May 15, 2019

China 'Green Shoots' Are Dead - Retail Sales, Industrial Production, & FAI Slump

On the back of one better than expected soft survey PMI print, the world became convinced that as green shoots emerged, China was about to be reborn into magnificent credit-fuelled expansion and would save the world.

Tonight, that narrative died - everything missed expectations:

Retail sales rose just 7.2% (against +8.7% in March) - lowest since May 2003 (the 7.2% year-on-year rise in retail sales is actually weaker than all the estimates. The lowest was 7.5%, and the median was 8.6%)

Industrial Production growth slumped from a hope-filled +6.5% YTD YoY in March to 6.2%.

Fixed Asset Investment slowed to just 6.1% YoY.

Not green shoot-y!

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