing a re-population program (resembling the Sinicization of Tibet) has become a national policy in most European countries. Replacing the dying European population with workers from Africa and the Middle East is supposed not only to save national economies and support the pension systems but also to boost economic growth.
Basic economic indicators, however, show that the opposite is true.
A year ago The Economist wrote that migration is beneficial to the global economy.
The Gefira team has shown that economic immigrants are more frequently beneficiaries of social benefits, and are less professionally active than non-native Europeans.
Our analysis is also validated by the scientists from the University of Basel. The result is that indigenous Europeans have to provide for immigrants.
Read the entire article
Naturalization of foreigners implemented for the purpose of executing a re-population program (resembling the Sinicization of Tibet) has become a national policy in most European countries. Replacing the dying European population with workers from Africa and the Middle East is supposed not only to save national economies and support the pension systems but also to boost economic growth.
Basic economic indicators, however, show that the opposite is true.
A year ago The Economist wrote that migration is beneficial to the global economy.
The Gefira team has shown that economic immigrants are more frequently beneficiaries of social benefits, and are less professionally active than non-native Europeans.
Our analysis is also validated by the scientists from the University of Basel. The result is that indigenous Europeans have to provide for immigrants.
Read the entire article
August 15, 2018
This Political Event Will Be Unlike Anything We've Seen In 50 Years
Do you ever feel—despite the supposed economic "recovery" of recent years—that something in America is still not quite right?
If so, you are not alone.
After all, how can things be "OK" when nearly half the men ages 18-34 now live with their parents—the highest level since the Great Depression?
How can it be "normal" when in one of America's richest cities (Seattle) there are now 400 unauthorized homeless camps under bridges and along freeway medians?
How can it be a "recovery" when 78% of the U.S. population now lives paycheck to paycheck, with essentially zero savings?
How can you explain things like the dramatic rise of the militant left-wing group ‘Antifa'... the resurgence of White Supremacists... and the booming popularity of the Democratic Socialists—they've doubled membership in recent months.
Sure, some people—CEOs, tech entrepreneurs, and other members of the "1%"—are doing great. There's never been a better time for wealthy Americans. But the truth is, for most people, the situation is getting much, much worse.
Today I want to share a few facts our politicians are afraid to tell you—including the secret reason why working class Americans have gotten dramatically poorer over the past 40 years.
I've never seen this information published anywhere else. It's a secret that explains why the rich are really getting so much richer—while everyone else is falling behind.
Once you understand this secret, you'll see why, for millions of Americans, a crisis is coming.
Read the entire article
If so, you are not alone.
After all, how can things be "OK" when nearly half the men ages 18-34 now live with their parents—the highest level since the Great Depression?
How can it be "normal" when in one of America's richest cities (Seattle) there are now 400 unauthorized homeless camps under bridges and along freeway medians?
How can it be a "recovery" when 78% of the U.S. population now lives paycheck to paycheck, with essentially zero savings?
How can you explain things like the dramatic rise of the militant left-wing group ‘Antifa'... the resurgence of White Supremacists... and the booming popularity of the Democratic Socialists—they've doubled membership in recent months.
Sure, some people—CEOs, tech entrepreneurs, and other members of the "1%"—are doing great. There's never been a better time for wealthy Americans. But the truth is, for most people, the situation is getting much, much worse.
Today I want to share a few facts our politicians are afraid to tell you—including the secret reason why working class Americans have gotten dramatically poorer over the past 40 years.
I've never seen this information published anywhere else. It's a secret that explains why the rich are really getting so much richer—while everyone else is falling behind.
Once you understand this secret, you'll see why, for millions of Americans, a crisis is coming.
Read the entire article
October 11, 2017
National Rents Stall For 4th Month In A Row As Multi-Family Supply Glut Takes Its Toll
After a steady march higher in the wake of the 'great recession' nearly a decade ago, a note today from Rent Cafe reveals that average rents in the United States have now stalled for 4 months in row with September's national average coming in at $1,354 per month, which is virtually flat from the $1,350 average reached in the summer.
National rents have barely moved through the entire peak rental season and into September, marking the longest period of stagnation in recent history — 4 consecutive months. Coming in at $1,354 for the month of September, the average rent is only 2.2 percent higher than this time last year. This is the slowest annual growth rate we’ve seen in more than six years — having reached a high point of 5.5%-5.6% peak growth around two years ago — a pretty good indicator that the rental market has entered calmer waters.
Still, that doesn’t mean rents have flat-lined everywhere. Though nationally and in the most expensive cities for renters prices have finally come to a full stop, there are still some holdouts—and it seems renters in smaller and mid-sized cities are not yet getting a break, on the contrary.
As we pointed out over the summer, just like almost any bubble, stagnating rents are undoubtedly the symptom of a massive, multi-year supply bubble in multi-family housing units sparked by, among other things, cheap borrowing costs for commercial builders. Per the chart below from Goldman Sachs, multi-family units under construction is now at record highs and have eclipsed the previous bubble peak by nearly 40%.
Read the entire article
National rents have barely moved through the entire peak rental season and into September, marking the longest period of stagnation in recent history — 4 consecutive months. Coming in at $1,354 for the month of September, the average rent is only 2.2 percent higher than this time last year. This is the slowest annual growth rate we’ve seen in more than six years — having reached a high point of 5.5%-5.6% peak growth around two years ago — a pretty good indicator that the rental market has entered calmer waters.
Still, that doesn’t mean rents have flat-lined everywhere. Though nationally and in the most expensive cities for renters prices have finally come to a full stop, there are still some holdouts—and it seems renters in smaller and mid-sized cities are not yet getting a break, on the contrary.
As we pointed out over the summer, just like almost any bubble, stagnating rents are undoubtedly the symptom of a massive, multi-year supply bubble in multi-family housing units sparked by, among other things, cheap borrowing costs for commercial builders. Per the chart below from Goldman Sachs, multi-family units under construction is now at record highs and have eclipsed the previous bubble peak by nearly 40%.
Read the entire article
October 9, 2017
Economic Slowdown Confirmed: The U.S. Economy Lost Jobs Last Month For The First Time In 7 Years
Don’t worry – even though the employment numbers are terrible the mainstream media insists that everything is going to be wonderful for the U.S. economy in the months ahead. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. economy lost 33,000 jobs during September. That was the first monthly decline in seven years, and as you will see below, overall 2017 is on pace for the slowest employment growth in at least five years. But the Bureau of Labor Statistics insists that the downturn in September was due to the chaos caused by Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma, and they are assuring us that happier times are right around the corner.
Economists were projecting that we would see an increase of around 80,000 jobs last month, and we need to add at least 150,000 jobs each month just to keep up with population growth. So the -33,000 number was a huge disappointment.
But even though we lost 33,000 jobs last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says that the unemployment rate fell from 4.4 percent to 4.2 percent.
Yes, I know that doesn’t make any sense at all, but that is what they are telling us.
Perhaps if several volcanoes go off inside this country, terrorists detonate a dirty bomb in one of our major cities and Godzilla invades the west coast next month the unemployment rate will drop all the way to zero.
Read the entire article
Economists were projecting that we would see an increase of around 80,000 jobs last month, and we need to add at least 150,000 jobs each month just to keep up with population growth. So the -33,000 number was a huge disappointment.
But even though we lost 33,000 jobs last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says that the unemployment rate fell from 4.4 percent to 4.2 percent.
Yes, I know that doesn’t make any sense at all, but that is what they are telling us.
Perhaps if several volcanoes go off inside this country, terrorists detonate a dirty bomb in one of our major cities and Godzilla invades the west coast next month the unemployment rate will drop all the way to zero.
Read the entire article
September 8, 2017
Toronto Home Price Bubble Bursts Into Bear Market
With surprise rate hike, Bank of
Canada turns against housing market...
Home
sales in the Greater Toronto Area, the largest housing market in Canada,
plunged 34.8% in August compared to a year ago, to 6,357 homes, with sales of
detached homes and semi-detached homes getting eviscerated:
Sales
by type:
Detached houses -41.6%
Semi-detached houses -37.3%
Townhouses -27.5%:
Condos -28.0%.
Even
as total sales plunged, the number of active listings of homes for sale
soared 65% year-over-year to 16,419, with 11,523 new listings added in
August, according to the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB).
“The
relationship between sales [plunging] and listings in the marketplace today
[soaring] suggests a balanced market,” the report explained, adding hopefully:
“If current conditions are sustained over the coming months, we
would expect to see year-over-year price growth normalize slightly above the
rate of inflation. However, if some buyers move from the sidelines back into
the marketplace, as TREB consumer research suggests may happen, an acceleration
in price growth could result if listings remain at current levels.”
June 16, 2017
We Are Getting Very Close To An Inverted Yield Curve – And If That Happens A Recession Is Essentially Guaranteed
If something happens seven times in a row, do you think that there is a pretty good chance that it will happen the eighth time too? Immediately prior to the last seven recessions, we have seen an inverted yield curve, and it looks like it is about to happen again for the very first time since the last financial crisis. For those of you that are not familiar with this terminology, when we are talking about a yield curve we are typically talking about the spread between two-year and ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yields. Normally, short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, but when investors get spooked about the economy this can reverse. Just before every single recession since 1960 the yield curve has “inverted”, and now we are getting dangerously close to it happening again for the first time in a decade.
On Thursday, the spread between two-year and ten-year Treasuries dropped to just 79 basis points. According to Business Insider, this is almost the tightest that the yield curve has been since 2007…
The spread between the yields on two-year and 10-year Treasurys fell to 79 basis points, or 0.79%, after Wednesday’s disappointing consumer-price and retail-sales data. The spread is currently within a few hundredths of a percentage point of being the tightest it has been since 2007.
Perhaps more notably, it is on a path to “inverting” — meaning it would cost more to borrow for the short term than the long term — for the first time since the months leading up to the financial crisis.
So why is an inverted yield curve such a big event? Here is how CNBC recently explained it…
Read the entire article
On Thursday, the spread between two-year and ten-year Treasuries dropped to just 79 basis points. According to Business Insider, this is almost the tightest that the yield curve has been since 2007…
The spread between the yields on two-year and 10-year Treasurys fell to 79 basis points, or 0.79%, after Wednesday’s disappointing consumer-price and retail-sales data. The spread is currently within a few hundredths of a percentage point of being the tightest it has been since 2007.
Perhaps more notably, it is on a path to “inverting” — meaning it would cost more to borrow for the short term than the long term — for the first time since the months leading up to the financial crisis.
So why is an inverted yield curve such a big event? Here is how CNBC recently explained it…
Read the entire article
February 9, 2017
Recession 2017? Things Are Happening That Usually Never Happen Unless A New Recession Is Beginning
Is the U.S. economy about to get slammed by a major recession? According to Gallup, U.S. economic confidence has soared to the highest level ever recorded, but meanwhile a whole host of key economic indicators are absolutely screaming that a new recession is beginning. And if the U.S. economy does officially enter recession territory in 2017, it certainly won’t be a shock, because the truth is that we are well overdue for one. Donald Trump has inherited quite an economic mess from Barack Obama, and it was probably inevitable that we were headed for a significant economic downturn no matter who won the election.
One of the key indicators to watch is average weekly hours. When the economy shifts into recession mode, employers tend to start cutting back hours, and that is happening right now. In fact, as Graham Summers has pointed out, we just witnessed the largest percentage decline in average weekly hours since the recession of 2008…
In addition to the decline in hours, Summers has suggested that there are a number of other reasons to believe that a new recession is here…
The fact is that the GDP growth of 4%-5% is not just around the corner. The US most likely slid into recession in the last three months. GDP growth collapsed in 4Q16, with a large portion of the “growth” coming from accounting gimmicks.
Consider the following:
Tax receipts indicate the US is in recession.
Gross private domestic investment indicates were are in a recession.
Retailers are showing that the US consumer is tapped out (see AMZN’s recent miss).
UPS, another economic bellweather, dramatically lowered 2017 forecasts.
Read the entire article
One of the key indicators to watch is average weekly hours. When the economy shifts into recession mode, employers tend to start cutting back hours, and that is happening right now. In fact, as Graham Summers has pointed out, we just witnessed the largest percentage decline in average weekly hours since the recession of 2008…
In addition to the decline in hours, Summers has suggested that there are a number of other reasons to believe that a new recession is here…
The fact is that the GDP growth of 4%-5% is not just around the corner. The US most likely slid into recession in the last three months. GDP growth collapsed in 4Q16, with a large portion of the “growth” coming from accounting gimmicks.
Consider the following:
Tax receipts indicate the US is in recession.
Gross private domestic investment indicates were are in a recession.
Retailers are showing that the US consumer is tapped out (see AMZN’s recent miss).
UPS, another economic bellweather, dramatically lowered 2017 forecasts.
Read the entire article
February 8, 2017
Goldman Stunned By Collapse In Gasoline Demand: "This Would Require A US Recession"
While energy traders remain focused on weekly changes in crude supply and demand, manifesting in shifts in inventory of which today's API data, which showed the second biggest inventory build in history, was a breathtaking example of how OPEC's "production cut" is clearly not working, a much more troubling datapoint was revealed by the Energy Information Administration last week when it reported implied gasoline demand.
To be sure, surging gasoline supply and inventories are hardly surprising or new: they remain a byproduct of the unprecedented global crude inventories leftover from two years of failed OPEC policy which resulted in a historic glut. Last January, overall crude runs were up 500,000 bpd as refiners shifted away from diesel and other products to gasoline to chase more attractive margins amid a mild winter and sluggish diesel demand. The move led to an overbuild of gasoline stocks that lingered into the summer, punishing margins when they should have been at their strongest. This January, crude runs are at historic levels, up by roughly 300,000 bpd over last year.
So yes, both gasoline stocks and supply remains at extremely high levels, but what set off alarm bells is not supply, but demand: the EIA last week reported that the 4-week average of gasoline supplied - or implied gasoline demand - in the United States was 8.2 million barrels per day, the lowest since February 2012. And, as Reuters adds, U.S. refiners are now facing the prospects of weakening gasoline demand for the first time in five years.
Unlike excess supply, which may have numerous factors, when it comes to a plunge in end product demand the implication can be only one: the US consumer is very ill, especially when considering that gasoline use has grown every year since 2012, despite fears that demand has topped out amid the growth of fuel efficient cars, urbanization and a graying population.
Read the entire article
To be sure, surging gasoline supply and inventories are hardly surprising or new: they remain a byproduct of the unprecedented global crude inventories leftover from two years of failed OPEC policy which resulted in a historic glut. Last January, overall crude runs were up 500,000 bpd as refiners shifted away from diesel and other products to gasoline to chase more attractive margins amid a mild winter and sluggish diesel demand. The move led to an overbuild of gasoline stocks that lingered into the summer, punishing margins when they should have been at their strongest. This January, crude runs are at historic levels, up by roughly 300,000 bpd over last year.
So yes, both gasoline stocks and supply remains at extremely high levels, but what set off alarm bells is not supply, but demand: the EIA last week reported that the 4-week average of gasoline supplied - or implied gasoline demand - in the United States was 8.2 million barrels per day, the lowest since February 2012. And, as Reuters adds, U.S. refiners are now facing the prospects of weakening gasoline demand for the first time in five years.
Unlike excess supply, which may have numerous factors, when it comes to a plunge in end product demand the implication can be only one: the US consumer is very ill, especially when considering that gasoline use has grown every year since 2012, despite fears that demand has topped out amid the growth of fuel efficient cars, urbanization and a graying population.
Read the entire article
April 15, 2016
U.S. Economy 2016: 3 Classic Recession Signals Are Flashing Red
Those that were hoping for an “economic renaissance” in the United States got some more bad news this week. It turns out that the U.S. economy is in significantly worse shape than the experts were projecting. Retail sales unexpectedly declined in March, total business sales have fallen again, and the inventory to sales ratio has hit the highest level since the last financial crisis. When you add these three classic recession signals to the 19 troubling numbers about the U.S. economy that I wrote about last week, it paints a very disturbing picture. Virtually all of the signs that we would expect to pop up during the early chapters of a major economic crisis have now appeared, and yet most Americans still appear to be clueless about what is happening.
Even I was surprised when the government reported that retail sales had actually fallen in March. Consumer spending is a very large part of our economy, and so if consumer spending is slowing down already that certainly does not bode well for the rest of 2016. The following comes from highly respected author Jim Quinn…
The Ivy League educated “expert” economists expected March retail sales to increase by 0.1%. They only missed by $6 billion, as retail sales FELL by 0.3%. They have fallen for three straight months. At least gasoline sales were strong, as prices have risen 22% since mid-February. That should do wonders for the finances of American households. If you exclude gasoline sales, retail sales fell by 0.4%. As the chart below reveals, the year over year change in retail sales has been at or near recessionary levels for most of 2015, and into 2016.
You can view the chart that he was referring to right here. In addition to a decline in retail sales, total business sales have also been falling, and this is another classic recession signal. The following comes from Wolf Richter…
Read the entire article
Even I was surprised when the government reported that retail sales had actually fallen in March. Consumer spending is a very large part of our economy, and so if consumer spending is slowing down already that certainly does not bode well for the rest of 2016. The following comes from highly respected author Jim Quinn…
The Ivy League educated “expert” economists expected March retail sales to increase by 0.1%. They only missed by $6 billion, as retail sales FELL by 0.3%. They have fallen for three straight months. At least gasoline sales were strong, as prices have risen 22% since mid-February. That should do wonders for the finances of American households. If you exclude gasoline sales, retail sales fell by 0.4%. As the chart below reveals, the year over year change in retail sales has been at or near recessionary levels for most of 2015, and into 2016.
You can view the chart that he was referring to right here. In addition to a decline in retail sales, total business sales have also been falling, and this is another classic recession signal. The following comes from Wolf Richter…
Read the entire article
February 23, 2016
Recession 2016: In Some States, A Very Deep Economic Downturn Has Already Arrived
Did you know that there are some U.S. states that have already officially fallen into recession? Economic activity all over the planet is in the process of slowing down, and there are some areas of the country that are really starting to feel the pain. In particular, any state that is heavily dependent on the energy industry is hurting right now. During the years immediately following the last recession, the energy industry was the primary engine for the growth of good paying jobs in America, but now that process is completely reversing. All over the U.S. energy companies are going under, and thousands upon thousands of good jobs are being lost.
On Sunday evening, Bloomberg published an article entitled “The U.S. States Where Recession Is Already a Reality“. The following is an excerpt from that article…
As economists size up the chances of the first nationwide slump since 2009, pockets of the country are already contracting. Four states — Alaska, North Dakota, West Virginia and Wyoming — are in a recession, and three others are at risk of prolonged declines, according to indexes of state economic performance tracked by Moody’s Analytics.
The three additional states that are “at risk of prolonged declines” are Louisiana, New Mexico and Oklahoma. What all of those seven states have in common is a strong dependence on the energy industry. Last year, 67 oil and gas companies in the United States filed for bankruptcy, and approximately 130,000 good paying energy jobs were lost.
Read the entire article
On Sunday evening, Bloomberg published an article entitled “The U.S. States Where Recession Is Already a Reality“. The following is an excerpt from that article…
As economists size up the chances of the first nationwide slump since 2009, pockets of the country are already contracting. Four states — Alaska, North Dakota, West Virginia and Wyoming — are in a recession, and three others are at risk of prolonged declines, according to indexes of state economic performance tracked by Moody’s Analytics.
The three additional states that are “at risk of prolonged declines” are Louisiana, New Mexico and Oklahoma. What all of those seven states have in common is a strong dependence on the energy industry. Last year, 67 oil and gas companies in the United States filed for bankruptcy, and approximately 130,000 good paying energy jobs were lost.
Read the entire article
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